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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rome, PA

June 24, 2024 11:25 PM EDT (03:25 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:27 AM   Sunset 8:45 PM
Moonrise 10:21 PM   Moonset 6:54 AM 
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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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199 FXUS61 KBGM 242330 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 730 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Gusty winds will continue into the early evening before high pressure builds in. Tonight will be cool with temperatures warming back up into the 80s tomorrow but stay mostly dry.
Wednesday has a chance at seeing some some severe thunderstorms once again with best chances in the Southern Tier and south.

725 PM Update...

Updated the wind and wind gust forecast to match current observations. As a low level jet moves out of the area, wind gusts are expected to decrease through the next few hours.
Otherwise, forecast remains on track.

145 PM Update...

Winds have become quite gusty this afternoon as a 850 mb jet passes over head with that wind able to mix down to the surface at times. Most of the area has seen gusts of at least 30 with hill tops getting over 40 mph and even a few locations getting 45 to 48 mph. The 850 mb jet is moving east through the rest of the morning with winds calming down from west to east and with loss of mixing after sunset, the rest of the area will have winds lessen. Tonight with high pressure building in, valley wilds will likely go calm. Fog was added to the grids mainly for the upper susquehanna river tributaries as well as the Mohawk valley as the clouds wont clear until near sunset so there will be more moisture and a lower threshold for fog formation. East of I81, dry air has been mixing in with sunnier skies as well as drier so fog formation will be tough.

Tomorrow warms back up with the trough axis east of the region and ridging builds in. Flow aloft becomes more SW bringing in higher dew points once again. The region is looking to stay dry but some of the models are trying to develop an MCS in the northern plains tonight that tries to propagate through the Great Lakes reaching our area by the afternoon. Confidence is low that will happen as the flow aloft is zonal so any propagating wave should be more west to east rather than dipping south so lowered precipitation chances in the afternoon.
Overnight there is a shortwave digging in so that is when there is better chances as showers and thunderstorms.

320 PM Update...

The next chance for showers and thunderstorms returns Wednesday, mostly during the afternoon evening as a positively tilted trough dropping south of out Canada moves over the Great Lakes region and a surface cold front beings to approach from the west as well. Guidance does show a shortwave moving across the area ahead of these two features that could be the initial catalyst for storms as early as late-morning or early afternoon, but there is uncertainty in its path and timing over the CWA
There is the potential for some locally strong, perhaps even severe, storms this day, however CAPE values do look to be lower than earlier this morning, generally peaking around 1000-1500 J/kg, but the NAM is higher, closer to 2000 J/kg, but we are outside of its wheelhouse. Shear peaks around 40-50 knots and mid-level lapse rates are around 6.5-7.0 degrees C/km. Winds look to turn southwesterly ahead of the upper trough mainly over NE PA into the southern Catskills sending dew points in these areas into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees, and this region is where there is a slight risk out by the SPC. Much of CNY is currently outlooked under a marginal risk, so this day will be closely monitored. High temperatures Wednesday range from the low and mid 80s over CNY to the upper 80s to near 90 degrees over portions of the Twin Tiers, NE PA and southern Catskills.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to be scattered about Wednesday night as the cold front moves through. Low temperatures are expected to range from the mid 50s to the low 60s.

Surface high pressure is then expected to build in from the west promoting dry conditions Thursday through Thursday night.
Northwest winds will set up a cool day for most on Thursday with highs in the low to mid 70s, except for the Wyoming Valley which could still approach 80 degrees. A pretty good radiational cooling night sets up Thursday night under clear skies as lows are expected to fall in the upper 40s and low 50s.

320 PM Update...

High pressure remains in control Friday with highs expected to return to the upper 70s to the low 80s. Another shortwave trough and surface cold front is expected to bring the chance for showers and storms unfortunately for the weekend before drier air pushes back in early next week. Highs Saturday range from the upper 70s to the mid 80s and are expected to cool slightly on Sunday.

VFR conditions expected through the period, with current gusty winds expected to decrease at all terminals by between 04-06Z.
With clouds still over RME for the next hour or so that will clear out, there`s a possibility of some patchy fog to develop overnight with recent rain from today, but confidence was too low to include it in the TAF.


Tuesday afternoon...VFR likely.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night...Restrictions possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...Restrictions from showers and thunderstorms possible.


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