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FXUS66 KOTX 180513 AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1013 PM PDT Mon Jun 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue each day through mid week especially up in the mountains. A warming trend is expected through the week, with high temperatures rebounding into the mid 80s to mid 90s on Saturday.

DISCUSSION
Monday night through Tuesday: The center of the upper level low will move to the east this evening, leaving the Inland Northwest under a broad rex block pattern with an upper level ridge over western Canada and broad troughing over the western US. A tight cross-Cascade pressure gradient will support breezy to gusty winds through the Cascade valleys and into the western Columbia Basin through this evening with wind gusts up to 40 MPH around the Wenatchee area and the Waterville Plateau. Showers will decrease in coverage after sunset and shift over the Idaho Panhandle, where they will linger through the night.

There were a handful of spots across northeast Washington and north Idaho and even into Spokane County (Cheney, Deer Park) where the low temperatures Monday were poorly handled by the NBM with observed temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s. Even after manually lowering the lows by a couple degrees across northeast Washington and north Idaho, lows do look to trend a bit warmer tonight in response to continued cloud cover with lows generally in the upper 30s to low 40s. Places such as Colville, Republic, Cusick have the best chances to see low temperatures below 36 degrees with Colville having a 54% chance, Cusick 24% chance, and Republic a 13% chance.

Despite remaining under an unstable, northwest flow aloft through Tuesday, the coverage for afternoon showers will shrink to primarily north-central Washington to north Idaho where moist, upslope flow aids in development. Showers will be capable of producing brief downpours, lightning, and small hail. Temperatures will begin to gradually warm on Tuesday with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. /vmt

Wednesday through Monday: A weak trough will linger over the Inland Northwest for Wednesday and Thursday. Chances for showers (POPs less than 50%) will linger across the northern mountains Wednesday, becoming less likely on Thursday. Even with the trough and shower chances, temps mid-week will still be increasing several degrees above our cool early week readings. The even more dramatic warm-up (combined with dry conditions) will occur from Thursday into the weekend, with high temps expected to peak on Saturday at 10+ degrees above normal for many locations. Extended range models indicate a cold front passing through early next week. Temps will again turn cooler, especially for Monday. Precip chances will also return, but the best chances will be mainly confined to the mountains. The frontal-associated winds with the still-warm Sunday temps may warrant watching over the next few days regarding any elevated fire weather concerns. /KD

AVIATION
06Z TAFS: Lingering showers will continue into the late evening hours with the potential to impact KPUW/KLWS through 08Z. Models continue to suggest the development of marginal VFR ceilings to develop across far northeast Washington and north Idaho between 12 to 20Z on Tuesday with low clouds potentially developing across the Spokane/Coeur d'Alene corridor. A repeat of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms is expected on Tuesday with a 30% chance for thunderstorms developing across KGEG-KSFF-KCOE, and around a 20% chance in the vicinity of KPUW and KLWS in the afternoon and early evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is a 40-60% chance and moderate confidence for ceilings between 1000-3000 feet at Coeur d'Alene, Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry from 12Z to 19Z.
There is a 20% chance that marginal VFR ceilings develop at the Pullman/Moscow Airport early Tuesday morning. /SVH

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Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/ www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Spokane 43 68 44 76 49 82 / 40 50 10 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 43 64 43 73 47 81 / 60 60 20 0 0 0 Pullman 41 65 41 73 46 80 / 60 20 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 48 73 49 82 53 88 / 50 20 0 0 0 0 Colville 36 66 38 73 41 81 / 70 80 40 20 0 0 Sandpoint 42 59 40 69 45 78 / 70 90 60 20 0 0 Kellogg 45 59 45 71 49 78 / 70 70 10 10 0 0 Moses Lake 44 76 46 81 53 88 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 49 75 52 79 55 85 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Omak 44 74 47 79 50 86 / 40 30 20 20 0 0

OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...None.
WA...None.

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