Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Leonardo, NJ
June 5, 2024 7:55 AM EDT (11:55 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:25 AM Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 4:19 AM Moonset 8:00 PM |
ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 702 Am Edt Wed Jun 5 2024
Today - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft this afternoon. Wave detail: se 1 ft at 2 seconds. Patchy fog this morning. Slight chance of showers and tstms late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this morning. Some localized reductions in visibility to less than 1 nm this morning.
Tonight - S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Wave detail: se 1 ft at 2 seconds. Slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then showers and slight chance of tstms after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers and chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 2 seconds. Showers and chance of tstms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Fri - W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Wave detail: W 1 ft at 2 seconds.
Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Sun night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 702 Am Edt Wed Jun 5 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure moves farther out into the atlantic today as a warm front approaches the waters. This warm front moves in tonight and then eventually northeast of the waters along with associated cold front and low pressure on Friday. A broad area of low pressure meanders nearby over southeast canada this weekend and into early next week.
Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 051046 AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 646 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
An area of low pressure approaches from the northwest late today with a warm front moving through the region this evening. A cold front follows tomorrow crossing through the region on Thursday into Thursday night. Heading into the weekend unsettled weather looks to persist into early next week as several shortwaves pivot around the upper low over southern Canada.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 6:45am...Satellite imagery this morning shows that the low marine stratus has engulfed much of the region along with areas of shallow fog and mist. Fog and low stratus should begin to lift and mix out by mid-late morning which will give way to mostly cloudy skies by mid-day.
Unfortunately, the pleasant stretch of weather we encountered early in the week is beyond us. A warm front will be situated to our south and west this afternoon which will eventually begin to make some progress north across our area this evening. The warm front should completely lift north of our area by Thursday morning. The front will be accompanied by some shortwave energy aloft which will increase the forcing of ascent across the region. As a result, an initial batch of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and approach from the southwest and overspread the rest of the region this evening. For most of the overnight period, light to moderate rain (with embedded thunder) is expected, giving way to just some spotty showers/storms by early Thursday morning as depicted by most of the hi-res guidance.
Although mostly cloudy to overcast skies will encompass much of the region today, a very moist airmass will be in place. Thus, there is a fairly high chance for some thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. Despite limited surface heating, a narrow corridor of SBCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg this afternoon will be in place across the Delmarva which will lie in close proximity to the warm front.
However, mid-level lapse rates are weak (only near 6.5C/km) which will likely hinder development of strong updrafts. As a result, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the Eastern Shore of Maryland into a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for severe weather today. The rest of the area lies in just a general thunderstorm risk. The main threat in the highlighted area will be damaging winds. With backed SE surface winds near the warm front, model soundings due show some curved hodographs in the lowest 0-3km. So while there is a non-zero chance of a tornado, the greater potential looks to lie outside of our area.
PWATs will also be near/in excess of 2.0 inches later this afternoon into tonight, so heavy downpours are likely, especially in any thunderstorm that occurs. Currently, WPC has the western half of our forecast area highlighted within a Marginal Risk (Level 1/4) risk for excessive rainfall. However, flash flooding does not appear to be a threat as ground soils are relatively dry and the storm motion is quite quick. QPF values through tonight are forecast to be around 0.5-1.0 inches, locally higher in thunderstorms.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A deep upper trough will be accompanied by a nearly vertically stacked low pressure system which will be meandering around southern Canada and the northern Great Lakes during the period.
This will bring a cold front through by Thursday into Thursday evening.
Guidance continues to highlight the likelihood of a concentrated set of showers and thunderstorms moving through the region Thursday afternoon into the evening. CSU-MLP guidance still indicates a 5-14% chance of severe weather on Thursday with the most likely threat being hazardous wind. Showers and thunderstorms will cease on Thursday night as the cold front moves offshore.
Highs will be in low/mid 80s on Thursday dependent on the amount of clearing. Thursday night lows will be cooler in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The long term period is forecast to be generally unsettled through early next week. The aforementioned upper trough and low will meander across southern Canada and the northern Great Lakes through the weekend. As it does so, multiple shortwaves will round through the upper trough resulting in several rounds of showers and occasional thunderstorms through the weekend into next week. While no singular day appears to be a washout, there will be quite a bit of showers around, more likely north and west with drier conditions south and east. The highest probability of precipitation will be during the afternoon hours as diurnal heating allows instability to be maximized.
Temperatures during this period will remain quite seasonable for early June with a mix of 70s/80s during the day and 50s/60s at night.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Today...LIFR/IFR/MVFR CIGs should lift to VFR at all terminals by 15-16Z. Another round of lowering CIGs down to MVFR are expected later in the day as rain showers and isolated thunderstorms move into the region. South-southeast winds around 5-10 kt. Moderate confidence.
Tonight...All terminals should encounter lowering CIGs and decreasing VSBYs as heavier rain moves in this evening. Heaviest of rain should continue through about 06-08Z, before lifting north and east of the region. Still anticipate lower CIGs /VSBYs to persist after rain exits. South-southwest winds around 5-10 kt. Low confidence.
Outlook...
Thursday through Thursday night...Sub-VFR conditions probable with showers and thunderstorms.
Friday through Saturday...Primarily VFR expected with sub-VFR conditions possible. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm each afternoon.
MARINE
No marine headlines are expected through tonight. Fair weather this morning will give way to showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon into tonight. South-southeast winds around 10-15 kt today increasing up to 15-20 kt tonight. Localize higher gusts up to 22-23 kt possible. Seas of 2-3 feet increasing to 3-4 feet.
Outlook...
Thursday and Thursday night...Sub SCA expected, however winds may gust around 20+ kt on Wednesday night into Thursday. Seas around 3-4 feet. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Thursday night through Saturday...No marine headlines expected.
Winds generally around 10-15 kt with seas of 2-4 feet. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm each afternoon.
Rip Currents...
A LOW risk for the development of rip currents is in place for both New Jersey and Delaware beaches for today. Winds will be on onshore from the SSE, but only around 10-15 mph with 1-2 foot waves and a 9 second period.
For Thursday, SSW winds around 10-15 mph will parallel the shoreline for NJ and offshore for DE beaches. With breaking waves of 2-3 feet, a medium period swell, and a new moon, the risk for rip current development is MODERATE for New Jersey beaches and LOW for Delaware beaches.
Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers. Utilize any guarded beaches if venturing out into the water. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
With sustained onshore flow expected through at least Wednesday and the approaching New Moon on Thursday, there will likely be some tidal flooding for much of our coastal region.
For today and tomorrow, the threat for widespread minor flooding looks to increase as winds strengthen then turn and become shore parallel on Thursday, potentially trapping water along the coast. Recommend to continue to monitor upcoming high tides and make adjustments to the forecast accordingly.
Overall, the threat for tidal flooding appears to be lower along the Chesapeake Bay than elsewhere in the region but by the early morning high tide Thursday, water levels may also approach spotty minor.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 646 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
An area of low pressure approaches from the northwest late today with a warm front moving through the region this evening. A cold front follows tomorrow crossing through the region on Thursday into Thursday night. Heading into the weekend unsettled weather looks to persist into early next week as several shortwaves pivot around the upper low over southern Canada.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 6:45am...Satellite imagery this morning shows that the low marine stratus has engulfed much of the region along with areas of shallow fog and mist. Fog and low stratus should begin to lift and mix out by mid-late morning which will give way to mostly cloudy skies by mid-day.
Unfortunately, the pleasant stretch of weather we encountered early in the week is beyond us. A warm front will be situated to our south and west this afternoon which will eventually begin to make some progress north across our area this evening. The warm front should completely lift north of our area by Thursday morning. The front will be accompanied by some shortwave energy aloft which will increase the forcing of ascent across the region. As a result, an initial batch of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and approach from the southwest and overspread the rest of the region this evening. For most of the overnight period, light to moderate rain (with embedded thunder) is expected, giving way to just some spotty showers/storms by early Thursday morning as depicted by most of the hi-res guidance.
Although mostly cloudy to overcast skies will encompass much of the region today, a very moist airmass will be in place. Thus, there is a fairly high chance for some thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. Despite limited surface heating, a narrow corridor of SBCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg this afternoon will be in place across the Delmarva which will lie in close proximity to the warm front.
However, mid-level lapse rates are weak (only near 6.5C/km) which will likely hinder development of strong updrafts. As a result, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the Eastern Shore of Maryland into a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for severe weather today. The rest of the area lies in just a general thunderstorm risk. The main threat in the highlighted area will be damaging winds. With backed SE surface winds near the warm front, model soundings due show some curved hodographs in the lowest 0-3km. So while there is a non-zero chance of a tornado, the greater potential looks to lie outside of our area.
PWATs will also be near/in excess of 2.0 inches later this afternoon into tonight, so heavy downpours are likely, especially in any thunderstorm that occurs. Currently, WPC has the western half of our forecast area highlighted within a Marginal Risk (Level 1/4) risk for excessive rainfall. However, flash flooding does not appear to be a threat as ground soils are relatively dry and the storm motion is quite quick. QPF values through tonight are forecast to be around 0.5-1.0 inches, locally higher in thunderstorms.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A deep upper trough will be accompanied by a nearly vertically stacked low pressure system which will be meandering around southern Canada and the northern Great Lakes during the period.
This will bring a cold front through by Thursday into Thursday evening.
Guidance continues to highlight the likelihood of a concentrated set of showers and thunderstorms moving through the region Thursday afternoon into the evening. CSU-MLP guidance still indicates a 5-14% chance of severe weather on Thursday with the most likely threat being hazardous wind. Showers and thunderstorms will cease on Thursday night as the cold front moves offshore.
Highs will be in low/mid 80s on Thursday dependent on the amount of clearing. Thursday night lows will be cooler in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The long term period is forecast to be generally unsettled through early next week. The aforementioned upper trough and low will meander across southern Canada and the northern Great Lakes through the weekend. As it does so, multiple shortwaves will round through the upper trough resulting in several rounds of showers and occasional thunderstorms through the weekend into next week. While no singular day appears to be a washout, there will be quite a bit of showers around, more likely north and west with drier conditions south and east. The highest probability of precipitation will be during the afternoon hours as diurnal heating allows instability to be maximized.
Temperatures during this period will remain quite seasonable for early June with a mix of 70s/80s during the day and 50s/60s at night.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Today...LIFR/IFR/MVFR CIGs should lift to VFR at all terminals by 15-16Z. Another round of lowering CIGs down to MVFR are expected later in the day as rain showers and isolated thunderstorms move into the region. South-southeast winds around 5-10 kt. Moderate confidence.
Tonight...All terminals should encounter lowering CIGs and decreasing VSBYs as heavier rain moves in this evening. Heaviest of rain should continue through about 06-08Z, before lifting north and east of the region. Still anticipate lower CIGs /VSBYs to persist after rain exits. South-southwest winds around 5-10 kt. Low confidence.
Outlook...
Thursday through Thursday night...Sub-VFR conditions probable with showers and thunderstorms.
Friday through Saturday...Primarily VFR expected with sub-VFR conditions possible. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm each afternoon.
MARINE
No marine headlines are expected through tonight. Fair weather this morning will give way to showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon into tonight. South-southeast winds around 10-15 kt today increasing up to 15-20 kt tonight. Localize higher gusts up to 22-23 kt possible. Seas of 2-3 feet increasing to 3-4 feet.
Outlook...
Thursday and Thursday night...Sub SCA expected, however winds may gust around 20+ kt on Wednesday night into Thursday. Seas around 3-4 feet. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Thursday night through Saturday...No marine headlines expected.
Winds generally around 10-15 kt with seas of 2-4 feet. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm each afternoon.
Rip Currents...
A LOW risk for the development of rip currents is in place for both New Jersey and Delaware beaches for today. Winds will be on onshore from the SSE, but only around 10-15 mph with 1-2 foot waves and a 9 second period.
For Thursday, SSW winds around 10-15 mph will parallel the shoreline for NJ and offshore for DE beaches. With breaking waves of 2-3 feet, a medium period swell, and a new moon, the risk for rip current development is MODERATE for New Jersey beaches and LOW for Delaware beaches.
Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers. Utilize any guarded beaches if venturing out into the water. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
With sustained onshore flow expected through at least Wednesday and the approaching New Moon on Thursday, there will likely be some tidal flooding for much of our coastal region.
For today and tomorrow, the threat for widespread minor flooding looks to increase as winds strengthen then turn and become shore parallel on Thursday, potentially trapping water along the coast. Recommend to continue to monitor upcoming high tides and make adjustments to the forecast accordingly.
Overall, the threat for tidal flooding appears to be lower along the Chesapeake Bay than elsewhere in the region but by the early morning high tide Thursday, water levels may also approach spotty minor.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ | 4 mi | 56 min | SE 4.1G | 66°F | 67°F | 29.98 | ||
| ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ | 16 mi | 56 min | SE 1.9G | 64°F | 29.97 | |||
| MHRN6 | 17 mi | 56 min | ESE 2.9G | |||||
| 44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor | 18 mi | 46 min | SSE 5.8G | 66°F | 66°F | 29.97 | 66°F | |
| BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY | 19 mi | 56 min | 64°F | 64°F | 29.92 | |||
| KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY | 31 mi | 56 min | S 7G | 65°F | 62°F | 29.98 | ||
| 44022 - Execution Rocks | 36 mi | 41 min | 0 | 64°F | 29.96 | 63°F | ||
| NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA | 43 mi | 56 min | E 2.9G | 65°F | 74°F | 29.97 | ||
| 44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY | 47 mi | 36 min | SSE 5.8G | 66°F | 67°F | 2 ft | 29.98 | 66°F |
| 44091 | 47 mi | 60 min | 67°F | 2 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBLM MONMOUTH EXECUTIVE,NJ | 16 sm | 40 min | E 05 | 3 sm | Overcast | Mist | 66°F | 66°F | 100% | 29.98 |
| KLDJ LINDEN,NJ | 17 sm | 60 min | calm | 5 sm | Overcast | Mist | 64°F | 63°F | 94% | 29.98 |
| KJRB DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN/WALL ST,NY | 19 sm | 22 min | calm | 6 sm | Overcast | Mist | 66°F | 63°F | 88% | 29.98 |
| KEWR NEWARK LIBERTY INTL,NJ | 20 sm | 64 min | calm | 3 sm | Mostly Cloudy | Mist | 66°F | 64°F | 94% | 29.97 |
| KJFK JOHN F KENNEDY INTL,NY | 21 sm | 64 min | SSW 05 | 8 sm | Overcast | 66°F | 64°F | 94% | 29.98 |
Atlantic Highlands
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:31 AM EDT -0.28 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:19 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 05:26 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:23 AM EDT 4.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:26 PM EDT -0.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:42 PM EDT 6.25 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:59 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 08:23 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:31 AM EDT -0.28 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:19 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 05:26 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:23 AM EDT 4.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:26 PM EDT -0.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:42 PM EDT 6.25 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:59 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 08:23 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Atlantic Highlands, New Jersey, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.6 |
| 1 am |
| -0.2 |
| 2 am |
| -0.2 |
| 3 am |
| 0.6 |
| 4 am |
| 1.8 |
| 5 am |
| 3.1 |
| 6 am |
| 4.2 |
| 7 am |
| 4.9 |
| 8 am |
| 4.8 |
| 9 am |
| 4 |
| 10 am |
| 2.8 |
| 11 am |
| 1.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 5.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 6 |
| 8 pm |
| 6.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 5.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 4.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 3 |
The Narrows
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:25 AM EDT -2.37 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:10 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:18 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 05:25 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:39 AM EDT 1.64 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:18 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:33 PM EDT -2.14 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:00 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:53 PM EDT 2.36 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:00 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 08:23 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 10:01 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:25 AM EDT -2.37 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:10 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:18 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 05:25 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:39 AM EDT 1.64 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:18 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:33 PM EDT -2.14 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:00 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:53 PM EDT 2.36 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:00 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 08:23 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 10:01 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current (2), knots
| 12 am |
| -2.3 |
| 1 am |
| -2.3 |
| 2 am |
| -1.9 |
| 3 am |
| -1.2 |
| 4 am |
| -0.2 |
| 5 am |
| 0.9 |
| 6 am |
| 1.5 |
| 7 am |
| 1.6 |
| 8 am |
| 1.2 |
| 9 am |
| 0.3 |
| 10 am |
| -0.8 |
| 11 am |
| -1.6 |
| 12 pm |
| -2.1 |
| 1 pm |
| -2.1 |
| 2 pm |
| -1.6 |
| 3 pm |
| -1 |
| 4 pm |
| -0 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 0 |
| 11 pm |
| -1.1 |
Philadelphia, PA,
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