Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Siasconset, MA
June 2, 2024 7:46 PM EDT (23:46 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:11 AM Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 2:33 AM Moonset 3:52 PM |
ANZ915 Between 1000fm And 38.5 N West Of 69 W- 421 Pm Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Tonight - W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W to sw 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
Mon - W winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming W to nw 5 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. Chance of showers. Slight chance of tstms.
Mon night - N to ne winds less than 10 kt, becoming E to ne. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Chance of showers and tstms with vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue - E to ne winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night - E to se winds less than 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed - S to se winds less than 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night - S winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
Thu - S to sw winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
Thu night - SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
Fri - SW winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
Fri night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W to sw 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
ANZ900 Georges Bank Between 68w And The Hague Line- 421 Pm Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Tonight - W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon - W to nw winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming N to ne. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon night - NE winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming N to ne 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Areas of fog with vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night - N to nw winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed - W to nw winds less than 10 kt, becoming W to sw. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night - S to sw winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night - S to se winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
Fri - S to sw winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Fri night - S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S to sw 5 to 10 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
FXUS61 KBOX 022323 AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 723 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
Mainly dry conditions tonight and tomorrow with a spot shower and rumble of thunder possible Monday afternoon. Back door cold front will cool down daytime highs tomorrow afternoon. Tranquil and dry weather prevails into midweek. Our weather pattern then turns more unsettled and a bit more humid too for Thursday and Friday, with several opportunities for showers and embedded thunderstorms. Localized downpours are possible. Still a chance for pop-up showers and t-storms on Saturday, although with less coverage.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
710 PM Update:
Pretty nice early evening underway across Southern New England so far, similar to last night. For the vast majority of Southern New England, expecting quiet weather to continue for the balance of the evening.
That said, regional radar over the Finger Lakes region and southern Adirondacks in central NY shows an cluster of heavier showers associated with low-level warm advection surge; even in NY, model guidance has insisted this activity would have fizzled out by now, but that has yet to occur. Airmass remains quite dry and while we should see at least a general west to east increase in mid to high clouds overnight, the drier low level air should keep this activity at bay and didn't make any adjustments to PoPs as yet. But given observed trends and that the 18z guidance is really handling this ongoing shower activity pretty poorly, we may need to introduce isolated showers in forthcoming updates for western MA and adjacent portions of northern CT. Still, any showers that would develop would be on the light side.
With rising dewpoints over the still-cooler waters, we could see patchy fog develop over the southern waters later in the overnight/pre- dawn period, and it's possible this could affect the immediate shoreline if it develops at all.
Previous discussion:
Very subtle and weak shortwave drops south across the region tonight which could bring an isolated spot shower in western MA and CT.
However, weak forcing and dry air below 10kft will likely evaporate most rain before it can reach the ground resulting in just virga and perhaps a sprinkle. Increasing mid and high level cloud cover tonight along with dewpoints in the 50s will keep overnight lows warmer then last night only dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Upper level closed low and cold pool to the east will send a back door cold front into the region Monday. High temperatures in eastern MA will peak early in the day in the mid to upper 70s, before abruptly dropping down to the upper 60s to low 70s as the back door cold front arrives. Further west in the CT river valley, the back door cold front will struggle to reach that far west, and high temps should be able to reach the low to mid 80s. Mainly dry conditions again monday as a weak ridge and area of high pressure builds to the west. There is a low chance for an isolated shower and rumble of thunder in the late afternoon across western MA and CT as roughly 500 J/kg of CAPE builds. Any convection that does fire will be fighting rising heights and very meager mid level lapse rates around 5 C/km. With little to no shear, any convection that forms would be an isolated single cell. There could be sub-severe wind gusts with any showers/thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon with steep low level lapse rates around 10 C/km and soundings showing an inverted V shape in the boundary layer.
Any showers/thunderstorms that form Monday afternoon/evening will quickly dissipate after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.
Mainly dry conditions overnight Monday with low clouds and fog possibly rolling in off the waters due to prolonged onshore flow.
Overnight lows drop into the low to mid 50s.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Highlights:
* Generally dry Tue and Wed with mild temps inland, cooler coasts.
* Turning more unsettled and muggy into Thurs and Fri with several opportunities for showers/embedded t-storms. Localized downpours possible. Temps seasonable to slightly cooler than normal with clouds/rain around.
* More pop-up showers/storms Sat, although with a bit less coverage.
Details:
Tuesday:
Tranquil conditions expected for Tue with sfc high pressure in control and midlevel heights rising. With guidance coming into better consensus on unsettled weather conditions moving into the latter portion of the week, Tue is likely to be the pick of the workweek. While coastal areas expected to be kept cooler due to seabreezes (highs mid 60s/around 70), full sun and dry weather inland should boost highs into the 70s to lower/mid 80s. A bit more of an increase in cloud cover over western CT/MA but still dry with lows in the mid to upper 50s.
Wednesday:
Should be able to eke out another dry day for eastern MA and RI on Wed as surface high pressure shifts offshore. Some hints in latest guidance of isolated diurnal convection as 500 mb heights start to fall with modest instability, although the better risk looks to reside to our north and west. Left a slight chance PoP mention during the afternoon for the CT Valley and the Berkshires, although drier weather to prevail most of the time. Risk for showers then increases later Wed evening/early Thurs AM as we start to feel the effects of a seasonably-strong upper level low over the Gt Lakes region. Thus indicated steadily increasing PoP from west to east into the solid Chance range (30-50%) by Thurs AM. Should see highs in the 70s to low 80s, and lows in the lower 60s with humidity levels rising.
Thursday into Friday:
Models are coming into better agreement that this period looks quite unsettled with widespread showers and embedded t-storms. Upper level low combined with rising humidity levels and a modest degree of instability could favor local downpours, though the lack of stronger instability would be a deterrent to stronger storms. Thurs looks to be the wettest period, with NBM 4.2 probs of rain over a half inch are in the moderate range (30-50%), and are lower to moderate (15- 25%) for 24 hrs rains over 1 inch. Brought PoPs up into the Likely range for showers and t-storms on Thurs. Most models show we get into a dryslot of sorts for Thurs evening with decreasing PoP to around 30-40%, then more pop-up showers/storms on Fri as a secondary shortwave disturbance moves through. Still unclear if these downpours may cause any hydro issues, though that risk is mitigated to an extent by the recent spell of dry weather we've had.
With a lot of cloud cover around along with periods of rain and thunderstorms, expect temps to cool off into the 70s for both Thurs and Fri, though will feel a little more muggy with dewpoints in the mid 60s.
Saturday:
Still some risk for diurnal showers/storms on Sat, although the upper low begins to deamplify and lifts toward the northeast into Canada.
AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z TAF Update:
Tonight: High confidence.
Mainly VFR, though did include a TEMPO mention of MVFR BR over the Cape airports toward early Mon AM due to possible marine fog. Winds light southerly to start, though will begin a gradual clockwise turn to N for most, with NE winds developing along the immediate eastern MA coast towards daybreak.
Monday... High confidence.
VFR and dry. Back door cold front will turn winds ENE in the morning eventually turning ESE in the afternoon. Low chance for an isolated afternoon shower/thunderstorm across western MA and CT.
Monday Night... Moderate confidence
Continued onshore flow could begin to bring in MVFR/IFR CIGS for coastal terminals. Winds remain ENE/ESE
KBOS TAF... High confidence.
VFR. Winds turn slowly to the north overnight and become ENE around mid-morning Mon (~14-16z) as a back door cold front passes through. Winds slowly trend ESE tomorrow afternoon. Could see lower CIGS move in late Monday as near surface moisture increase due to onshore flow.
KBDL TAF... High confidence.
VFR. Light SSW winds, though will trend ENE/E Mon. Low chance for an isolated shower or thundershower Mon afternoon.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. SHRA likely, isolated TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight... High confidence.
Dry conditions with WSW winds turning WNW towards day break at 5-10 knots. Seas 1-2 feet.
Monday... High confidence.
Continued dry conditions. Back door cold front will shift the wind direction to the ENE late tomorrow morning into the early afternoon at 10-15 knots. Seas 1-3 feet.
Monday night...Moderate confidence
Easterly flow will likely bring low clouds and fog to the waters overnight. Winds 5-10 knots and seas 1-2 feet.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Tuesday through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Rain showers likely, isolated thunderstorms.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely, isolated thunderstorms.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 723 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
Mainly dry conditions tonight and tomorrow with a spot shower and rumble of thunder possible Monday afternoon. Back door cold front will cool down daytime highs tomorrow afternoon. Tranquil and dry weather prevails into midweek. Our weather pattern then turns more unsettled and a bit more humid too for Thursday and Friday, with several opportunities for showers and embedded thunderstorms. Localized downpours are possible. Still a chance for pop-up showers and t-storms on Saturday, although with less coverage.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
710 PM Update:
Pretty nice early evening underway across Southern New England so far, similar to last night. For the vast majority of Southern New England, expecting quiet weather to continue for the balance of the evening.
That said, regional radar over the Finger Lakes region and southern Adirondacks in central NY shows an cluster of heavier showers associated with low-level warm advection surge; even in NY, model guidance has insisted this activity would have fizzled out by now, but that has yet to occur. Airmass remains quite dry and while we should see at least a general west to east increase in mid to high clouds overnight, the drier low level air should keep this activity at bay and didn't make any adjustments to PoPs as yet. But given observed trends and that the 18z guidance is really handling this ongoing shower activity pretty poorly, we may need to introduce isolated showers in forthcoming updates for western MA and adjacent portions of northern CT. Still, any showers that would develop would be on the light side.
With rising dewpoints over the still-cooler waters, we could see patchy fog develop over the southern waters later in the overnight/pre- dawn period, and it's possible this could affect the immediate shoreline if it develops at all.
Previous discussion:
Very subtle and weak shortwave drops south across the region tonight which could bring an isolated spot shower in western MA and CT.
However, weak forcing and dry air below 10kft will likely evaporate most rain before it can reach the ground resulting in just virga and perhaps a sprinkle. Increasing mid and high level cloud cover tonight along with dewpoints in the 50s will keep overnight lows warmer then last night only dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Upper level closed low and cold pool to the east will send a back door cold front into the region Monday. High temperatures in eastern MA will peak early in the day in the mid to upper 70s, before abruptly dropping down to the upper 60s to low 70s as the back door cold front arrives. Further west in the CT river valley, the back door cold front will struggle to reach that far west, and high temps should be able to reach the low to mid 80s. Mainly dry conditions again monday as a weak ridge and area of high pressure builds to the west. There is a low chance for an isolated shower and rumble of thunder in the late afternoon across western MA and CT as roughly 500 J/kg of CAPE builds. Any convection that does fire will be fighting rising heights and very meager mid level lapse rates around 5 C/km. With little to no shear, any convection that forms would be an isolated single cell. There could be sub-severe wind gusts with any showers/thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon with steep low level lapse rates around 10 C/km and soundings showing an inverted V shape in the boundary layer.
Any showers/thunderstorms that form Monday afternoon/evening will quickly dissipate after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.
Mainly dry conditions overnight Monday with low clouds and fog possibly rolling in off the waters due to prolonged onshore flow.
Overnight lows drop into the low to mid 50s.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Highlights:
* Generally dry Tue and Wed with mild temps inland, cooler coasts.
* Turning more unsettled and muggy into Thurs and Fri with several opportunities for showers/embedded t-storms. Localized downpours possible. Temps seasonable to slightly cooler than normal with clouds/rain around.
* More pop-up showers/storms Sat, although with a bit less coverage.
Details:
Tuesday:
Tranquil conditions expected for Tue with sfc high pressure in control and midlevel heights rising. With guidance coming into better consensus on unsettled weather conditions moving into the latter portion of the week, Tue is likely to be the pick of the workweek. While coastal areas expected to be kept cooler due to seabreezes (highs mid 60s/around 70), full sun and dry weather inland should boost highs into the 70s to lower/mid 80s. A bit more of an increase in cloud cover over western CT/MA but still dry with lows in the mid to upper 50s.
Wednesday:
Should be able to eke out another dry day for eastern MA and RI on Wed as surface high pressure shifts offshore. Some hints in latest guidance of isolated diurnal convection as 500 mb heights start to fall with modest instability, although the better risk looks to reside to our north and west. Left a slight chance PoP mention during the afternoon for the CT Valley and the Berkshires, although drier weather to prevail most of the time. Risk for showers then increases later Wed evening/early Thurs AM as we start to feel the effects of a seasonably-strong upper level low over the Gt Lakes region. Thus indicated steadily increasing PoP from west to east into the solid Chance range (30-50%) by Thurs AM. Should see highs in the 70s to low 80s, and lows in the lower 60s with humidity levels rising.
Thursday into Friday:
Models are coming into better agreement that this period looks quite unsettled with widespread showers and embedded t-storms. Upper level low combined with rising humidity levels and a modest degree of instability could favor local downpours, though the lack of stronger instability would be a deterrent to stronger storms. Thurs looks to be the wettest period, with NBM 4.2 probs of rain over a half inch are in the moderate range (30-50%), and are lower to moderate (15- 25%) for 24 hrs rains over 1 inch. Brought PoPs up into the Likely range for showers and t-storms on Thurs. Most models show we get into a dryslot of sorts for Thurs evening with decreasing PoP to around 30-40%, then more pop-up showers/storms on Fri as a secondary shortwave disturbance moves through. Still unclear if these downpours may cause any hydro issues, though that risk is mitigated to an extent by the recent spell of dry weather we've had.
With a lot of cloud cover around along with periods of rain and thunderstorms, expect temps to cool off into the 70s for both Thurs and Fri, though will feel a little more muggy with dewpoints in the mid 60s.
Saturday:
Still some risk for diurnal showers/storms on Sat, although the upper low begins to deamplify and lifts toward the northeast into Canada.
AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z TAF Update:
Tonight: High confidence.
Mainly VFR, though did include a TEMPO mention of MVFR BR over the Cape airports toward early Mon AM due to possible marine fog. Winds light southerly to start, though will begin a gradual clockwise turn to N for most, with NE winds developing along the immediate eastern MA coast towards daybreak.
Monday... High confidence.
VFR and dry. Back door cold front will turn winds ENE in the morning eventually turning ESE in the afternoon. Low chance for an isolated afternoon shower/thunderstorm across western MA and CT.
Monday Night... Moderate confidence
Continued onshore flow could begin to bring in MVFR/IFR CIGS for coastal terminals. Winds remain ENE/ESE
KBOS TAF... High confidence.
VFR. Winds turn slowly to the north overnight and become ENE around mid-morning Mon (~14-16z) as a back door cold front passes through. Winds slowly trend ESE tomorrow afternoon. Could see lower CIGS move in late Monday as near surface moisture increase due to onshore flow.
KBDL TAF... High confidence.
VFR. Light SSW winds, though will trend ENE/E Mon. Low chance for an isolated shower or thundershower Mon afternoon.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. SHRA likely, isolated TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight... High confidence.
Dry conditions with WSW winds turning WNW towards day break at 5-10 knots. Seas 1-2 feet.
Monday... High confidence.
Continued dry conditions. Back door cold front will shift the wind direction to the ENE late tomorrow morning into the early afternoon at 10-15 knots. Seas 1-3 feet.
Monday night...Moderate confidence
Easterly flow will likely bring low clouds and fog to the waters overnight. Winds 5-10 knots and seas 1-2 feet.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Tuesday through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Rain showers likely, isolated thunderstorms.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely, isolated thunderstorms.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
Upton, NY,
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