Sunrise 5:18 AM   Sunset 9:07 PM Moonrise 4:04 PM   Moonset 1:27 AM

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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 218 Pm Pdt Mon Jun 17 2024
In the main channel -
General seas - Around 4 ft through Tuesday afternoon.
First ebb - Ebb current of 2.36 kt at 212 pm Monday. Seas 4 ft.
SEcond ebb - Ebb current of 4.81 kt at 242 am Tuesday. Seas 4 ft.
Third ebb - Ebb current of 2.36 kt at 304 pm Tuesday. Seas 4 ft.

PZZ200 218 Pm Pdt Mon Jun 17 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - High pressure offshore will persist through the week with increasing northerlies across the coastal waters.

FXUS66 KPQR 172218 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 318 PM PDT Mon Jun 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
Showers decrease this evening as low pressure exits the region. Drier conditions return tomorrow, with winds turning more northerly. Wednesday to Friday, conditions become much warmer and drier as light easterly winds downslope from the Cascades. Conditions begin to cool down and become more moist late this weekend.

SHORT TERM
Now through Wednesday night...Radar imagery as of 230 PM PDT depicts lingering shower activity across portions of northwest OR and southwest WA, mainly over the Cascade foothills, Cascades, and northern Willamette Valley. Based on CAM guidance, expect lingering showers to decrease through this evening as low pressure exits the area. Westerly winds will also gradually ease. Overnight lows will be pretty chilly for mid to late June, forecast in the 40s for interior valleys and 30s for high terrain. Tomorrow (Tuesday), expect warmer weather as 500 mb heights increase. Temps will be near seasonal normals, with highs forecast in the low to mid 70s for interior valleys and 60s along the coast. Winds will also turn more northerly, bringing drier air to the region.

Wednesday, we'll start to see a thermal trough developing east of the Cascades over central Oregon. This will lead to light (less than 10 mph) easterly winds downsloping from the Cascades, but most Willamette Valley winds will be northerly. As a result, expect much warmer conditions in the Willamette Valley and lower relative humidities (around 30%). Wednesday afternoon highs are forecast to climb into the mid 80s for interior valleys. NBM probabilities for temps greater than 85 degrees for interior valleys are currently around 60-80%. Meanwhile, the coast will still remain mild with higher humidity and temps in the 60s as they maintain a slight onshore component to the wind. -Alviz

LONG TERM
Thursday through Monday...High pressure increases through the remainder of the weekend, though it is a bit more convoluted as there is not good vertical continuity. While high pressure is forming at the surface, a troughing pattern is developing in the mid levels. However, looking at the jet stream (around 35,000 ft) there is a very clear ridging pattern.
Because of this overall messy pattern, confidence is a bit lower than desired for the long term forecast. In a similar realm to locations in the east, we will be warming up quite a bit but not nearly as hot. Ultimately, temperatures will be just slightly above normal. They challenge remains "just how hot will it be?".
Thursday will be the first day of considerable warming with temperatures forecast in the mid to upper 80s inland, and cooler along the coast. Friday is slated to be the hottest day of the week with the NBM showing temperatures into the 90s around Portland. Now, the NBM has been quite variable increasing temperatures day by day.

Specifically looking at the greater Portland/Vancouver-Metro area, the box and whisker plots for temperatures has narrowed which generally would coincide with more confidence in the forecast. However, looking at the other long-term ensembles, it is a bit less clear. Maximum temperatures around Troutdale on Friday have the highest probability to be around 85-90 Degrees F, with only an 10% chance of exceeding 90 degrees F. The NBM deterministic is putting Troutdale right at and slightly above 90 degrees. Given the variability have decided to let the NBM ride until we get a few more runs to hopefully narrow in on a better pattern. The other component to feature with this is a weak north to easterly wind throughout most of the forecast area. This will enhance warming, and drying with humidity plummeting ranging from 20-30% with the driest conditions along the Cascades and the Columbia River Gorge. The east wind could increase downslope and warming which may be contributing to the higher temperatures.

Saturday will be the transitional day as a long wave trough begins to drop down from the Gulf of Alaska. 500 mb heights are lowering to the north, and the bulk of the low aloft will transcend along the WA/Canadian border. This system will usher in cooler air dropping temperatures on Sunday. Precipitation is possible with southwesterly flow, but accumulations will be minimal and not impactful. -Muessle



AVIATION
Scattered showers continue this afternoon in northwest flow on the backside of a trough. Most of the shower activity and associated MVFR conditions are north of the Lincoln City to Salem line. Showers are expected to diminish through the afternoon and evening but with moist onshore flow continuing into Tuesday mountains could be obscured at times. For the TAF sites there is a 30-50% chance for MVFR cigs in the Willamette Valley north of KSLE from about 11Z to 17Z Tue.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Brief MVFR with with passing showers through about 00Z Tue, then should trend to VFR. Guidance shows about a 40% chance for MVFR cigs near 3000 ft 12-17Z Tue in the area.
Northwest winds increase to around 6-8 kt this afternoon into the evening before easing. /mh

MARINE
High pressure offshore is expected to persist through the week. Northwest winds 10-15 kt across coastal waters today becoming northerly on Tuesday. North winds begin to increase later Tuesday afternoon as a thermal trough strengthens from northern CA into southern OR, so have issued a Small Craft Advisory for PZZ 253, 273, but may need to be extended further north. Expect will see periods of winds gusting up to 25 kt through Friday during the late afternoon and evenings. Seas around 4 to 6 feet will generally be wind driven through the week. /mh /DH

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 4 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ253-273.

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