Sunrise 6:35 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 11:23 PM   Moonset 10:14 AM

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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1000 Am Edt Wed Jun 26 2024
Rest of today - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Wave detail: W sw 1 foot at 2 seconds and W sw 1 foot at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the morning. Tonight - W sw winds 5 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Wave detail: W 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Wave detail: W sw 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu night - S winds 5 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Wave detail: W nw 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and tstms late in the evening, then a chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Fri - S se winds 5 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Wave detail: W 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri night - E se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Wave detail: S se 1 foot at 2 seconds and nw 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the morning. A chance of tstms. Showers likely. Sat night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Sun - E winds 5 to 10 kt becoming se. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.

GMZ600 942 Am Cdt Wed Jun 26 2024
Synopsis - A light to occasionally moderate southwesterly to westerly flow is expected to continue through the week except locally higher near showers and Thunderstorms that develop.

FXUS62 KMFL 261431 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1031 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 1024 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

12Z MFL sounding indicates moist atmospheric profile from SFC to around 700 mb. PW around 2.11 inches and light mean westerly steering flow from SFC-500 mb will generally allow for thunderstorms to development this afternoon. Localized flooding is the primary threat, and an isolated instance of flash flooding cannot be ruled out, particularly for recently soaked regions.
Convection should follow typical diurnal regime and cease/wane after sunset.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A rather typical summertime weather pattern will continue across South Florida through Thursday with the region sitting under weak mid-level troughing. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be around each day, fueled by diurnal heating and deep moisture pooled over the area. With the low-level winds being weak out of the W-SW, expect a convective regime of showers and thunderstorms first developing along sea breeze boundaries late morning/early afternoon, then moving over the interior/East Coast metro areas. A few storms could become strong, capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. Slow storm motions may result in localized flooding concerns for poor drainage areas, or locations hit with multiple rounds of storms.

Afternoon max temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s each day, with heat index values around 100-105. Overnight lows be warm, dropping to the mid 70s over the inland areas and upper 70s to low 80s closer to the coast.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Overall, the typical summertime pattern will continue through most of the long term period with warm temperatures and daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. There will be a gradual transition at the synoptic scale from Friday through the weekend as weak mid-level troughing over the Florida Peninsula finally gets kicked out by extensive mid-level ridging building over the Gulf states.
Throughout this time period, mesoscale dynamics will be the primary driver of convective initiation, with near-normal PWAT values supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. With steady easterly flow at the surface, the convection regime will generally follow isolated showers or storms over the East Coast Metro in the morning, then increasing in coverage and shifting over the interior and Gulf Coast areas during the afternoon and early evening.
Localized flooding will be the main hazard to monitor given the weak flow pattern.

One factor in the forecast that could lead to less convective activity is the potential for the first notable Saharan Air Layer (SAL) plume to move over South Florida over the weekend into early next week. This would be pretty typical for late June or early July in our area, but the only impact aside from slightly hazy skies would be the drier air dampening daytime convection a bit.

Temperatures for the long term period will remain near to just above our seasonal averages, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and peak heat indices in the triple digits. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 743 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Mostly VFR conditions prevail through the morning hours, though MVFR conditions may linger for an hour or two at near/over APF.
Conditions will gradually deteriorate this afternoon, as SCT/NMRS TSRA develop this afternoon due to westerly surface winds converging with the Atlantic sea-breeze. As a result, brief IFR/LIFR conditions may be realized over TAF sites, and short- fused TEMPOs could be necessary. W/SW winds generally become light/vrb after 00Z. Sea breezes may cause SSE/WSW wind shift over east/west coasts respectively.

MARINE
Issued at 206 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Gentle southwesterly winds will remain in place across the local waters for most of the week, resulting in generally benign conditions. Both Atlantic and Gulf seas will be quite smooth at generally 1 foot or less. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could result in locally higher winds and seas each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 91 77 92 78 / 80 20 60 20 West Kendall 91 75 92 76 / 80 30 60 10 Opa-Locka 91 77 92 78 / 80 20 60 20 Homestead 91 77 91 78 / 80 20 50 20 Fort Lauderdale 89 77 90 78 / 80 30 60 20 N Ft Lauderdale 89 77 92 78 / 80 20 60 20 Pembroke Pines 92 78 93 79 / 80 30 60 20 West Palm Beach 90 75 92 76 / 80 20 60 20 Boca Raton 90 76 92 77 / 80 20 60 20 Naples 89 79 90 79 / 70 10 60 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

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Marco
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Wed -- 05:43 AM EDT     1.92 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:58 AM EDT     1.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:25 PM EDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:56 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Marco, Big Marco River, Florida, Tide feet

Naples (outer coast)
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Wed -- 05:13 AM EDT     2.48 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:09 AM EDT     1.43 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:38 PM EDT     2.98 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:01 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Naples (outer coast), Florida, Tide feet

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