Sunrise 5:40 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 1:35 AM   Moonset 2:07 PM

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ANZ532 Chesapeake Bay From Sandy Point To North Beach- 134 Pm Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
This afternoon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves flat. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon night - E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 210 Pm Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
Synopsis - High pressure will slide east-southeast and offshore the carolina coast this afternoon, then seaward over the western atlantic. A trailing ridge axis will extend westward across north florida into early next week. Fresh east winds will produce poor to hazardous conditions today, then conditions will gradually improve Sunday through Tuesday.
Gulf stream hazards - East winds 20 knots with seas 5 to 7 feet south of sebastian inlet.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Thursday, may 30th.
37 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 27 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 21 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 13 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 8 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS61 KLWX 011856 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 256 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will slide offshore tonight into early Sunday morning. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Sunday into Monday as a quick moving low pressure system passes through. Dry conditions briefly return with high pressure Tuesday before shower and thunderstorm chances increase with a series of fronts mid to late next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Thickening cirrus tonight with mid-level clouds moving in on Sunday. Warmer tonight with lows a little above climo in the low 60s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

A weakening shortwave-trough will approach the area Sunday afternoon triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly west of Route 15. Activity spreads east toward the metros Sunday evening. Severe t-storms are not expected due to weak shear and weak lapse rates. Shower activity should wane quickly after midnight Sunday night.

Monday could still see isolated showers and/or t-storms due to lingering moisture and sfc trof nearby. Drying out Monday night into Tue as mid-level ridging builds in. Temps will remain close to normal through the first half of next week.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Brief high pressure and weak upper level ridging will settle back over the region Tuesday. Meanwhile, the frontal boundary associated with the area of low pressure from earlier in the week will stall across southwest and eastern VA. The front will eventually become parallel with fairly zonal upper level flow aloft yielding additional shower and thunderstorm chances mainly in areas west of the Blue Ridge and south of the I-64 corridor Tuesday afternoon and evening. The bulk of Tuesday should remain dry given the weakened influence of high pressure overhead. Highs Tuesday will remain in the upper 70s and low to mid 80s. Lows Tuesday night will fall back into the upper 50s and low to mid 60s as low level moisture returns.

06Z and 12z synoptic and ensemble guidance continue to show varying solutions in regards to the change in weather pattern heading into mid to late next week. A potent upper level trough will gradually dive south into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region Wednesday with a strong cold front cutting east through the Ohio River Valley and a warm front lifting north into the Mid-Atlantic region. The 06z GFS is a bit drier while the 00z ECMWF is wetter. Both solutions seem to hold the warm front off until late Wednesday with the cold front set to cross Thursday into Friday. This will yield an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Any organized convection looks to hold off until Thursday and Friday. CSU Learning probabilities and CIPS analogues highlight this period as the best opportunity for low end severe weather risks. This is something we'll continue to monitor in the coming days ahead.

Beyond this point, models diverge a bit more in regards to Friday and the weekend. This is due in part to model solutions trying to resolve if the upper level trough associated with the incumbent cold front cuts off as it moves into the Great Lakes region. This could lead to lingering spotty shower and thunderstorm activity Friday into the start of the weekend. Temperatures will remain at or above average through the extended period.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Sunday morning.
Winds will remain light and variable out of the south as high pressure gradually pushes offshore. Skies will remain mostly sunny with high cirrus passing through. More widespread mid and high level cloud cover returns late tonight into Sunday morning.

VFR conditions are expected Sunday with high pressure just offshore.
A slight chance for a few thunderstorms is possible mainly at terminals along and west of a line from KMRB down to KCHO. Some restrictions are possible in and around any thunderstorm activity that may form.

Prevailing VFR conditions on Monday and Tuesday as weak upper level ridging builds back over the region. Winds will turn back to the north Monday and southeast late Tuesday into Wednesday. Any thunderstorm activity will be fairly sparse and confined to terminals west of the Blue Ridge.

Higher chances for more widespread restrictions from shower and thunderstorm activity are possible during the afternoon and evening hours Wednesday through Friday as multiple pieces of shortwave energy and a series of fronts push through.

MARINE

SCA level winds return to the southern waters of the bay and lower tidal Potomac late this evening into Sunday morning.
Winds will fall back below SCA levels Sunday afternoon. Spotty showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out due to the bay breeze Sunday afternoon/evening. Cannot completely rule out the need for a Special Marine Warning for any strong storms that cross the waters during the period.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms moving over the waters during the afternoon and evening hours could bring stronger gusts especially on Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. Special Marine Warnings cannot be ruled out during this period.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ534-543.

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Thomas Point Shoal Light
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Sat -- 01:09 AM EDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:13 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:00 PM EDT     1.02 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:05 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Thomas Point Shoal Light, Maryland, Tide feet

Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:15 AM EDT     0.89 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:43 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:43 AM EDT     -0.69 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:57 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:34 PM EDT     0.49 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:10 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:29 PM EDT     -0.75 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:29 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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