NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
The afternoon has come and gone with virtually no precip due to a stout mid-level cap (as seen on the 00Z sounding). A few showers/storms could move into the lower Chesapeake Bay waters late this evening. Otherwise, dry conditions expected overnight.
Given how low the dew points are, the overnight lows were dropped a few degrees, especially along/west US-15 where better radiational cooling should drop lows to the 60s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The south and east push of this frontal zone gradually halts with the system stalling in the vicinity into next week. Given the nature of the boundary and time of year, this frontal zone will largely be a dew point gradient. Although a brief reprieve from the humidity is expected on Sunday, expect the dew points to ramp back up leading to humid conditions heading into Monday.
The area is largely dry on Sunday before turning wetter on Monday as weak perturbations aloft interact with this stalled system. The forecast calls for a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Monday afternoon and evening, possibly continuing after dark. Forecast highs generally sit in the low 90s each day, locally pushing to around 95 degrees. While heat index values stay below the century mark on Sunday, they should return to around 100 degrees by Monday. How warm the area gets early next week will depend on how much cloud cover interferes with the main period of diurnal heating.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
On Tuesday, a large trough is expected over the central CONUS, with ridging along both coasts. As the upper trough advances east, it's also expected to absorb remnants of Beryl. Meanwhile, a surface low located over the Great Lakes will be draping a cold front south through the Ohio and Mississippi river valleys. The warm front with this system is currently forecast to lift through the area accompanied by a surface trough. These features will act as a focus for shower and thunderstorm activity on Tuesday.

More widespread rain is expected with the cold front's arrival on Wednesday. Depending on how Beryl evolves, this could also coincide with Beryl's remnant energy passing overhead. The front could linger into Thursday, making the most of Beryl's energy before it departs and continuing the higher PoPs over the area. PoPs on both Wednesday and Thursday are 50-60%. For Friday, a second cold front could swing in from the northwest, but also stall in the area as the trough over the central CONUS weakens and the Bermuda high strengthens.

Overall, the extended looks to continue a pattern of soggy weather with fairly persistent southerly flow. There is some "relief" from highs in the 90s on Thursday, with highs in the 80s, but it likely won't feel very relieving with dewpoints and low temperatures remaining in the low to mid 70s through the duration of the extended. Even if daytime highs/heat indices don't reach headline criteria each day (though they still could) the prolonged period of muggy conditions with poor overnight recovery poses a heat risk.

AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR conditions are likely across the terminals this weekend. Winds shift to north/northwesterly this evening and night as a weak cold front pushes through.

Expect a return southerly flow by Monday as the boundary returns back as a warm front before stalling. Increasing opportunities for showers and thunderstorms could lead to some afternoon/evening restrictions on Monday.

VFR conditions are expected most of the time Tuesday and Wednesday, but afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could bring sub-VFR restrictions to the terminals. Wednesday is currently expected to have the higher coverage of showers. This pattern persists into Thursday as well given the frontal zone nearby.

MARINE
South to southwest winds shift to north overnight as a front sags south through the waters. Northerly winds persist into Monday before shifting to southerly the second half of the day.
This is in response to the stalled front returning northward as a warm front. In addition, a convective threat accompanies this frontal surge which could lead to hazardous marine conditions at times, especially on Monday afternoon/evening.

Southerly flow is expected both Tuesday and Wednesday and could increase to SCA criteria in the afternoon and early evening with southerly channeling.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Generally light southerly to southwesterly flow will result in elevated tide levels through the weekend. Vulnerable shoreline may come close to minor flooding during the early morning high tides.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.