Saturday, April10, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wasilla, AK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 9:11PM Saturday April 10, 2021 4:10 AM AKDT (12:10 UTC) Moonrise 6:25AMMoonset 6:26PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 344 Am Akdt Sat Apr 10 2021
.heavy freezing spray warning today...
Today..W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. Gusts to 30 kt near whittier early. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Heavy freezing spray early. Snow in the afternoon.
Tonight..Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
Sun..E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
Sun night..E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue through Wed..E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wasilla, AK
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location: 61.58, -149.49     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXAK68 PAFC 100116 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 516 PM AKDT Fri Apr 9 2021

ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS.

Low pressure that traversed our forecast area yesterday has moved to the Northeast Gulf of Alaska and become nearly stationary. This has provided a sustained northerly pull of cold air behind the low through much of Alaska, including our forecast area. Record cold temperatures for many locations overnight are a result. Strong winds associated with this influx of cold air are starting to subside, leading to the expiration of the high wind warnings this afternoon. However, surface observations and ASCAT imagery show continued gusty winds through gaps and passes along the coast.

Out in the Bering, the next large low pressure system is pushing ashore in Southwest AK, after moving through the Pribilofs and producing near blizzard conditions there. While the front from this system is impacting Southwest AK, it has become quite detached from the low center which is located just west of Attu Island - all the way in the Western Bering. Thus, this system encompasses the entirety of the Bering.

The above surface conditions are supported in the upper levels with a busy synoptic pattern. A longwave trough and anchoring 500 mb low are located along the ALCAN border with the anchoring low in the Fortymile Country. A shortwave ridge is located over Southwest AK. This couplet is providing strong northwesterly flow, supporting the movement of the arctic air mass into Southern AK. Another trough exists in the Bering Sea, sandwiching the ridge and supporting the broad surface low there.

MODEL DISCUSSION.

Models perform well until Monday. They are in good agreement on developing a long wave trough over the Bering and upper level ridge over mainland AK going into Monday. However, on Monday models begin to diverge on placement of the upper level embedded within the trough over the Bering. This will affect timing and placement of frontal features at the surface that this low will be supporting. Models have better agreement over Southcentral AK at least. So, moderate confidence to start next week and expect adjustments in the forecast, especially over the Bering and in Southwest AK.

AVIATION. PANC . Northerly winds will continue to slacken over the airfield through the evening. VFR conditions will persist with skies clear and unrestricted visibility. Some snow may move into the vicinity midday Saturday, but conditions are expected to remain VFR.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3).

This morning at the National Weather Service Office in Anchorage the temperature bottomed out at 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit. Expect one more day of brutally cold air from the arctic intrusion. Sunday Anchorage will get into the 30s and Monday Anchorage will reach the 40s. Also noteworthy, Valdez had a peak wind of 85 MPH this morning and Thompson Pass had a peak wind of 96 MPH.

In satellite imagery, a front pushing across the Bering has a tropical connection entrained in it. This system will reach the western Gulf and Kodiak Island Saturday morning. A lobe of vorticity will get ejected from the parent upper low and move over portions of Southcentral. The possibility of scattered light snow is actively being monitored for Southcentral on Saturday. A second round of upper level energy will get kicked out of the same parent upper low in the Bering and move towards Southcentral late Saturday and Sunday. The expectation is that this event will bring the aforementioned modified tropical air to portions of Southcentral. Heavy wet snow is expected for the mountains of Prince William Sound/Eastern Kenai. Unless the models change, downslope flow will keep Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley dry on Sunday and Monday morning. But by Monday afternoon, its 50/50 as to whether Anchorage and the Mat Valley will get precipitation.

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Today through Sunday).

An Arctic air mass will continue to retreat across the region as a front moving onshore brings another round of blizzard conditions to the Kuskokwim Delta, mainly along coastal locations from Kipnuk to Hooper Bay. Falling snow of up to 8 inches will accompany the front across the same area, with lesser amounts of 3 to 5 inches expected between Dillingham and Goodnews Bay. Winter weather headlines are in effect beginning this evening into Saturday morning, with a blizzard warning for the Y-K Delta and a Winter Weather Advisory for north and west of Bristol Bay.

The initial front will quickly degrade as it moves inland Saturday morning, ending the first round of snow and blowing snow. However, another front will be right on the heels of the first, reaching the Southwest coast by Saturday evening. Persistent southwest flow and warm air advection will follow the initial front, leading to questions as to how much precipitation with the second frontal passage will fall in the form of snow. Hence, mixing with rain is possible for the lowest elevations and coastal areas by late Saturday night into Sunday. Expect a heavy, wet snowfall for the inland areas of the Y-K Delta and Bristol Bay that remain cold enough for snow through Sunday as temperatures warm to near or even above freezing during the daytime hours. This milder air would also act to limit the potential for blowing snow near the coast compared to this evening's frontal passage. Stay tuned to the forecast as this potential for a second round for snow/mix becomes more defined.

SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Today through Sunday).

A front will track east to west across the central Bering today bringing blizzard conditions to the Pribilofs this morning. Light snow is likely across the Aleutians as well. Precipitation will change to rain in southwesterly winds behind the front. A broad low will slowly track across the western Bering through the weekend, continuing the unsettled pattern and leading to widespread rain/snow showers.

A front will move onshore over Southwest Alaska by late tonight, southeast gales becoming southwest small craft or lower over the eastern Bering by early Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a low over the western Bering will bring southwesterly gales to low end storms near and south of the Western Aleutians through this evening. This low should quickly weaken to gale force as it drifts towards Nunivak Island over the course of the weekend, with the strongest winds remaining north of St Matthew Island through Sunday. The low will also send a second, fast-moving front across the southern and eastern Bering, bringing another round or rain and snow as it moves swiftly towards Southwest Alaska by Sunday morning.

MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday).

Bering Sea/Aleutians

A broad area of low pressure will remain centered over the northern Bering Sea on Monday. Winds are expected to remain below gale force with no high seas expected.

Gulf of Alaska

A front over the northern Gulf of Alaska will result in gale force southeasterly winds across the coastal waters of the north central Gulf of Alaska. A front associated with a low Tue will bring another round of easterly gale force winds throughout the coastal waters.

Long Term Forecast (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday).

The pattern will be amplified as an upper level low moves over the Bering Sea on Tuesday while upper level ridging extends across the eastern Alaskan mainland near the AlCan border. This low will then move southeastward into the North Pacific on Friday. There is good ensemble agreement that onshore flow and higher precipitable water values are expected Tuesday and Wednesday as a front associated with this low moves across the northern Gulf of Alaska into Southcentral Alaska. This will allow for an increased chance of rain along the coast and snow in more inland locations such as Turnagain Pass Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. Due to the prevailing flow being southeasterly, it is likely the Anchorage Bowl will have cloudy skies, though little or no precipitation due to downsloping off the Chugach Mountains. The precipitation associated with this front will taper off across Southcentral Alaska Wednesday afternoon and evening. Teleconnections support broad upper level ridging across the Bering Sea and Alaska mainland Thursday afternoon onward. Due to the dynamics of the aforementioned upper level low, there is good ensemble agreement of a Rex Block forming over the Alaska mainland and Bering Sea being under the upper level ridge Thursday and Friday. The significance of the Rex Block is the upper ridge will become more pronounced and is likely to persist for a longer period of time. This upper level ridge will allow for a moderation of the cold airmass and allow for more sunshine than clouds across the Alaska mainland.

AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PUBLIC . Blizzard Warning 155. Winter Weather Advisory 141 161. MARINE . Gale 119 120 125 127 128 130 131 150-170 172 173 175-177 180-185 Freezing Spray 119 121 130 139-141 160 180 185. FIRE WEATHER . NONE.

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION . BB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA . PJS SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS . AS MARINE/LONG TERM . ED


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANTA2 - 9455920 - Anchorage, AK 32 mi70 min N 9.9 G 14 10°F 30°F1025.6 hPa (+0.6)
46081 - Western Prince William Sound 84 mi80 min W 21 G 29 22°F 41°F2 ft1019.4 hPa (+1.0)3°F

Wind History for Anchorage, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wasilla, Wasilla Airport, AK2 mi74 minN 010.00 miFair0°F-16°F46%1025.9 hPa
Birchwood, Birchwood Airport, AK11 mi74 minN 010.00 miFair-3°F-13°F61%1026.4 hPa
Palmer, Palmer Municipal Airport, AK21 mi77 minNE 16 G 2010.00 miFair11°F-18°F25%1022.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for PAWS

Wind History from AWS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW125533W54NW74CalmE10E9
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1 day agoNE9N43N5W8W5W5W13
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2 days agoE5E3E5E4E6E5E6E8NE6NE3SE4SE4CalmE6E7E6CalmE4E4E5NE14
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Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Alaska
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Anchorage
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Sat -- 01:49 AM AKDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:52 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:26 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:31 AM AKDT     29.42 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:08 PM AKDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:28 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:38 PM AKDT     29.16 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:10 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.33.10.8715.221.425.828.92925.820.514.89.95.20.54.413.119.824.928.328.925.620.715.4

Tide / Current Tables for Anchorage, Alaska (2) (expired 1999-08-03)
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Anchorage
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:49 AM AKDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:52 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:26 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:31 AM AKDT     29.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:08 PM AKDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:28 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:38 PM AKDT     28.89 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:10 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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72.80.56.714.921.125.528.628.725.520.214.59.64.90.24.212.919.524.628.128.625.420.415.1

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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