Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Benton Harbor, MI
July 3, 2024 5:24 AM EDT (09:24 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:13 AM Sunset 9:24 PM Moonrise 2:41 AM Moonset 6:54 PM |
LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 405 Am Edt Wed Jul 3 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 am edt this morning - .
Early this morning - Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Today - Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms until midday, then Sunny in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight - Southwest winds around 5 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Independence day - Southwest winds around 5 knots veering northwest late in the day. Partly Sunny. Waves less than 1 foot.
Thursday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering southeast after midnight. Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves less than 1 foot.
Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots veering southwest. Partly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday - West winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ800
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Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 030912 AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 512 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
-There is a marginal risk for strong to severe storms today between 2 and 8 pm EDT. The best chance will be south of US 24. Damaging winds and heavy rain are the main threats. Highs will be in the 80s, with locations south of US 24 seeing heat indices in the low 90s.
-There are chances for showers and thunderstorms most days into early next week, but especially Thursday night into Friday and then again Tuesday. Highs will be in the 80s. Lows will be in the 60s. Severe weather is not expected at this time.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 511 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
There is a marginal risk for strong to severe storms today for locations south of US 24, especially along/east of I 69. As of this writing we're sitting in the warm sector of a surface low centered over Central Wisconsin, with the warm front extending into Lower Michigan from roughly Ludington to Detroit. Further west in IL/WI is the cold front, slightly slower than anticipated in previous forecasts. Still, light rain and isolated thunderstorms exist out ahead of it thanks to a pre-frontal trough, with lightning/thunder more likely as you head further south where a convective complex in NE Missouri/SW IL is trucking eastward. This complex may end up hogging some of our moisture transport this morning, which will limit pop coverage initially as the trough enters our area. Have roughly 20-30 percent chances this morning, weakening with limited moisture transport and washed out forcing (better west with main front). It's possible we see just sprinkles or light rain showers between 12-17z, then a reinvigoration as the actual cold front moves into the forecast area from 18z-00z. Expect the cold front to be entering our west around 15-18z timeframe, reaching the central CW around 20z and then exiting by around 00z-03z. Expect rain and storm coverage to be pretty isolated-scattered at first, then consolidate and become more numerous as we get into the late afternoon/evening.
It's possible the storms become more organized just south and east of our forecast area, which is why SPC did trim the Slight out of our area, and the marginal back to south of US 24 (mainly east of I 69). That being said, most of the guidance still shows decent destabilization this afternoon (500-1200 J/kg of surface based CAPE...the GFS has 1500-2000 in our marginal risk area), and we have potentially up to 20-30 knots of 0-6 km shear to work with. Still, mid level lapse rates are fairly paltry, so don't expect severe storm coverage to be more than isolated (2-5 pm EDT) to maybe scattered (5-8 pm EDT). Once we lose our daytime heating and the front exits the area, expect mostly dry conditions (save for some low chance pops in the far south where the front could linger a little longer than forecast). Confidence is low in severe weather potential, but if it does occur, expect damaging winds and heavy rain to be the primary threats.
Thursday (Independence Day) is a tricky forecast-and models have struggled with this the past few days bouncing between dry and then chances for showers/storms, likely because there is uncertainty as to how far south the cold front from today will make it before stalling, then if/when/how far it will shift back northward as a warm front Thursday into Thursday night. Much of the guidance has the warm front lifting north into Lower MI (From roughly Holland to Detroit)b by 12-15z Friday morning, and the cold front extending down from Central WI To IL (much like this morning, actually).
Aloft, flow is fairly zonal for Thursday, and most of the questions regarding precipitation development revolve around the timing of the surface warm front lifting north and the passing of mid level shortwaves. Right now, it looks like the focus is after 2 pm, especially along and south of US 30 associated with a short wave.
After 8 pm EDT the chances drop off before the main warm front lifts north, reinvigorating chances into the 30-50 percent range from 2 am into Friday morning. Otherwise, expect variable cloud cover and highs in the low to mid 80s, with lows falling into the 60s.
Friday the cold front passes through the CWA from west to east. I have likely pops in the morning with the warm front lifting north, then as the cold front drifts eastward focused the highest chances along it. Expect the front to exit the CWA by 00-03z Saturday, with a couple of weak troughs moving in overnight as the main surface low drifts across Lake MI and into Northern Lower/Eastern Upper MI) through 12z Saturday. With regards to intensity on Friday afternoon/evening it looks like the better forcing and instability for severe weather will be just east of our area, with SPC keeping the Day 3 Marginal risk out of our area this issuance. Still something to monitor, but I suspect much is conditional on how the morning evolves with morning convection. Highs will be in the 80s.
The surface and upper level low centered over Michigan will lift northeastward into southern Ontario by Saturday afternoon/evening, with a few trailing shortwaves left behind to contend with. Kept conditions dry for Saturday at the moment, with most models keeping precipitation with these waves further north (just north of our CWA). However, with the shortwave passing during peak heating of the afternoon/evening, wouldn't be surprised to see a few showers and storms pop up east of I 69. Highs will be in the upper 70s.
A ridge of high pressure builds in for Sat night-Sunday, with dry conditions expected until late Sun aft/evening (mainly far west).
Highs will be in the mid 80s. Chances for showers and thunderstorms persist Mon-Wed as an upper level trough and surface system cross the Great Lakes. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s. Lows will be in the 60s.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
A weak cold front will wash out across the area this morning.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible but confidence in timing and coverage remain too low to include in the TAF. Better chance for rain at KSBN will be this morning and models continue to suggest a brief period of MVFR ceilings behind the front. Better chance for rain at KFWA will be during the late afternoon but by then better moisture/instability is shunted to the south and confidence is low that KFWA will see any rain let alone thunder. Will hold KFWA dry for now and re- assess with the 12Z TAF's.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 512 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
-There is a marginal risk for strong to severe storms today between 2 and 8 pm EDT. The best chance will be south of US 24. Damaging winds and heavy rain are the main threats. Highs will be in the 80s, with locations south of US 24 seeing heat indices in the low 90s.
-There are chances for showers and thunderstorms most days into early next week, but especially Thursday night into Friday and then again Tuesday. Highs will be in the 80s. Lows will be in the 60s. Severe weather is not expected at this time.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 511 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
There is a marginal risk for strong to severe storms today for locations south of US 24, especially along/east of I 69. As of this writing we're sitting in the warm sector of a surface low centered over Central Wisconsin, with the warm front extending into Lower Michigan from roughly Ludington to Detroit. Further west in IL/WI is the cold front, slightly slower than anticipated in previous forecasts. Still, light rain and isolated thunderstorms exist out ahead of it thanks to a pre-frontal trough, with lightning/thunder more likely as you head further south where a convective complex in NE Missouri/SW IL is trucking eastward. This complex may end up hogging some of our moisture transport this morning, which will limit pop coverage initially as the trough enters our area. Have roughly 20-30 percent chances this morning, weakening with limited moisture transport and washed out forcing (better west with main front). It's possible we see just sprinkles or light rain showers between 12-17z, then a reinvigoration as the actual cold front moves into the forecast area from 18z-00z. Expect the cold front to be entering our west around 15-18z timeframe, reaching the central CW around 20z and then exiting by around 00z-03z. Expect rain and storm coverage to be pretty isolated-scattered at first, then consolidate and become more numerous as we get into the late afternoon/evening.
It's possible the storms become more organized just south and east of our forecast area, which is why SPC did trim the Slight out of our area, and the marginal back to south of US 24 (mainly east of I 69). That being said, most of the guidance still shows decent destabilization this afternoon (500-1200 J/kg of surface based CAPE...the GFS has 1500-2000 in our marginal risk area), and we have potentially up to 20-30 knots of 0-6 km shear to work with. Still, mid level lapse rates are fairly paltry, so don't expect severe storm coverage to be more than isolated (2-5 pm EDT) to maybe scattered (5-8 pm EDT). Once we lose our daytime heating and the front exits the area, expect mostly dry conditions (save for some low chance pops in the far south where the front could linger a little longer than forecast). Confidence is low in severe weather potential, but if it does occur, expect damaging winds and heavy rain to be the primary threats.
Thursday (Independence Day) is a tricky forecast-and models have struggled with this the past few days bouncing between dry and then chances for showers/storms, likely because there is uncertainty as to how far south the cold front from today will make it before stalling, then if/when/how far it will shift back northward as a warm front Thursday into Thursday night. Much of the guidance has the warm front lifting north into Lower MI (From roughly Holland to Detroit)b by 12-15z Friday morning, and the cold front extending down from Central WI To IL (much like this morning, actually).
Aloft, flow is fairly zonal for Thursday, and most of the questions regarding precipitation development revolve around the timing of the surface warm front lifting north and the passing of mid level shortwaves. Right now, it looks like the focus is after 2 pm, especially along and south of US 30 associated with a short wave.
After 8 pm EDT the chances drop off before the main warm front lifts north, reinvigorating chances into the 30-50 percent range from 2 am into Friday morning. Otherwise, expect variable cloud cover and highs in the low to mid 80s, with lows falling into the 60s.
Friday the cold front passes through the CWA from west to east. I have likely pops in the morning with the warm front lifting north, then as the cold front drifts eastward focused the highest chances along it. Expect the front to exit the CWA by 00-03z Saturday, with a couple of weak troughs moving in overnight as the main surface low drifts across Lake MI and into Northern Lower/Eastern Upper MI) through 12z Saturday. With regards to intensity on Friday afternoon/evening it looks like the better forcing and instability for severe weather will be just east of our area, with SPC keeping the Day 3 Marginal risk out of our area this issuance. Still something to monitor, but I suspect much is conditional on how the morning evolves with morning convection. Highs will be in the 80s.
The surface and upper level low centered over Michigan will lift northeastward into southern Ontario by Saturday afternoon/evening, with a few trailing shortwaves left behind to contend with. Kept conditions dry for Saturday at the moment, with most models keeping precipitation with these waves further north (just north of our CWA). However, with the shortwave passing during peak heating of the afternoon/evening, wouldn't be surprised to see a few showers and storms pop up east of I 69. Highs will be in the upper 70s.
A ridge of high pressure builds in for Sat night-Sunday, with dry conditions expected until late Sun aft/evening (mainly far west).
Highs will be in the mid 80s. Chances for showers and thunderstorms persist Mon-Wed as an upper level trough and surface system cross the Great Lakes. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s. Lows will be in the 60s.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
A weak cold front will wash out across the area this morning.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible but confidence in timing and coverage remain too low to include in the TAF. Better chance for rain at KSBN will be this morning and models continue to suggest a brief period of MVFR ceilings behind the front. Better chance for rain at KFWA will be during the late afternoon but by then better moisture/instability is shunted to the south and confidence is low that KFWA will see any rain let alone thunder. Will hold KFWA dry for now and re- assess with the 12Z TAF's.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
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Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KBEH
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBEH
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBEH
Wind History graph: BEH
(wind in knots)
Northern Indiana, IN,
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