LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The typical summertime pattern of showers and thunderstorms will persist through the extended period, with minor adjustments in the synoptic setup around South Florida. As we enter the work week, mid- level ridging over the Western Atlantic will continue to strengthen over the peninsula, maintaining southeasterly flow at the surface as South Florida remains on the southwestern periphery of the Atlantic High. Models indicate the arrival of a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) plume over the CWA on Monday and Tuesday. This SAL intrusion is expected to result in a noticeable reduction in PWATs and 700mb RH early next week. Should this drier air materialize, it will likely play a key role in reducing the coverage and intensity of rainfall. By mid- week, the SAL will exit, allowing deeper tropical moisture to advect into the CWA in its wake. Despite the potential intrusion of dry air early next week, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the extended forecast. Convection will primarily develop along the East Coast sea breeze front, pushing inland during the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will remain warm, with highs reaching the low to mid-90s and heat indices exceeding 100 degrees each afternoon.
Regarding sensible weather, Sunday poses a forecast challenge.
Cooler temperatures aloft combined with steeper mid-level lapse rates ahead of the drier air may slightly increase the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms over the CWA, particularly near the Gulf Breeze along the southwest Florida coast.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Increasing convective activity the next few hours with chances for VCTS near all sites through the evening. Most guidance shows activity initiating just inland of East Coast sites, but some rogue showers and storms could drift eastward. Short-fuse TEMPOs could be needed. Light easterly flow at the east coast sites, with light westerly flow at APF. Generally VFR conditions with light and variable winds return after 02Z. Chances for VCSH/VCTS return Saturday afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Generally light easterly-southeasterly will prevail across local waters into the weekend as ridging prevails, although winds could shift to the W-SW over the near-shore Gulf waters as the Gulf breeze develops. Seas will remain in the 1-3 ft range. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop each day, resulting in locally higher winds and seas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 78 92 79 92 / 30 40 20 40 West Kendall 76 92 77 92 / 30 40 20 40 Opa-Locka 78 93 79 92 / 30 40 20 40 Homestead 78 91 79 90 / 30 40 20 40 Fort Lauderdale 79 90 79 90 / 20 30 20 40 N Ft Lauderdale 79 91 80 92 / 20 30 20 40 Pembroke Pines 78 94 79 94 / 30 30 20 40 West Palm Beach 76 92 78 92 / 10 30 10 40 Boca Raton 78 92 79 92 / 10 30 10 40 Naples 79 92 79 92 / 40 60 20 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.