Monday, June1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Knik River, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 4:30AMSunset 11:24PM Monday June 1, 2020 4:35 PM AKDT (00:35 UTC) Moonrise 4:04PMMoonset 3:06AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 300 Pm Akdt Mon Jun 1 2020
Tonight..E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Tue..E wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Tue night..E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Wed..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed night..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu through Sat..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Knik River, AK
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location: 61.36, -149     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 012346 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 346 PM AKDT Mon Jun 1 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. A vertically stacked low south of the Alaska Peninsula has a front stretching out of it into the Gulf of Alaska. A triple point low is developing in the central Gulf along this front today and can be seen in satellite imagery.

A weak upper level wave brought some light rain to the Copper River Basin early this morning and is continuing to weaken as it moves westward. Convective potential over Southcentral and Southwest Alaska remains low this afternoon and evening with the only moderately unstable air close to the Alaska Range.

A weak ridge of high surface pressure is enhancing along the mountains of the north Gulf of Alaska coast. This is bringing in the gusty southerly-to-easterly winds to the typical channeled areas such as Turnagain Arm, the Knik River, and along the Copper River.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models remain in good synoptic agreement through most of the week. As has been the case recently, the synoptic agreement is good, but timing the propagation of upper level waves and assessing the convective parameters is where the model differences creep in. Southwest mainland Alaska is an area where there is a large difference in timing of an upper level wave moving from north-to-south Wednesday where the NAM is faster and pushes the wave to the south much farther as well. This will impact the convective potential due to the way this wave develops and moves.

AVIATION. PANC . VFR conditions will persist. Gusty southerly winds are expected during the afternoon and evening both today and Tuesday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). An upper level trough remains in place along the northern Gulf coast. This will allow the easterly wave pattern to continue through the middle of the week with on and off showers expected. Southeasterly winds through the usual places including Turnagain Arm, Knik River Valley, and the Copper River Basin will pick up this evening before diminishing overnight as a front approaches the northern Gulf coast. A weak surface low will move over the Cook Inlet area late Tuesday while a coastal ridge in place along the northern Gulf coast strengthens. This will lead to another round of gusty southeasterly winds Tuesday night for the usual places including Turnagain Arm, Knik River Valley, and the Copper River Basin. Meanwhile, diurnal heating on Tuesday may generate enough instability over the northern Copper River Basin and Talkeetna mountains to produce an isolated thunderstorm or two Tuesday afternoon and evening. By Wednesday, a low meandering in the Gulf begins to move toward the southeastern Gulf. This will allow several upper level waves to pass over Southcentral from east to west, resulting in continued unsettled and showery conditions for midweek.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2). A relatively quiet few days are on tap for southwest Alaska. Residual moisture across the region, coupled with weak transient short waves should spark a few showers this afternoon. Most of the activity should remain across the Alaska Range and Kusko mountains, but non-mountain showers look to be confined to a corridor between Stuyahok and Sparrevohn, through the Kilbucks. With the thermal trough deep into the interior of Alaska, and no appreciable upper level dynamics, thunderstorm activity should remain at bay.

Tuesday afternoon is will sing a different song across the Lower Kuskokwim Valley (generally west of Stony River) as a weak shortwave will drop in from the Yukon and Upper Kusko Valleys.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2). The stationary low south of Dutch Harbor is continuing to bring rain and gusty winds to the central and eastern Aleutians. This low will continue to drift east and weaken. Winds will taper off and rainfall will continue with this eastward track towards the Alaska Peninsula Tuesday.

MARINE (Days 3-5: Thursday through Saturday). Generally quiet weather is expected throughout the forecast period for all marine areas with light winds and low waves. Westerly flow will prevail across the Bering Thursday through Saturday. A weak low pressure system located near the southern Gulf of Alaska Thursday morning will continue moving southeastward while dissipating with general northerly winds expected for much of the Gulf Thursday afternoon through Saturday with waves diminishing Thursday evening.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4-7: Friday through Tuesday). Models remain in general good agreement for Friday and Saturday that a weak upper level ridge of high pressure will be present over the mainland of Alaska with a vertically stacked low present over the northern Bering Sea. This will bring unsettled weather to Southwest Alaska with the chance for showers leading to slightly below normal temperatures for Friday and Saturday. Generally quiet weather is expected for Southcentral and the Copper River Basin Friday and Saturday, although low pressure over the Gulf may allow for weak easterly waves to move across the mountain ranges across Southcentral leading to the chance for showers each afternoon. Temperatures are expected to be above normal for Friday and Saturday across Southcentral and the Copper River Basin.

Differences emerge beyond Saturday with the ECMWF trying to develop a cut-off low over the Bering early Sunday and then moving it slowly to the south and the east. The ECMWF is faster in developing this low and stronger. The GFS on the other hand is stronger with the ridge building over the interior of Alaska and doesn't develop the low the ECMWF was showing until later and further south. The forecast period for Sunday through Tuesday remains uncertain in regards to the sensible weather leading to low confidence in the forecast. The strength of these upper level features and placement will be key to the sensible weather for the second half of the weekend into early next week.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . NONE. MARINE . Gale Warning 119 120. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . EZ SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . KO SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . SS MARINE/LONG TERM . MV


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 48 mi48 min SW 5.1 G 6 57°F 51°F1002.2 hPa
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 89 mi54 min 51°F1002.2 hPa

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Palmer, Palmer Municipal Airport, AK18 mi43 minSE 19 G 2410.00 miOvercast and Breezy60°F37°F42%1001.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAAQ

Wind History from AAQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6NE6N9NE4N6SE6CalmE6NE56N5NE45NE5N5E4E7E5SE11SE13SE13SE14SE14SE19
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1 day agoSE9
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SE8E5E3CalmSE3CalmCalmN4CalmS3SE3S3CalmE3SW5E4E5SE6SE6SE4
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Tide / Current Tables for Sunrise, Turnagain Arm, Alaska
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Sunrise
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:07 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:32 AM AKDT     33.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:36 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:57 AM AKDT     1.93 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:58 PM AKDT     31.00 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:05 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:16 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.614.222.428.832.632.829.924.819.213.58.33.81.96.115.924.129.43129.625.42014.29.24.8

Tide / Current Tables for Sunrise, Turnagain Arm #11, Alaska
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Sunrise
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:07 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:32 AM AKDT     33.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:36 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:57 AM AKDT     1.93 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:58 PM AKDT     31.00 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:05 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:16 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.614.222.428.832.632.829.924.819.213.58.33.81.96.115.924.129.43129.625.42014.29.24.8

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.