Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rome, PA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
630 AM Update...

Cloud cover was updated to keep the lake effect clouds around a few hours longer in CNY based off of satellite imagery.
Elsewhere it is already starting to break up, especially in the Southern Tier.

240 AM update...

With a cold front through the region early this morning, breezy NW winds have been dropping temperatures into the low 40s and upper 30s. Some thin low stratus is expected to burn off shortly after sunrise with a mostly sunny day expected with the exception of some passing cirrus at times. Very dry air just above the boundary layer will mix down once the clouds clear in the mid morning. Dew points this afternoon were lowered to well below the NBM mean as mixing should drop them to the mid to upper 20s based off of forecast soundings. Most of the area saw at least a quarter inch of rain so fuels will be pretty wet and greenup is really ramping up. While humidities get low this afternoon, fire spread and ignition concerns are low.

Tonight is looking chilly as surface high pressure builds in and winds become calm. There could be some high clouds in place that slows radiational cooling some but most likely temperatures will plummet after sunset. If skies can be completely clear, there is a chance that lows will get close to the afternoon dew point temperature. Upper level ridging building in Thursday will help temperatures recover quickly with highs back above average by the afternoon. Another low pressure system moving into the Great Lakes region increases cloud cover through the day but most rain will hold off until Thursday night.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
300 AM Update...

A shortwave trough south of the Great Lakes with associated surface low centered over the eastern Great Lakes region will bring scattered rain showers to the area Thursday night into Friday. Model soundings show a pretty stable atmosphere, with a few pockets of elevated instability over the Finger Lakes and Mohawk Valley, which could allow a few rumbles of thunder. SW flow will continue to push warm air into the region, with lows Thursday night in the mid 50s to low 60s.

The surface low will continue to lift NE into southern Quebec on Friday. Multiple shortwaves currently look to ripple through the overall trough pattern, which should continue shower chances through the day. SW flow continues, with temps Friday afternoon climbing into the mid 70s to low 80s. Instability does not look as good as it did yesterday, with CAPE values in CNY around 200-600 j/kg, but NEPA currently holds on to CAPE values between 1000-1500j/kg. 0-6km bulk shear values increase to 35-40kts in the afternoon but low and mid level lapse rates are not as steep as one would like for severe weather. Also, CAPE profiles are long and skinny, which should provide updrafts for thunderstorms, but should keep them weak. A wind shift is expected in the afternoon to a more westerly flow, which will act like a pseudo cold front as slightly cooler and drier air moves in from the west. This should help kick off some isolated thunderstorms with gusty winds. If a stronger storm was to develop, the targeted area would be in NEPA during the afternoon hours as this area has the highest CAPE and shear values. SPC currently has parts of our area in General Thunder, which matches up well with the forecast, but we will continue to monitor the area.

More rain showers look to move through the area Friday night as another shortwave slides across the region. Temps will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

On Saturday, the trough axis of the upper level trough that has brought rain and thunder to the area Thursday and Friday will move into the eastern US, tilting from positive to neutral as Saturday progresses. Guidance shows a nice swath of rain showers developing across the Mid-Atlantic into the NE as a surface low develops. Timing and track of the low is still in question as guidance is still sorting out how quickly the upper trough tilts from positive to neutral. Soundings show a little bit of low level instability, but most of the atmosphere is stable so thunder chances are minimal at this time. Temps will vary as a cold front moves through the area during the day.
Areas north of the Southern Tier will see highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, while the Southern Tier will be in the mid 60s and NEPA in the upper 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
330 AM Update...

The long term forecast is quite uncertain as model guidance is showing 2 very different solutions. The GFS and its ensemble has a very strong ridge building across the eastern US with a strong cut off low off the New England coast. This keeps us dry with temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s. The Euro develops a strong cutoff low across the eastern US, which pumps Atlantic moisture into our CWA, bringing continuous rain showers into mid week and highs in the upper 60s. Because of this large difference in solutions, NBM guidance was used with no adjustments made. This puts slight to chance shower chances across the region Sunday through Tuesday.

AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR cigs this morning will scatter out within a few hours of 12Z. RME may hold onto clouds longer if the stratus deck does not dissipate downwind of the Tug Hill. VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the rest of the day. ELM has the potential for fog tonight with good conditions for radiational cooling tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday Night...Restrictions possible with rain showers moving through.

Friday and Saturday...Rain showers likely and a slight chance for thunderstorms with associated restrictions at times.

Sunday...Mainly VFR; low chance for rain showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.