Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Toksook Bay, AK
July 3, 2024 5:28 AM AKDT (13:28 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 4:27 AM Sunset 11:40 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM Moonset 9:14 PM |
PKZ801 Etolin Strait To Dall Point Out To 15 Nm- 355 Am Akdt Wed Jul 3 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through early Thursday morning - .
Today - S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tonight - S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog, rain.
Thu - SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Fog, rain.
Thu night - SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri - SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri night - SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Sat - SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sun - SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
PKZ800
No data
No data
FXAK69 PAFG 031150 AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 350 AM AKDT Wed Jul 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
A major pattern shift is inbound as several rounds of rain, cooler temperatures and strong winds move across the Northern Alaska through the end of the week. There won't be many places that will escape the wind or rain and the rain should be fairly heavy, especially on Thursday. Otherwise, expect temperatures 5-10+ degrees below normal as it will be a cool, wet and windy week for most locations.
DISCUSSION
Upper Levels and Analysis...
At 500 mb, the models initialized 10 meters too weak with the Interior ridging on the 00z radiosondes across the state, which isn't too much of a concern. Otherwise, we have a 535 decameter low in the Chukchi Sea northwest of Utqiagvik, a 554 decameter low in the Gulf of Alaska wrapped by ridging to the east and a 592 decameter high in the North Pacific. All of this combined is providing predominantly zonal flow across the Interior. The main driver of the weather is the high in the Pacific which allows for several vorticity maxima's and upper level lows to move across the state providing more more active weather aloft than what we have seen lately.
Surface Analysis...
Similar to aloft, we have a 1034 mb high in the North Pacific, a 1022 mb low in the Gulf just south of Kodiak and a 1034 mb high east of there, about 400 nautical miles SSW of Juneau. In the arctic, there is a 993 mb low about 350 nautical miles northwest of Utqiagvik. This low is providing wetting rainfall (>0.10") for much of the West Coast and Western Interior. As of 2AM AKDT, Kiana has had the most rainfall so far, over 2.25" while most other locations outside of NW Alaska are sitting around 0.25-0.50" of rain. And more rainfall is expected through the rest of the week.
Central and Eastern Interior...
Much cooler, windier and wetter weather will be arriving today as our highs largely don't make it out of the 60s in most spots.
This is also the first day in quite a while where we don't have a chance for a thunderstorm in the Interior. However, a front dropping in from the northwest will be providing rain and wind beginning in the Western- Central Interior later this morning and around Fairbanks this afternoon then proceeding southeast through the evening. The higher terrain in the Interior will receive the most rain while the valley locations are looking at around 0.15" or less, especially the Yukon Flats where only a few hundredths may be accumulated. Wind will be something that shouldn't be downplayed today either. We'll have widespread wind gusts upwards of 45 mph from the Fox Hills northward, while Fairbanks may also gust as high as 35-40 mph. This could result in localized power outages and some downed trees or limbs. Otherwise, another round of rain will be arriving on Thursday, July 4th and this could come with more moderate to heavy rain. Currently, expect an additional 0.25-0.50" across the Interior with some localized spots picking up 0.75". Rain and breezy conditions continue through the day on Friday before both the rain and wind comes to a halt Saturday morning. Additional chances for rain continue this weekend into next week.
West Coast and Western Interior...
Winds along the Coast will be around 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph at times through Saturday. Kotzebue broke a daily record for precipitation yesterday with 0.93" of rain and while we don't expect more records to be broken, several rounds of rain, heavy at times are expected for the entire area through the end of the week. The heaviest of which will be along the southern Seward Pen.
and Nulato hills where up to 1.00" is possible. Elsewhere in the Western Interior, expect around 0.50" from Galena to Ruby north and 0.25" or less south of there. Then on Thursday the 4th, expect another round of rain for the entire area as it will be a soaker. Widespread amounts of 0.25-0.50" or more are likely to occur. The rain will continue through Friday morning then gradually exit before another front arrives on Saturday.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
Utqiagvik broke the daily record for precipitation yesterday with 0.41" of rain and while we don't anticipate more records to be broken, there will be several other rounds of rain moving through.
Currently, heavy rain in the Western Brooks Range will be ending but not before some spots received upwards of 2-4 inches.
Otherwise, a front moves through the NW Arctic Coast by midday and across the Arctic Coast and from Umiat north this afternoon with another 0.10-0.25" of rain. The heaviest rain, up to 0.50" is expected in the Central and Western Brooks Range. Another round of rain arrives tomorrow and will be a bit more widespread with similar amounts expected. The rainy trend continues into Friday and Saturday with the potential for heavy rain (0.50-1.00") for many spots in the North Slope.
Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
A rainy and cooler trend continues in the extended with several rounds of rain anticipated across the state. A strong 595 decameter high in the central NPAC will persist through the weekend then gradually shift west. Troughing over the western half of the state will also persist and then a low in the Gulf will get caught up in the main flow making for broad troughing over much of the state by the middle of next week. Looking towards the end of the week, ensembles do diverge a bit, as expected, and we could be looking towards a more typical pattern with troughing over the west and southerly flow over the east.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Strong southwest winds with gale force gusts will bring elevated water levels of 2 to 3 feet above the normal high tideline from Norton Sound to the Chukchi coast beginning Tue and lasting into late week.
FIRE WEATHER
Strong southwest winds are expected across most of the mainland with sustained winds around 15-25 mph and gusts to 45 mph from the White Mountains north. From Fairbanks south and east, wind gusts will be a tad weaker, but gusts 30-35 mph are still possible.
Temperatures will be cooler with most highs in the 50s/60s and min RHs will also be high, around 40-50+% across the state. With this will come several rounds of wetting rains for much of the state.
The first of which, already occurred in the Western Brooks Range and West Coast today.
Tonight into tomorrow, a front from the NW will provide widespread wetting rain as it moves southeast. The only areas that may not get wetting rains will be around McGrath and the Yukon Flats, but there will still be wind and cool temps.
Otherwise, widespread, heavier rain arrives for most locations on Thursday the 4th, and this continues into Friday. Several locations in the Interior will be around 0.50-0.75" of rain with the exception of SE AK and the N. Yukon Flats where around 0.10" of rain is expected.
HYDROLOGY
Heavy rain in the Western Brooks Range occurred yesterday with upwards of 4" of rain in some spots. The Kiana AWOS received about 2.5" of rain in 24 hours. This may lead to rises in the Kobuk, Noatak and Wulik Rivers as well as other smaller rivers and streams. Additional rain is expected each day through this weekend with another 0.50-1.50" expected through Saturday night.
In the Interior, rain is going to be moving through each day through the weekend as well with rainfall amounts upwards of 0.50-2.00" across most of the Interior. The highest amounts should be expected in the higher terrain. This may also lead to rises in some rivers and streams.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ832>834-838-840>844.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801>805-811-850-852-853.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807-856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808-809-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-814.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-857-858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-851-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 350 AM AKDT Wed Jul 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
A major pattern shift is inbound as several rounds of rain, cooler temperatures and strong winds move across the Northern Alaska through the end of the week. There won't be many places that will escape the wind or rain and the rain should be fairly heavy, especially on Thursday. Otherwise, expect temperatures 5-10+ degrees below normal as it will be a cool, wet and windy week for most locations.
DISCUSSION
Upper Levels and Analysis...
At 500 mb, the models initialized 10 meters too weak with the Interior ridging on the 00z radiosondes across the state, which isn't too much of a concern. Otherwise, we have a 535 decameter low in the Chukchi Sea northwest of Utqiagvik, a 554 decameter low in the Gulf of Alaska wrapped by ridging to the east and a 592 decameter high in the North Pacific. All of this combined is providing predominantly zonal flow across the Interior. The main driver of the weather is the high in the Pacific which allows for several vorticity maxima's and upper level lows to move across the state providing more more active weather aloft than what we have seen lately.
Surface Analysis...
Similar to aloft, we have a 1034 mb high in the North Pacific, a 1022 mb low in the Gulf just south of Kodiak and a 1034 mb high east of there, about 400 nautical miles SSW of Juneau. In the arctic, there is a 993 mb low about 350 nautical miles northwest of Utqiagvik. This low is providing wetting rainfall (>0.10") for much of the West Coast and Western Interior. As of 2AM AKDT, Kiana has had the most rainfall so far, over 2.25" while most other locations outside of NW Alaska are sitting around 0.25-0.50" of rain. And more rainfall is expected through the rest of the week.
Central and Eastern Interior...
Much cooler, windier and wetter weather will be arriving today as our highs largely don't make it out of the 60s in most spots.
This is also the first day in quite a while where we don't have a chance for a thunderstorm in the Interior. However, a front dropping in from the northwest will be providing rain and wind beginning in the Western- Central Interior later this morning and around Fairbanks this afternoon then proceeding southeast through the evening. The higher terrain in the Interior will receive the most rain while the valley locations are looking at around 0.15" or less, especially the Yukon Flats where only a few hundredths may be accumulated. Wind will be something that shouldn't be downplayed today either. We'll have widespread wind gusts upwards of 45 mph from the Fox Hills northward, while Fairbanks may also gust as high as 35-40 mph. This could result in localized power outages and some downed trees or limbs. Otherwise, another round of rain will be arriving on Thursday, July 4th and this could come with more moderate to heavy rain. Currently, expect an additional 0.25-0.50" across the Interior with some localized spots picking up 0.75". Rain and breezy conditions continue through the day on Friday before both the rain and wind comes to a halt Saturday morning. Additional chances for rain continue this weekend into next week.
West Coast and Western Interior...
Winds along the Coast will be around 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph at times through Saturday. Kotzebue broke a daily record for precipitation yesterday with 0.93" of rain and while we don't expect more records to be broken, several rounds of rain, heavy at times are expected for the entire area through the end of the week. The heaviest of which will be along the southern Seward Pen.
and Nulato hills where up to 1.00" is possible. Elsewhere in the Western Interior, expect around 0.50" from Galena to Ruby north and 0.25" or less south of there. Then on Thursday the 4th, expect another round of rain for the entire area as it will be a soaker. Widespread amounts of 0.25-0.50" or more are likely to occur. The rain will continue through Friday morning then gradually exit before another front arrives on Saturday.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
Utqiagvik broke the daily record for precipitation yesterday with 0.41" of rain and while we don't anticipate more records to be broken, there will be several other rounds of rain moving through.
Currently, heavy rain in the Western Brooks Range will be ending but not before some spots received upwards of 2-4 inches.
Otherwise, a front moves through the NW Arctic Coast by midday and across the Arctic Coast and from Umiat north this afternoon with another 0.10-0.25" of rain. The heaviest rain, up to 0.50" is expected in the Central and Western Brooks Range. Another round of rain arrives tomorrow and will be a bit more widespread with similar amounts expected. The rainy trend continues into Friday and Saturday with the potential for heavy rain (0.50-1.00") for many spots in the North Slope.
Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
A rainy and cooler trend continues in the extended with several rounds of rain anticipated across the state. A strong 595 decameter high in the central NPAC will persist through the weekend then gradually shift west. Troughing over the western half of the state will also persist and then a low in the Gulf will get caught up in the main flow making for broad troughing over much of the state by the middle of next week. Looking towards the end of the week, ensembles do diverge a bit, as expected, and we could be looking towards a more typical pattern with troughing over the west and southerly flow over the east.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Strong southwest winds with gale force gusts will bring elevated water levels of 2 to 3 feet above the normal high tideline from Norton Sound to the Chukchi coast beginning Tue and lasting into late week.
FIRE WEATHER
Strong southwest winds are expected across most of the mainland with sustained winds around 15-25 mph and gusts to 45 mph from the White Mountains north. From Fairbanks south and east, wind gusts will be a tad weaker, but gusts 30-35 mph are still possible.
Temperatures will be cooler with most highs in the 50s/60s and min RHs will also be high, around 40-50+% across the state. With this will come several rounds of wetting rains for much of the state.
The first of which, already occurred in the Western Brooks Range and West Coast today.
Tonight into tomorrow, a front from the NW will provide widespread wetting rain as it moves southeast. The only areas that may not get wetting rains will be around McGrath and the Yukon Flats, but there will still be wind and cool temps.
Otherwise, widespread, heavier rain arrives for most locations on Thursday the 4th, and this continues into Friday. Several locations in the Interior will be around 0.50-0.75" of rain with the exception of SE AK and the N. Yukon Flats where around 0.10" of rain is expected.
HYDROLOGY
Heavy rain in the Western Brooks Range occurred yesterday with upwards of 4" of rain in some spots. The Kiana AWOS received about 2.5" of rain in 24 hours. This may lead to rises in the Kobuk, Noatak and Wulik Rivers as well as other smaller rivers and streams. Additional rain is expected each day through this weekend with another 0.50-1.50" expected through Saturday night.
In the Interior, rain is going to be moving through each day through the weekend as well with rainfall amounts upwards of 0.50-2.00" across most of the Interior. The highest amounts should be expected in the higher terrain. This may also lead to rises in some rivers and streams.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ832>834-838-840>844.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801>805-811-850-852-853.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807-856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808-809-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-814.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-857-858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-851-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for K5NV
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for K5NV
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for K5NV
Wind History graph: 5NV
(wind in knots)Kokechik Bay
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:41 AM AKDT 6.95 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:47 AM AKDT Sunset
Wed -- 02:26 AM AKDT Moonrise
Wed -- 05:29 AM AKDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:31 AM AKDT 2.70 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:51 AM AKDT 5.62 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:32 PM AKDT -1.57 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:41 AM AKDT 6.95 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:47 AM AKDT Sunset
Wed -- 02:26 AM AKDT Moonrise
Wed -- 05:29 AM AKDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:31 AM AKDT 2.70 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:51 AM AKDT 5.62 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:32 PM AKDT -1.57 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Kokechik Bay, Cape Romanzof, Alaska, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 6.8 |
| 1 am |
| 6.9 |
| 2 am |
| 6.5 |
| 3 am |
| 5.6 |
| 4 am |
| 4.5 |
| 5 am |
| 3.4 |
| 6 am |
| 2.8 |
| 7 am |
| 2.8 |
| 8 am |
| 3.3 |
| 9 am |
| 4.1 |
| 10 am |
| 4.9 |
| 11 am |
| 5.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 5.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 5.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 4.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 1 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| -1.4 |
| 7 pm |
| -1.5 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 1 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 4.7 |
Bethel/Anchorage,AK
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