Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Albany, NY
July 4, 2024 6:19 AM EDT (10:19 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:21 AM Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 3:34 AM Moonset 8:08 PM |
FXUS61 KALY 040753 AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 353 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024
SYNOPSIS
Warm and more humid conditions are expected for Independence Day today with some spotty showers or thunderstorms around. With a frontal boundary around, the threat for a shower or thunderstorm will linger into Friday, with continued warm and muggy conditions. Hot and humid conditions are expected on Saturday with more thunderstorms around once again.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 353 AM EDT...A nearly stationary frontal boundary is located west of the region over the eastern Great Lakes. A weak pre-frontal surface trough is in place over Upstate New York.
MRMS imagery shows a broken line of showers, mainly light in intensity, stretching from the western and central Adirondacks back to the southwest across central New York and the Finger Lakes and towards western New York. Over the next few hours, some of this activity looks to spread towards the Lake George and Saratoga areas by late in the overnight and towards daybreak. Instability is limited at this time, with some low amounts of elevated CAPE located back across western New York.
While a stray rumble of thunder can't be ruled out within any heavier downpours, any thunderstorm activity looks fairly isolated through daybreak.
Otherwise, skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy across the region through the early morning hours. While winds have diminished in sheltered areas within the high terrain, most larger valley areas continue to see breeze southerly winds at this time. While dewpoints remain fairly low in the 50s, they will be creeping up towards sunrise.
A few brief lingering showers may continue to spread across far northern areas early this morning, but most areas should be dry to start the 4th of July with a partly sunny sky. Dewpoints will be inching up this morning and it will be starting to feel more muggy out with temperatures quickly warming into the 80s by the late morning hours.
During the afternoon hours, CAMs suggest a few isolated showers or t-storms may develop, mainly south of the Capital Region, as the weakening boundary settled eastward over the area. This front will be washing out over the area, but may provide enough of a focus for some diurnally-forced convection. While there will be some instability, CAPE values don't look too large, with values under 1000 J/kg and lapse rates will be fairly poor. As a result, any thunderstorms look to remain fairly brief and disorganized and no severe storms are anticipated, although brief heavy downpours will be possible.
Highs today look to reach the mid to upper 80s in valley areas, with upper 70s to low 80s in the high terrain.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Any convection should start to diminish after sunset this evening, allowing for mainly quiet conditions for tonight. It will be more humid than recent nights, so some patchy fog may developed in some typical sheltered areas. Otherwise, skies will be partly cloudy through the overnight with lows in the 60s.
On Friday, a slow moving surface boundary will be near or just south of the area, but will be lifting northward as a warm front by later in the day and into Friday night. Meanwhile, the region will be under the influence of south to southwest flow aloft, with an upper level disturbance well west of the region over the Midwest. With plenty of warm temps in place aloft, it will be a rather hot day on Friday, with valley areas reaching into the upper 80s to low 90s. Dewpoints will continue to creep up through the 60s and may even reach into the low 70s for valley areas. This could allow heat index values to come close to 95 degrees by afternoon in some valley areas, so will need to watch this closely in case any heat advisories will be needed.
Although the morning should be fairly dry, the warm and muggy air mass and nearby boundary could allow for some afternoon convection to develop. CAMs have different ideas regarding the exact placement and coverage of storms, but there will be the potential for some showers and t-storms to develop, especially for southern areas. With the warm temps aloft, lapse rates won't be overly impressive, but there should be some instability in place (00z SPC HRRR shows around 1000 J/kg by later in the day).
Can't totally rule out a stray severe storm due to precip loading, but the lack of upper level support and poor lapse rates should help prevent a more widespread threat for strong convection on Friday. Also, coverage of convection may be more isolated to scattered during the day on Friday. However, there may be more coverage around by the overnight hours as the frontal boundary lifts northward, although surface-based instability looks to be more limited during the overnight hours due to a nocturnal inversion in place near the surface. With higher PWATs in place, any storms on Friday night could contain heavy downpours, so a localized threat for ponding will be possible with any convection. It will be a mild and muggy night on Friday night with lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.
On Saturday, upper level shortwave trough will be lifting from the Upper Great Lakes and across southern Canada. A weak surface cold front will be trying to push across the area from the west.
Some additional convection is expected on Saturday, with the greatest coverage probably for eastern and southern areas and mainly earlier in the day. Models continue to have differing ideas regarding exact coverage/placement once again as well.
There could be a localized severe threat on Saturday, but the best heights falls and upper level dynamics are pretty far off to the northwest. With PWATs around two inches, heavy downpours may be a bigger threat, depending on where storms form and if any training occurs. Otherwise, it will be another warm and very humid day (dewpoints well into the 70s possible) with heat index values nearing advisory criteria in valley areas.
Behind the front, somewhat drier air tries to move in for Saturday night as dewpoints start to lower. The threat for showers/t-storms looks to lower on Sat night with lows back down into the 60s under a partly cloudy sky.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Dry conditions return for the start of the long term forecast period as surface high pressure approaches from the west and shortwave ridging builds in aloft. Saturday's cold front will become positioned just to the south of the region as a diffuse, stationary boundary but will pose no threat of precipitation Sunday into Monday a dry air filters in at the mid-levels and subsidence increases as a result of the high. Sunday's high temperatures will be the cooler of the two dry days with mid 70s to low 80s at higher elevations and mid to upper 80s in large valley areas. Monday will then feature highs in the upper 70s to low 80s above 1500 ft with more widespread mid/upper 80s to pockets of low 90s in the Hudson Valley courtesy of the slight increase in geopotential heights aloft and the surface anticyclone looking to be directly over the region. Luckily, with dewpoints anticipated in the upper 50s to mid 60s, heat indices Monday should not reach Heat Advisory criteria. Lows Sunday night will be in the mid 50s to low/mid 60s.
The aforementioned surface high will begin its southeast exit from eastern New York and western New England beginning Monday night and heights aloft will begin to decrease in advance of a disturbance upstream. Conditions throughout the night will remain largely dry, however, with low temperatures Monday falling into the 60s.
Attention then shifts to Tuesday and Wednesday as a frontal system and associated shortwave look to be the source of potentially widespread showers and some thunderstorms. Guidance is in fair agreement that a surface low will track from the Great Lakes north and east into southeast Ontario/southwest Quebec as the aforementioned shortwave rotates through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Tuesday. A secondary surface low also looks to potentially develop within the Mid-Atlantic region, providing an extra source of convergence near the area of PVA within the shortwave to enhance lift ahead of the system's cold front. Showers look to begin Tuesday evening to the north and west of Albany, overspreading to the south and east throughout the night and into Wednesday. Long range guidance indicated some weak to moderate instability across portions of the region that could aid in some embedded rumbles of thunder Tuesday evening into Wednesday, but confidence is not yet high in the likelihood of severe convection potential. We will continue to monitor this potential as lead time decreases.
High temperatures Tuesday will be similar to those of Monday especially if showers hold off until the evening/overnight hours as current guidance suggests. Again, heat indices look to fall below Heat Advisory criteria. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be primarily in the 60s. Wednesday will then be a cooler day with 70s anticipated above 1000 ft and low to mid 80s in valley areas.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 06z Friday...Flying conditions are VFR across all terminals this morning which is anticipated to continue through the remainder of the overnight period. IR satellite imagery shows some high and mid/low-level clouds streaming into the region ahead of a cool frontal boundary, but showers have been kept at bay of the terminals thus far this morning. A few light showers are possible later this morning, closer to daybreak, but little impact to flying conditions is expected.
While only the KALB METAR indicates a high-level ceiling as of this update, lower-level, though still VFR, ceilings are anticipated to develop at all terminals throughout the morning as the aforementioned boundary continues to slide south and east into the region. Then, later this afternoon, some widely scattered showers are possible especially at KPOU and KPSF but cannot be ruled out at KALB. Precipitation rates look to be light enough to not cause impact to visibility at KALB, but some heavier downpours will be possible at KPOU and KPSF which could lead to MVFR visibilities. At this time, forecast soundings are not pointing towards MVFR ceilings, but this could certainly change with future updates to guidance. Will monitor these updates and make adjustments if need be with coming TAF cycles.
Showers look to be the most likely between 18-22z this afternoon. Once shower activity has concluded, any deviations from VFR ceilings/visibility should improve back to favored flying conditions through the remainder of the 06z TAF period.
Winds throughout this cycle will be relatively light and variable at sustained speeds ranging from 5-10 kt.
Outlook...
Friday Night: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 353 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024
SYNOPSIS
Warm and more humid conditions are expected for Independence Day today with some spotty showers or thunderstorms around. With a frontal boundary around, the threat for a shower or thunderstorm will linger into Friday, with continued warm and muggy conditions. Hot and humid conditions are expected on Saturday with more thunderstorms around once again.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 353 AM EDT...A nearly stationary frontal boundary is located west of the region over the eastern Great Lakes. A weak pre-frontal surface trough is in place over Upstate New York.
MRMS imagery shows a broken line of showers, mainly light in intensity, stretching from the western and central Adirondacks back to the southwest across central New York and the Finger Lakes and towards western New York. Over the next few hours, some of this activity looks to spread towards the Lake George and Saratoga areas by late in the overnight and towards daybreak. Instability is limited at this time, with some low amounts of elevated CAPE located back across western New York.
While a stray rumble of thunder can't be ruled out within any heavier downpours, any thunderstorm activity looks fairly isolated through daybreak.
Otherwise, skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy across the region through the early morning hours. While winds have diminished in sheltered areas within the high terrain, most larger valley areas continue to see breeze southerly winds at this time. While dewpoints remain fairly low in the 50s, they will be creeping up towards sunrise.
A few brief lingering showers may continue to spread across far northern areas early this morning, but most areas should be dry to start the 4th of July with a partly sunny sky. Dewpoints will be inching up this morning and it will be starting to feel more muggy out with temperatures quickly warming into the 80s by the late morning hours.
During the afternoon hours, CAMs suggest a few isolated showers or t-storms may develop, mainly south of the Capital Region, as the weakening boundary settled eastward over the area. This front will be washing out over the area, but may provide enough of a focus for some diurnally-forced convection. While there will be some instability, CAPE values don't look too large, with values under 1000 J/kg and lapse rates will be fairly poor. As a result, any thunderstorms look to remain fairly brief and disorganized and no severe storms are anticipated, although brief heavy downpours will be possible.
Highs today look to reach the mid to upper 80s in valley areas, with upper 70s to low 80s in the high terrain.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Any convection should start to diminish after sunset this evening, allowing for mainly quiet conditions for tonight. It will be more humid than recent nights, so some patchy fog may developed in some typical sheltered areas. Otherwise, skies will be partly cloudy through the overnight with lows in the 60s.
On Friday, a slow moving surface boundary will be near or just south of the area, but will be lifting northward as a warm front by later in the day and into Friday night. Meanwhile, the region will be under the influence of south to southwest flow aloft, with an upper level disturbance well west of the region over the Midwest. With plenty of warm temps in place aloft, it will be a rather hot day on Friday, with valley areas reaching into the upper 80s to low 90s. Dewpoints will continue to creep up through the 60s and may even reach into the low 70s for valley areas. This could allow heat index values to come close to 95 degrees by afternoon in some valley areas, so will need to watch this closely in case any heat advisories will be needed.
Although the morning should be fairly dry, the warm and muggy air mass and nearby boundary could allow for some afternoon convection to develop. CAMs have different ideas regarding the exact placement and coverage of storms, but there will be the potential for some showers and t-storms to develop, especially for southern areas. With the warm temps aloft, lapse rates won't be overly impressive, but there should be some instability in place (00z SPC HRRR shows around 1000 J/kg by later in the day).
Can't totally rule out a stray severe storm due to precip loading, but the lack of upper level support and poor lapse rates should help prevent a more widespread threat for strong convection on Friday. Also, coverage of convection may be more isolated to scattered during the day on Friday. However, there may be more coverage around by the overnight hours as the frontal boundary lifts northward, although surface-based instability looks to be more limited during the overnight hours due to a nocturnal inversion in place near the surface. With higher PWATs in place, any storms on Friday night could contain heavy downpours, so a localized threat for ponding will be possible with any convection. It will be a mild and muggy night on Friday night with lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.
On Saturday, upper level shortwave trough will be lifting from the Upper Great Lakes and across southern Canada. A weak surface cold front will be trying to push across the area from the west.
Some additional convection is expected on Saturday, with the greatest coverage probably for eastern and southern areas and mainly earlier in the day. Models continue to have differing ideas regarding exact coverage/placement once again as well.
There could be a localized severe threat on Saturday, but the best heights falls and upper level dynamics are pretty far off to the northwest. With PWATs around two inches, heavy downpours may be a bigger threat, depending on where storms form and if any training occurs. Otherwise, it will be another warm and very humid day (dewpoints well into the 70s possible) with heat index values nearing advisory criteria in valley areas.
Behind the front, somewhat drier air tries to move in for Saturday night as dewpoints start to lower. The threat for showers/t-storms looks to lower on Sat night with lows back down into the 60s under a partly cloudy sky.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Dry conditions return for the start of the long term forecast period as surface high pressure approaches from the west and shortwave ridging builds in aloft. Saturday's cold front will become positioned just to the south of the region as a diffuse, stationary boundary but will pose no threat of precipitation Sunday into Monday a dry air filters in at the mid-levels and subsidence increases as a result of the high. Sunday's high temperatures will be the cooler of the two dry days with mid 70s to low 80s at higher elevations and mid to upper 80s in large valley areas. Monday will then feature highs in the upper 70s to low 80s above 1500 ft with more widespread mid/upper 80s to pockets of low 90s in the Hudson Valley courtesy of the slight increase in geopotential heights aloft and the surface anticyclone looking to be directly over the region. Luckily, with dewpoints anticipated in the upper 50s to mid 60s, heat indices Monday should not reach Heat Advisory criteria. Lows Sunday night will be in the mid 50s to low/mid 60s.
The aforementioned surface high will begin its southeast exit from eastern New York and western New England beginning Monday night and heights aloft will begin to decrease in advance of a disturbance upstream. Conditions throughout the night will remain largely dry, however, with low temperatures Monday falling into the 60s.
Attention then shifts to Tuesday and Wednesday as a frontal system and associated shortwave look to be the source of potentially widespread showers and some thunderstorms. Guidance is in fair agreement that a surface low will track from the Great Lakes north and east into southeast Ontario/southwest Quebec as the aforementioned shortwave rotates through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Tuesday. A secondary surface low also looks to potentially develop within the Mid-Atlantic region, providing an extra source of convergence near the area of PVA within the shortwave to enhance lift ahead of the system's cold front. Showers look to begin Tuesday evening to the north and west of Albany, overspreading to the south and east throughout the night and into Wednesday. Long range guidance indicated some weak to moderate instability across portions of the region that could aid in some embedded rumbles of thunder Tuesday evening into Wednesday, but confidence is not yet high in the likelihood of severe convection potential. We will continue to monitor this potential as lead time decreases.
High temperatures Tuesday will be similar to those of Monday especially if showers hold off until the evening/overnight hours as current guidance suggests. Again, heat indices look to fall below Heat Advisory criteria. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be primarily in the 60s. Wednesday will then be a cooler day with 70s anticipated above 1000 ft and low to mid 80s in valley areas.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 06z Friday...Flying conditions are VFR across all terminals this morning which is anticipated to continue through the remainder of the overnight period. IR satellite imagery shows some high and mid/low-level clouds streaming into the region ahead of a cool frontal boundary, but showers have been kept at bay of the terminals thus far this morning. A few light showers are possible later this morning, closer to daybreak, but little impact to flying conditions is expected.
While only the KALB METAR indicates a high-level ceiling as of this update, lower-level, though still VFR, ceilings are anticipated to develop at all terminals throughout the morning as the aforementioned boundary continues to slide south and east into the region. Then, later this afternoon, some widely scattered showers are possible especially at KPOU and KPSF but cannot be ruled out at KALB. Precipitation rates look to be light enough to not cause impact to visibility at KALB, but some heavier downpours will be possible at KPOU and KPSF which could lead to MVFR visibilities. At this time, forecast soundings are not pointing towards MVFR ceilings, but this could certainly change with future updates to guidance. Will monitor these updates and make adjustments if need be with coming TAF cycles.
Showers look to be the most likely between 18-22z this afternoon. Once shower activity has concluded, any deviations from VFR ceilings/visibility should improve back to favored flying conditions through the remainder of the 06z TAF period.
Winds throughout this cycle will be relatively light and variable at sustained speeds ranging from 5-10 kt.
Outlook...
Friday Night: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY | 43 mi | 50 min | 0 | 70°F | 29.95 | 56°F | ||
| TKPN6 | 43 mi | 50 min | S 8.9G | 71°F | 76°F | 29.99 | 60°F |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KALB
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KALB
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KALB
Wind History graph: ALB
(wind in knots)Albany
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:33 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 04:14 AM EDT 5.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:22 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 11:03 AM EDT -0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:47 PM EDT 3.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:07 PM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 08:35 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 11:03 PM EDT -0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:33 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 04:14 AM EDT 5.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:22 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 11:03 AM EDT -0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:47 PM EDT 3.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:07 PM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 08:35 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 11:03 PM EDT -0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Albany, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.3 |
| 1 am |
| 2.8 |
| 2 am |
| 4 |
| 3 am |
| 4.9 |
| 4 am |
| 5.4 |
| 5 am |
| 5.2 |
| 6 am |
| 4.4 |
| 7 am |
| 3.4 |
| 8 am |
| 2.4 |
| 9 am |
| 1.3 |
| 10 am |
| 0 |
| 11 am |
| -0.5 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 1 |
| 2 pm |
| 2 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.2 |
Castleton-on-Hudson
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:34 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 03:57 AM EDT 5.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:23 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 10:34 AM EDT -0.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:30 PM EDT 3.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:07 PM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 08:35 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:34 PM EDT -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:34 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 03:57 AM EDT 5.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:23 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 10:34 AM EDT -0.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:30 PM EDT 3.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:07 PM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 08:35 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:34 PM EDT -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.9 |
| 1 am |
| 3.2 |
| 2 am |
| 4.2 |
| 3 am |
| 4.9 |
| 4 am |
| 5.2 |
| 5 am |
| 4.8 |
| 6 am |
| 3.9 |
| 7 am |
| 3 |
| 8 am |
| 2 |
| 9 am |
| 0.7 |
| 10 am |
| -0.3 |
| 11 am |
| -0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 3 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 0 |
| 11 pm |
| -0 |
Albany, NY,
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