Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Knik River, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 9:46PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 4:22 PM AKDT (00:22 UTC) Moonrise 10:09PMMoonset 11:21AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 251 Pm Akdt Tue Aug 20 2019
Tonight..W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Areas of smoke.
Wed..W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Areas of smoke.
Wed night..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu night..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri through Sat..W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Knik River, AK
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location: 61.36, -149     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak68 pafc 202329
afdafc
southcentral and southwest alaska forecast discussion
national weather service anchorage ak
329 pm akdt Tue aug 20 2019

Analysis and upper levels
An upper level low over the northern yukon territory has a trough
extending along the alcan border and into the northeastern gulf
of alaska. With the upper level ridge axis extending from eastern
russia and eastward into the interior of the state there is a
north-to-northwesterly flow aloft over southcentral and southwest
alaska today. An upper level wave embedded in the northwest flow
aloft is tracking across bristol bay and into the western gulf of
alaska today bringing in some light rainfall to these areas.

The vertically stacked low to the south of kiska is the strongest
feature over the forecast area this afternoon with the front
associated with it extending to the eastern aleutians. Being
vertically stacked, this low will be weakening though the jet
stream running to the south of it will develop the series of
triple point lows that will become more of a factor as the week
progresses.

Model discussion
The model agreement remains very good through the remainder of the
week. An uncertainty with the triple-point low development in the
gulf on Thursday looks to be mostly resolved. The bigger concern
is with the details of the low level winds and the details that
will drive the smoke movement especially in the cook inlet and
mat-su regions.

Aviation
Panc... Smoke will remain the big uncertainty for the taf. It does
still look like the smoke should diminish some at the airport over
the course of the evening due to a shift in the low level winds.

However, there is still enough widespread smoke that some will
likely remain over the airport though it looks less likely to
bring in the lower ceilings or visibilities that it did last night
into this morning.

Fire weather
We are still expecting a slow increase in rh values across
southcentral alaska over the course of the week to go along with
the more seasonal temperatures.

Light winds tonight will allow an inversion to develop over a good
part of the kenai peninsula, anchorage bowl and mat-su valleys.

This may trap thicker smoke again over the area overnight into
Wednesday morning.

The item of most interest will be the winds Wednesday evening
into Thursday afternoon where east-to-southeast winds will
develop through channeled terrain such as turnagain arm and kenai
lake and cooper landing which could impact fire conditions at that
time at the swan lake fire.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3)
Scattered showers will remain over kodiak island through the
evening hours as a shortwave continues to dig south toward the
western gulf. Across the southcentral mainland, dry conditions
with generally light winds will persist through the next 24 hours
or so with only scattered clouds and isolated showers over the
mountains. Areas of smoke will linger across the kenai peninsula
north through the mat-su valleys through at least Thursday due to
light and variable surface winds. The worst of the smoke,however,
should stay away from the anchorage bowl tonight through early
tomorrow morning as a weak westerly flow aloft splits with more of
a southwesterly push up the susitna valley and a northwesterly
push across the kenai peninsula.

By late Wednesday into Thursday, a broad area of low pressure will
move into the gulf. This system will spread some showers along
the coast and increase southeasterly winds through favored gap
locations, including turnagain arm, portage valley, and portions
of the kenai peninsula. Clouds and the chance for showers will
then increase Thursday and Thursday night as an upper-level
shortwave drops south from the interior.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 through 3)
The overall blocking pattern that has been in place over the past
few days continues to break down as a low in the western bering
pushes its front across the central aleutians and bering. Showers
over the bristol bay area will diminish through the evening hours
associated with a trough dropping down over mainland alaska. Dry
air on the back side of this front will lead to drying conditions
through Thursday, with a chance of showers returning on Friday
along the alaska range and bristol bay region.

Short term forecast bering sea aleutians (days 1 and 3)
A low south of the western aleutians continues to bring gale
force winds to the western bering and aleutians through the
evening hours. These winds will then weaken to small craft
advisory through Wednesday afternoon while the low begins to
dissipate. As the associated front continues to move eastward, a
triple point low will develop south of the aleutian chain between
dutch harbor and sand point. This low will then become the
dominant feature as it continues to push its front into the
western gulf by Wednesday night. Though weaker than the original
low, small craft advisory winds and rain will be expected with
this feature as well.

Marine (days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday)
A low in the gulf will produce easterly small craft winds and
possible low-end gales along the northern gulf coast as it tracks
eastward through Friday. Behind the low, westerly winds return to
the gulf through the weekend. Meanwhile out west, northerly small
craft winds are expected over the eastern bering while a ridge of
high pressure persists over the western bering.

.Long term forecast (days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

there is increasing confidence that the long term forecast
includes an active pattern over the southern mainland while more
stable conditions will persist over the bering. A longwave trough
in place over much of the state will allow several upper level
waves to propagate across the southern mainland. Northerly flow is
expected along the western coast of the state through the weekend.

There is increasing confidence regarding the arrival of a north
pacific low entering the western gulf by Monday afternoon, however
models solutions continue to disagree on the strength and track
of this low.

Afc watches warnings advisories
Public... None.

Marine... Gale warning 178.

Fire weather... None.

Synopsis and model discussion... Ez
southcentral alaska... Tm
southwest alaska bering sea aleutians... Ah
marine long term... Ko


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 48 mi58 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 59°F 58°F1008 hPa
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 55 mi32 min NE 3.9 G 3.9 57°F 59°F1007.2 hPa (-1.8)46°F
SWLA2 - 9455090- Seward, AK 89 mi58 min 58°F1006.6 hPa

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Palmer, Palmer Municipal Airport, AK18 mi89 minSW 54.00 miSmoke61°F41°F48%1007.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAAQ

Wind History from AAQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3SW7--------------NW3N5N4N3N5N6N5CalmNW3CalmSE4----SW53
1 day agoNE15
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Tide / Current Tables for Sunrise, Turnagain Arm, Alaska
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Sunrise
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Tue -- 06:20 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:32 AM AKDT     1.55 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:21 AM AKDT     31.78 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:22 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:41 PM AKDT     2.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:40 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:11 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:39 PM AKDT     33.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.227.82216.311.37.12.63.113.322.128.131.431.127.622.71711.26.43.22.611.221.128.232.1

Tide / Current Tables for Sunrise, Turnagain Arm #11, Alaska
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Sunrise
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:20 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:32 AM AKDT     1.55 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:21 AM AKDT     31.78 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:22 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:41 PM AKDT     2.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:40 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:11 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:39 PM AKDT     33.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.227.82216.311.37.12.63.113.322.128.131.431.127.622.71711.26.43.22.611.221.128.232.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Kenai, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.