Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Knik River, AK

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 10:01AMSunset 3:44PM Thursday December 12, 2019 11:56 AM AKST (20:56 UTC) Moonrise 4:16PMMoonset 10:37AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 718 Am Akst Thu Dec 12 2019
Today..E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Tonight..E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
Fri..E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Fri night..E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sat through Mon..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Knik River, AK
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location: 61.36, -149     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 121428 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 528 AM AKST Thu Dec 12 2019

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

The upper level pattern has changed little since yesterday morning as a large North Pacific occluded cyclone in the Gulf remains the main driver of sensible weather across most of the region. In conjunction with a small closed upper high over the northeast slope of Alaska and a weak cold upper trough over the central Bering Sea, most of the southern mainland remains under the influence of broad easterly upper level flow. This pattern is supporting coastal rain along the Gulf Coast with strong downslope shadowing across most of the interior locations. The one exception has been across the Kuskokwim Delta where some light freezing rain and mixed precipitation is spilling over and downwind of the Kilbuck Mountains. Otherwise, the brunt of the deformation zone precipitation has shifted offshore from the Southwest coastline. The strongest pressure gradient remains over the Eastern Aleutians/western AKPEN where strong northwest winds gusting as high as 50-60 MPH continues. Southcentral weather is rather quiescent with some stratus and fog impacting the Copper Basin as well above average temps continue to dominate elsewhere.

MODEL DISCUSSION. The numerical weather models are in excellent agreement with the general synoptic pattern and sensible weather impacts through Saturday. They are also very well clustered with a strong 960s mb low moving across the Aleutian Chain beginning Friday. Forecast confidence is high.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions and northerly winds will persist.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2. Thu and Fri) . The pattern continues to be dominated by an upper 960s mb low near 54N due south of Seward. This low is vertically stacked and continues its slow drift north towards the Gulf Coast. The net effect is a dry offshore gradient across nearly all inland areas with continued onshore flow for the Gulf Coast. The result is dry conditions inland with just some mid and high clouds. The lone exception to this is over the Copper River Basin where low stratus and fog set up yesterday morning and continue to plague areas around Gulkana. It is quite a different story across the Gulf with widespread steady rain and continued gale force (approximately 40 mph) winds around the low center. Rain will continue from Kodiak Island up through Seward and into Western Prince William Sound. By tonight, a weak wave of energy will rotate around the parent low and through the Copper River Basin. We have increased PoPs to likely with this feature with decent model agreement. However, we do not expect more than roughly one inch of snow in any populated areas.

As the parent low draws closer and closer to the southern mainland on Fri, there will be increasing chances for some of the precipitation to drift a bit further inland from the coast. At this point, it still looks like much of the Cook Inlet will stay mostly dry due to cross barrier flow. However, parts of the interior Kenai Peninsula and over towards Thompson Pass will see light rain by late Fri night. Higher elevations could accumulate a couple inches of snow as the system drifts inland and weakens into the weekend.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2).

A slow moving area of low pressure over the western Gulf continues to bring gusty northwesterly winds to the Alaska Peninsula this morning, with the strongest winds occurring through the usual gaps and passes. Warm air overrunning colder air in place at the surface has produced showers across Southwest with some locations near the Kuskokwim Delta Coast seeing a brief period of freezing rain. Winds are expected to taper off by early Friday morning as the Gulf low tracks eastward. A weak ridge of high pressure briefly builds over the area Friday evening before a gale force front arrives by Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2).

While the eastern Bering remains under the influence of a low centered in the Gulf, the western Bering continues to see showery, northerly flow ahead of a strengthening low centered southwest of Shemya. Gusty northwesterly flow over the eastern Bering will eventually taper off by the evening as the Gulf low moves east. Meanwhile, a gale force front associated with a strengthening low reaches the western Aleutians this afternoon. The low strengthens and tracks eastward, reaching the central Aleutians by Friday night. A brief period of blowing snow is possible for Shemya early on Friday, however mixed precipitation is expected for the central and eastern Aleutians as warm southerly flow works its way in Friday night.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5).

For the Bering: Weather starts out quiet on Friday with a high pressure ridge in place over the Bering Sea. On Saturday, a strong low pressure system will skirt the southern side of the Central Aleutian Islands as it moves west to east. It will bring gale force winds to the area as it goes, exiting Sunday. Model agreement is good with this system and we are confident in the forecast.

For the Gulf of Alaska: A low will be present in the Western Gulf of Alaska on Friday, bring a large area of small craft advisory winds with isolated gales to much of the gulf. It will also keep sea states elevated. The low moves ashore over southwest AK Friday night, calming winds and waves for Saturday morning. Later Saturday into Sunday another front enters from the southwest, bringing gales and small craft advisories back to the gulf. We are confident in this forecast as model guidance looks to be on track.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7).

Models have come into better, though not perfect, agreement for the long term. Expect a continued active pattern over the Aleutians, while quieter weather will persist over Southcentral. Saturday, a low in the western Gulf of AK will continue to swing a series of weak fronts toward the North Gulf Coast, bringing periods of precipitation into Sunday. Precipitation will be concentrated on southeast facing slopes, mainly on the Kenai Peninsula and the Alaska Range. Meanwhile, surface high pressure over the Yukon and interior AK will strengthen, and conditions will trend colder over inland areas of the Southern Mainland.

Out west, a strong low south of the central Aleutians will swing an occluded front across the chain and generate a healthy round of precipitation over the Aleutians, the AKPEN and likely into the Southwest Mainland Saturday night into Sunday. Precipitation chances look highest in the Bristol Bay area, with the Kuskokwim Valley/Delta likely staying drier in offshore flow. As the occluded front pushes toward the Southwest Mainland, relatively cold air in place over the mainland will enhance the pressure gradient, and strong south/southeast winds are possible from Kamishak Bay to as far north as the Kilbuck Mountains. There's indication that a triple point low will form south of the AKPEN late Saturday, enhancing precipitation over Kodiak Island and along the south/southeast facing slopes of the Alaska/Aleutian Range. However, it's hard to have much certainty this far out and with run-to-run model inconsistencies.

As that secondary low pushes northeastward Sunday into Monday, expect a swath of precipitation and strong winds in the northern Gulf of Alaska. In addition, expect another round of precipitation along the eastern Kenai Peninsula Sunday night into Monday . then precipitation will likely spread towards Prince William Sound and eastward along the coast Monday.

Another low will approach the western Aleutians Monday, and push an occluded front across the chain through Tuesday. Since there's still some uncertainty with the progression of the low downstream, it's tough to discern how the upstream low will affect the Southwest Mainland. Models differ on whether the front will dissipate before reaching the mainland.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gale Warnings 155 170 172-174 176 351 352 119 120 131 FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . JA SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . MSO SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . KO MARINE/LONG TERM . BB/MM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 48 mi63 min Calm G 2.9 33°F 33°F991 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 89 mi63 min 45°F988.5 hPa

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Palmer, Palmer Municipal Airport, AK18 mi64 minNNW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy36°F21°F55%990.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAAQ

Wind History from AAQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N10N12NE10N8N8N9NE8NE8N9NE9N4CalmS4N5N53Calm3CalmN8N10N11
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Tide / Current Tables for Sunrise, Turnagain Arm, Alaska
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Sunrise
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:55 AM AKST     -2.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:00 AM AKST     33.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:00 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:33 AM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:58 PM AKST     4.87 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:42 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:23 PM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:41 PM AKST     34.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.16.30.9-25.61624.830.733.231.527.522.116.210.86.94.911.722.328.833.634.631.425.719.6

Tide / Current Tables for Sunrise, Turnagain Arm #11, Alaska
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Sunrise
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:55 AM AKST     -2.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:00 AM AKST     33.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:00 AM AKST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:33 AM AKST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:58 PM AKST     4.87 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:42 PM AKST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:23 PM AKST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:41 PM AKST     34.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.16.30.9-25.61624.830.733.231.527.522.116.210.86.94.911.722.328.833.634.631.425.719.6

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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