Tuesday, December1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Knik River, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 9:41AMSunset 3:55PM Monday November 30, 2020 10:57 PM AKST (07:57 UTC) Moonrise 4:01PMMoonset 10:11AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 331 Pm Akst Mon Nov 30 2020
.gale warning tonight...
Tonight..E wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas building to 5 ft then subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
Tue..E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
Tue night..E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
Wed..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed night..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Knik River, AK
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location: 61.36, -149     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 010143 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 443 PM AKST Mon Nov 30 2020

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS. A vertically stacked storm force low about 500 mb south of the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula is embedded within a high amplitude trough. A strong upper level jet streak extends northward up the front side of this trough across the western Gulf of Alaska. A small, but potent short-wave is noted in water vapor imagery riding this jet northward toward Southcentral Alaska. At the surface, a triple point low has formed just south of the Alaska Peninsula and is tracking slowly northward along the Alaska Peninsula. A frontal system extending eastward from this low into the Gulf is tracking northward toward Southcentral, producing gale to storm force winds. Northerly gales are widespread behind the surface low from the eastern Bering Sea southward to the North Pacific. The airmass in place out ahead of the low and frontal system is quite cold. Thus, precipitation spreading northward across the southern mainland this afternoon is falling as all snow. However, much warmer air is headed northward across the Gulf behind the front, which has resulted in a changeover from snow to rain for Kodiak Island.

Conditions are relatively quiet across the central to western Bering Sea and Aleutians, with just some snow showers and locally gusty winds.

MODEL DISCUSSION. Models are in good agreement with large scale features through Tuesday night. There are however some significant forecast challenges, primarily that of precipitation type over Southcentral Alaska the next 24 hours. Winds with the strong front and warm air advection behind the front will lead to a general warm-up in temperatures and transition in precipitation types from snow to mixed precipitation or rain. Those areas which see significant winds will likely warm above freezing, while those areas protected from the wind will hold in longer with freezing temperatures at the surface. While overall forecast confidence is about average, confidence in the details of temperature and precipitation type is below average.

Model agreement breaks down beginning Wednesday, but do not see any high impact weather on the horizon once the current storm winds down.

AVIATION. PANC . The forecast for the next 12 hours is quite challenging. First off, easterly winds will continue to strengthen across the Kenai and Chugach Mountains this afternoon into early evening as a front approaches from the Gulf, leading to low level wind shear at the terminal. Normally this would lead to downslope drying as well. However, with southerly flow aloft, abundant moisture transport, and a potent short-wave, there is a good chance for a brief period of snow between about 03Z and 07Z, which could temporarily reduce ceiling and vis.

The front will pass through around 06z, with much warmer air moving in aloft. Downslope flow will weaken, with southerly flow setting up through most of the column. Some guidance shows a southeasterly wind making it into the terminal, but with a surface low still in the Bristol Bay area, think the northerly wind may hold in at the surface. If so, then the surface temperature will remain below freezing and there is potential for a period of light freezing rain Tuesday morning. If the southeast winds were to come in, then temperatures would warm above freezing. Downslope flow looks like it will then strengthen again beginning around 18Z, bringing an end to any precipitation.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 2: Today through Wednesday) .

The well advertised storm system is underway across Southcentral. Snow and blowing snow was being observed in and around Homer with these conditions expected to move northward to the Sterling Highway through the remainder of the afternoon and into this evening. As a result, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 9 pm this evening for snow and blowing snow with 1-4 inches of snow accumulation. Conditions will begin to improve after about 9 pm this evening before the next round of precipitation moves into the area Tuesday though in the form of rain as temperatures warm up into the upper 30s and low 40s. The same frontal system bringing this precipitation currently to the Kenai Peninsula is expected to move through the Anchorage Bowl early this evening that is anticipated to lower visibilities for a short time period and result in up to about a half inch on the west side of Anchorage to as much as 2 inches across the Anchorage Hillside especially Glen Alps.

The front continues moving north with a storm force barrier jet expected through the evening hours with hurricane force gusts to 75 kts near the coast. As the front continues moving northward, winds will continue to increase in Turnagain Arm and the Anchorage Hillside with winds peaking around 9 pm this evening. Wind gusts to 60 mph are expected in Turnagain Arm and on the Anchorage Hillside. Winds will rapidly diminish after 9 pm once the front lifts on through, though, winds will remain gusty into Tuesday with 30-40 mph gusts expected. The Matanuska Valley and the Knik River Valley wind were already picking up throughout the day as well with these winds expected to continue through the night. The Matanuska Valley wind is expected to diminish Tuesday morning but the Knik River Valley wind is expected to continue throughout the day Tuesday. As a result of these winds, temperatures across the Matanuska Valley are expected to rapidly warm Tuesday into the low 40s. Warming temperatures combined with any rain that falls will create for hazardous travel conditions for the Tuesday morning commute.

A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the northern and western Susitna Valley this evening through Wednesday afternoon. Significant snowfall accumulations remain expected for areas north and west of Talkeetna including the Parks Highway from Chulitna to Cantwell. One addition to the warning was the risk for freezing rain across the lower Susitna Valley especially around Willow where a tenth to two tenths of an inch of ice accumulation are expected. Cold air is expected to remain at the surface as warm air moves in aloft through a deep layer creating the atmospheric profile for freezing rain. The timing on this will be 3 am Tuesday to 12 pm Tuesday before temperatures finally warm above freezing. Conditions will remain hazardous though even when temperatures finally warm up.

Heavy precipitation is expected across Thompson Pass and Turnagain Pass as well as all the mountain ranges around Southcentral except for Hatcher Pass where significant snow isnt't expected as the flow through the atmosphere doesn't favor this area for very heavy snowfall. Rising snow levels tonight through Tuesday and into Tuesday night in accordance with heavy precipitation in the form of snow changing to rain will create the risk for avalanche conditions through the passes.

Seward is also expecting upwards of 5 inches of precipitation from this system. As a result, a flood advisory is in effect for this area through this evening.

Lastly, colder air is expected to move back into Southcentral on Wednesday as the upper level trough moves on through the region. There is the potential for a period of snow Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night that may result in a few inches of snow across Anchorage as this lifts through. Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune this part of the forecast.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2: Monday afternoon through Wednesday) .

Models are in much better agreement with the surface low today as they have the surface low tracking near the AKPEN and moving near King Salmon by this evening. This slight shift has moved the heaviest snowfall area from just north of Dillingham to east of Aniak. The heaviest of snow is expected from Sleetmute and areas east as well as Koliganek and New Stuyahok. Mainly looking at 6 to 8 inches with localized areas of up to 10 inches. Dillingham and Aniak will see lesser amount of 3 to 5 inches. Winds will also be gusty out of the north up to 35 to 40 mph so blowing snow will be an issue especially for Dillingham and areas closer to the water, this is why Dillingham and others with lesser snow amounts are included in the winter weather advisory. The main shortwave energy will track into the interior by Tuesday morning with most of the heavier snow ending. The parent low near the Bering Strait with a trough extending south along the west coast of Alaska will support a surface front across eastern parts of the Bristol Bay region Tuesday into Wednesday. This front will continue to produce areas of light snow from near Iliamna to areas east of Sleetmute with several inches of snow expected through Wednesday. As the trough slowly pushes east across Southwest Alaska on Wednesday the light snow will gradually end by Wednesday evening.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2: Monday afternoon through Wednesday) .

As the low tracks inland tonight a northerly cold air advection pattern sets up across much of the Bering and Aleutians through Tuesday with snow showers, and light accumulations in most populated areas, generally an inch or less. Wednesday high pressure will dip down from Russia into the northern Bering and the Pribilof Islands with light winds and less precipitation and possibly some patchy fog, but did not mention anything in grids as there is uncertainty due to possible cloud cover. Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday a complex area of low pressure systems moves into the western Aleutians and central Aleutians by Wednesday with areas of light snow or rain/snow mix, but no significant impacts as the winds will remain at small craft or less through Wednesday.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5).

Gulf of Alaska: The remnants of low pressure linger to start Thursday, but it is on its way out. The Gulf of Alaska then quiets for the most part. Cooler air filters back into Gulf, which will cause gusty winds through gaps and passes along the Western Gulf, including through Kamishak Bay and the Kennedy Entrance. Wind direction then becomes generally northerly through the weekend. The Gulf continues to remain quiet with no major weather systems in our forecast area during this time.

Bering Sea: The Bering starts out quiet with high pressure in place. Flow then becomes easterly for the weekend and winds will increase to small craft advisory level. This is due to a couple weak lows moving through the North Pacific, just south of the Aleutians. Confidence is not high with the placement of these lows due poor model guidance, so wind speeds may need some adjusting. However, we can anticipate no impactful low pressure systems moving through the Bering.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7).

We are still expecting a pattern shift to occur late this week, with the weather noticeably changing starting Thursday. Southerly flow aloft supporting above average temperatures in Southcentral AK will push off to the east and allow cooler, more seasonable temperatures to return. Shortwave ridging looks to develop over Southwest AK. An upper level low should exist in just south of the Central Aleutians. As we progress into the weekend, a key difference emerges from yesterday in that model guidance has back off the shortwave ridge phasing with high pressure in the Western U.S. There are still hints of it there, but it's more fuzzy now. Longwave troughing still looks to return to the Bering Sea.

Since models are less agreement than they are yesterday, not much can be said for starting to focus in on a forecast solution for the longterm. This means we can only look out a few days at most to discern specific weather features. Analyzing the long range today we do know the weather pattern stays busy. So, we can expect a pattern shift with continued active weather for our forecast area. Due to significant model discrepancies, that's about all we can say for now.


AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Winter Storm Warning 145 Winter Weather Advisory 121 152 161 Flood Advisory 125 MARINE . Storm Warning 119 120 125 130 131 351. Gale Warning 128 129 139 140 141 352 155 165 170 171 172 173 174 180 181 414. Heavy Freezing Spray 160 180 181. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.



SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . SEB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . MV SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . RC MARINE/LONG TERM . BB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 48 mi57 min NW 12 G 15 29°F 31°F973.2 hPa (-2.4)
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 54 mi67 min N 14 G 18 34°F 41°F1 ft979.1 hPa (-2.4)34°F
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 89 mi57 min 44°F973.3 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Palmer, Palmer Municipal Airport, AK18 mi64 minE 17 G 3210.00 miOvercast39°F28°F65%973.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAAQ

Wind History from AAQ (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Sunrise, Turnagain Arm, Alaska
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Sunrise
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:26 AM AKST     -1.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:30 AM AKST     33.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:42 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:28 AM AKST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:25 PM AKST     5.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:51 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:32 PM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:06 PM AKST     34.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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13.78.73.8-0.60.911.320.928.232.532.829.824.919.113.595.87.317.925.631.334.132.62822.1

Tide / Current Tables for Sunrise, Turnagain Arm #11, Alaska
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Sunrise
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:26 AM AKST     -1.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:30 AM AKST     33.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:42 AM AKST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:28 AM AKST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:25 PM AKST     5.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:51 PM AKST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:32 PM AKST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:06 PM AKST     34.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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13.78.73.8-0.60.911.320.928.232.532.829.824.919.113.595.87.317.925.631.334.132.62822.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.