Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Englewood, CO
June 14, 2024 11:30 PM MDT (05:30 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:30 AM Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 12:28 PM Moonset 12:22 AM |
Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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FXUS65 KBOU 150258 AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 858 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A return to hot and mainly dry weather this weekend into early next week.
- Snowmelt producing minor impacts from high streams. Gradually diminishing flows next week.
UPDATE
Issued at 856 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024
A new batch of convection is developing over Morgan, Weld and Logan COunties this evening. A couple decent boundaries are pushing southwestward and northwestward toward the Urban Corridor at this time. The convection pushing eastward over western Colorado is dissipating significantly.
Will still need to keep the "scattered" pops going over most of the plains through the rest of the evening as per current conditions. Some of the high resolution models are still showing convection for the rest of the evening. Skies should clear out pretty well after midnight with subsidence behind the upper trough. Will make some GFE grid changes to the wind, temperature and pops fields.
SHORT TERM /Through Saturday/
Issued at 123 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024
A strong short wave trough will continue to provide lift for showers and thunderstorms through this evening. The wave will then move across eastern Colorado tonight and be east of the state for Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will track east across Colorado this afternoon and early evening. With temperatures in the lower 80s and dew point in the lower 60s, MLCAPE has climbed to 2000 J/kg over the eastern plains. There may be just enough shear for a couple supercell thunderstorms to form. However with large scale ascent, expect storms to organize into a line as they track east across the plains. Hail slightly larger than 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts to 75 mph will be possible with the stronger storms. Can't rule out a brief tornado over the northeast plains where there is stronger low level winds (better shear).
The strong/severe storms will be east of the area by mid evening, however a second round of showers and weak thunderstorms is expected this evening as the trough tracks across the state.
For Saturday, weak ridging in the westerly flow aloft will follow today's system. Temperatures warm back up into the lower 90s.
MLCAPE reaches 500 J/kg. Moisture decreases with dew points falling into the 30s during the afternoon. We end up with just enough moisture and instability for high-based showers and possibly a few weak thunderstorms during the afternoon. Gusty outflow winds will be the main impact from the showers and storms.
LONG TERM /Saturday night through Friday/
Issued at 123 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Sunday will be the hotter day of the weekend as the mid-level thermal ridge approaches the region. Much drier air aloft is also expected, with increasing southwesterly flow aloft. There would still be a slim chance of a couple of weak/high-based showers in the afternoon but the continued drying should limit those chances.
High temperatures in this pattern should reach the mid 90s, though recent GFS/ECM MOS products give highs closer to 100F. A few models try to push in a weak front into the northeastern plains - perhaps aided by a weak Denver cyclone - that could keep temperatures a bit cooler across the Denver metro and adjacent plains.
The heat is expected to continue into Monday. Deterministic and ensemble models are in good agreement with the dry/southwesterly flow pattern continuing. GFS/ECM 700mb temperatures are roughly 1-2C warmer than Sunday (near 20-21C), and while ensembles are (unsurprisingly) a bit cooler, those temperatures still lie near the 90-99th percentile of the CSFR climatology. Forecast highs will again be short of record (100F) but should still rise into the mid/upper 90s across most of the plains. Another frontal push may keep temperatures a bit cooler than forecast but confidence regarding if/where that front tracks is low.
An approaching trough axis should bring relief from the heat by Tuesday and Wednesday with the axis of the thermal ridge shunted off into the Great Plains. Though widespread precipitation isn't expected, the increase in moisture should allow for at least scattered showers and storms while high temperatures remain closer to normal values.
Forecast solutions diverge towards the end of next week. The general pattern looks well forecast, with ridging rebuilding across the eastern U.S. with a series of shortwaves tracking across the northern Rockies. There are differences in the timing/location of these waves and with the strength of the ridging to our east, but the pattern favors above normal temperatures returning by late week.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday/
Issued at 626 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Most of the models show more convection for DIA later this evening.
There is still quite a bit of activity upstream at this time as well. Will go with TEMPO -SHRA from 03Z-06Z. Will also have a VCTS from 03Z-06Z. Ceilings could get down to BKN070 with the showers. For winds, will get normal drainage patterns going after 06Z.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 123 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible Sunday and Monday with well above normal temperatures and drying humidity values. Increasing flow aloft will lead to gusty winds, especially across the high country on both days, with lighter speeds across the plains. Main question is just how dry we'll get. Models attempt to push a weak surface cold front or two into the northeast plains on Sunday and/or Monday, with dew points remaining in the 50s north of the front. There are also additional uncertainties regarding fuels status across our forecast area.
RAWS-based ERC/Fuel Moisture charts suggest that the recent warm spells have dried things out, but are generally near or just below normal.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 123 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Precipitable water values of 1 to 1.5(in) and dew points around 60F degrees will provide ample moisture for thunderstorms to produce heavy rainfall. Where storms remain station or track over the same area, flooding will be possible.
Elevated flows continue in the mountain streams, with Flood Advisories remaining in effect for the streams above Granby and Grand Lake. Remain alert of the dangers of water that is running high and cold. Flows are expected to gradually decrease next week as the peak snowmelt is passing by.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 858 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A return to hot and mainly dry weather this weekend into early next week.
- Snowmelt producing minor impacts from high streams. Gradually diminishing flows next week.
UPDATE
Issued at 856 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024
A new batch of convection is developing over Morgan, Weld and Logan COunties this evening. A couple decent boundaries are pushing southwestward and northwestward toward the Urban Corridor at this time. The convection pushing eastward over western Colorado is dissipating significantly.
Will still need to keep the "scattered" pops going over most of the plains through the rest of the evening as per current conditions. Some of the high resolution models are still showing convection for the rest of the evening. Skies should clear out pretty well after midnight with subsidence behind the upper trough. Will make some GFE grid changes to the wind, temperature and pops fields.
SHORT TERM /Through Saturday/
Issued at 123 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024
A strong short wave trough will continue to provide lift for showers and thunderstorms through this evening. The wave will then move across eastern Colorado tonight and be east of the state for Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will track east across Colorado this afternoon and early evening. With temperatures in the lower 80s and dew point in the lower 60s, MLCAPE has climbed to 2000 J/kg over the eastern plains. There may be just enough shear for a couple supercell thunderstorms to form. However with large scale ascent, expect storms to organize into a line as they track east across the plains. Hail slightly larger than 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts to 75 mph will be possible with the stronger storms. Can't rule out a brief tornado over the northeast plains where there is stronger low level winds (better shear).
The strong/severe storms will be east of the area by mid evening, however a second round of showers and weak thunderstorms is expected this evening as the trough tracks across the state.
For Saturday, weak ridging in the westerly flow aloft will follow today's system. Temperatures warm back up into the lower 90s.
MLCAPE reaches 500 J/kg. Moisture decreases with dew points falling into the 30s during the afternoon. We end up with just enough moisture and instability for high-based showers and possibly a few weak thunderstorms during the afternoon. Gusty outflow winds will be the main impact from the showers and storms.
LONG TERM /Saturday night through Friday/
Issued at 123 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Sunday will be the hotter day of the weekend as the mid-level thermal ridge approaches the region. Much drier air aloft is also expected, with increasing southwesterly flow aloft. There would still be a slim chance of a couple of weak/high-based showers in the afternoon but the continued drying should limit those chances.
High temperatures in this pattern should reach the mid 90s, though recent GFS/ECM MOS products give highs closer to 100F. A few models try to push in a weak front into the northeastern plains - perhaps aided by a weak Denver cyclone - that could keep temperatures a bit cooler across the Denver metro and adjacent plains.
The heat is expected to continue into Monday. Deterministic and ensemble models are in good agreement with the dry/southwesterly flow pattern continuing. GFS/ECM 700mb temperatures are roughly 1-2C warmer than Sunday (near 20-21C), and while ensembles are (unsurprisingly) a bit cooler, those temperatures still lie near the 90-99th percentile of the CSFR climatology. Forecast highs will again be short of record (100F) but should still rise into the mid/upper 90s across most of the plains. Another frontal push may keep temperatures a bit cooler than forecast but confidence regarding if/where that front tracks is low.
An approaching trough axis should bring relief from the heat by Tuesday and Wednesday with the axis of the thermal ridge shunted off into the Great Plains. Though widespread precipitation isn't expected, the increase in moisture should allow for at least scattered showers and storms while high temperatures remain closer to normal values.
Forecast solutions diverge towards the end of next week. The general pattern looks well forecast, with ridging rebuilding across the eastern U.S. with a series of shortwaves tracking across the northern Rockies. There are differences in the timing/location of these waves and with the strength of the ridging to our east, but the pattern favors above normal temperatures returning by late week.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday/
Issued at 626 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Most of the models show more convection for DIA later this evening.
There is still quite a bit of activity upstream at this time as well. Will go with TEMPO -SHRA from 03Z-06Z. Will also have a VCTS from 03Z-06Z. Ceilings could get down to BKN070 with the showers. For winds, will get normal drainage patterns going after 06Z.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 123 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible Sunday and Monday with well above normal temperatures and drying humidity values. Increasing flow aloft will lead to gusty winds, especially across the high country on both days, with lighter speeds across the plains. Main question is just how dry we'll get. Models attempt to push a weak surface cold front or two into the northeast plains on Sunday and/or Monday, with dew points remaining in the 50s north of the front. There are also additional uncertainties regarding fuels status across our forecast area.
RAWS-based ERC/Fuel Moisture charts suggest that the recent warm spells have dried things out, but are generally near or just below normal.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 123 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Precipitable water values of 1 to 1.5(in) and dew points around 60F degrees will provide ample moisture for thunderstorms to produce heavy rainfall. Where storms remain station or track over the same area, flooding will be possible.
Elevated flows continue in the mountain streams, with Flood Advisories remaining in effect for the streams above Granby and Grand Lake. Remain alert of the dangers of water that is running high and cold. Flows are expected to gradually decrease next week as the peak snowmelt is passing by.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KAPA CENTENNIAL,CO | 11 sm | 37 min | S 09G19 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 63°F | 45°F | 52% | 30.03 | |
| KBKF BUCKLEY AFB,CO | 13 sm | 32 min | SSW 10 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 66°F | 43°F | 43% | 30.01 | |
| KBJC ROCKY MOUNTAIN METROPOLITAN,CO | 17 sm | 15 min | NNW 09 | 10 sm | Clear | 66°F | 50°F | 56% | 30.04 | |
| KDEN DENVER INTL,CO | 21 sm | 37 min | WSW 08 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 66°F | 45°F | 46% | 30.00 | |
| KEIK ERIE MUNI,CO | 23 sm | 15 min | N 05 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 64°F | 59°F | 83% | 30.00 |
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Wind History graph: APA
(wind in knots)
Denver/Boulder, CO,
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