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FXUS61 KALY 231440 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1040 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will cross the region today and bring slightly cooler and less humid conditions along with a few showers and thunderstorms mainly focused across areas south and east of Albany. Sunny, dry and pleasant weather is expected on Friday. A few showers are possible over the weekend with more widespread rainfall expected early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Showers tracking through the mid Hudson Valley through areas along the NY/New England border and a few rumbles of thunder in the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. This rain will exit the region this afternoon. The leading edge of clearing is in central NY and will build east through the afternoon, reaching the mid Hudson Valley by sunset but even a few breaks in the clouds possible east of the Hudson River into western New England by sunset. Area 12Z soundings behind the cold front, in the sunny areas, suggest we will get close to forecasted highs, especially in areas that see some sun later. Just minor adjustments to the timing of the exit of the rain, to temperatures and sky cover, through the afternoon.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Mostly dry weather is expected as slightly cooler and less humid air moves in behind the front with any morning clouds gradually giving way to more sunshine in the afternoon. Any isolated rain chances would likely occur during the first few hours of the morning as the front crosses. Highs will be mainly in the lower 70s to lower 80s.

High pressure builds into the region tonight with mostly clear and dry weather expected. Lows will dip back into the 50s for most areas with some upper 40s across the Adirondacks. There may be enough of a dewpoint depression spread to limit fog potential to just localized areas.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure overhead will bring sunny and pleasant weather on Friday with lower humidity levels. Highs will top out in the lower 70s to lower 80s across most areas which is still about 5 to 10 degrees above average. Dry conditions continue Friday night with lows dipping back into the mid-40s to mid-50s.

The high will begin to depart to the north and east on Saturday as a disturbance approaches from the south and west. We may be positioned between two separate upper-level shortwaves with one tracking to our south and another to our north and west. Still, some lift along and ahead of a passing surface warm front could bring some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly late in the day Saturday into Saturday night. Forcing weakens across the region on Sunday as weak ridging building in.
However, a few isolated showers will remain possible during the day. Highs both days will range from the mid-70s to mid-80s with lows Saturday night in the 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Short wave ridging should keep dry conditions in place through Sunday evening. Will then mention low probs for showers overnight as a lead upper level disturbance approaches from the south/west. On Monday, a large upper level low and deepening surface cyclone will start to affect the region as it pushes eastward across the central Great Lakes. A surface frontal system ahead of the cyclone will move into our region, with showers/thunderstorms becoming likely Mon afternoon into the evening. It is unclear how much instability can develop, depending if our area can get into a warm sector. With model discrepancies in timing/track, it is possible the warm sector may not make it this far north with more of an occluded boundary moving through. Much too early for specific details, but this could result in some potentially stronger storms given sufficient instability and also locally heavy rainfall with PWAT anomalies forecast to increase to +1 to +2 STDEV.

On Tuesday the surface front should be east of the region, although there are some guidance with slower timing. The main core of the upper low is forecast to track into SE Canada, while a broad upper level trough builds in across the Great Lakes and Northeast Tue through Wed. Depending on timing of short waves rotating through the mean trough, additional scattered to numerous showers are expected. Will mention slight chance of thunder during the diurnally favored times of afternoon to early evening, but overall instability looks limited at this time.
Temperatures will cool down closer to normal levels by mid week as well with the trough settling in.

AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 12z Friday...Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA with mainly MVFR conditions (brief IFR) possible around KPOU this morning associated with a cold front passage. Some lighter showers may affect KALB/KPSF, but the heavier SHRA/TSRA should remain south of these sites. VFR conditions will prevail after the cold front passage with gradual clearing through the rest of the afternoon.

Clear skies for tonight with drier advecting in. Patchy fog formation is possible if sufficient decoupling/cooling occurs, but confidence is low so will omit mention for now.

Winds will initially be south-southwest around 5 kt or less, then shift to the west and increase to 5-10 kt after the cold front passage this morning.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

Albany
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Thu -- 05:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:46 AM EDT     5.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:55 AM EDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 12:35 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:58 PM EDT     4.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
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Albany, New York, Tide feet

Castleton-on-Hudson
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Thu -- 05:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:29 AM EDT     5.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:55 AM EDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 12:06 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:41 PM EDT     3.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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