NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Scattered showers and a few tstms have developed overnight and are generally tracking NE across SE PA and southern NJ. A few cells are also across northern Delaware too. These rains are probably being triggered by weak shortwave energy across the area and the hot and humid airmass in place.

Today, the more humid airmass will be across the SE areas while some drier air remain to the NW. There are several boundaries in place and a sea-breeze will develop too. Most of the CAM models are showing some scattered shower/tstms activity today, especially for Delmarva and Srn NJ. We'll keep low chance or slight chc pops for these areas today and a dry fcst for the southern Poconos and north NJ. It'll be another hot day, but not as much as the past few days and overall the humidity will be a tick lower. Consequently, we will not have any heat related flags for today. Highest apparent temperatures will be in the upper 90s. It would still be advised to take it easy if you will be working/playing outside in the sun.

The convective activity will diminish later this evening and the later part of the night should be dry. Patchy fog will develop, especially in areas that receive rains today. Lows will remain very mild with mostly low/mid 70s expected. Light winds overnight.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The hot and humid conditions continue, with increasing chances for storms on Tuesday.

The dominant feature in this period is expected to be the broad ridge situated to our east in the low, mid and high levels of the atmosphere. Consequently, we'll keep southerly flow resulting in continued very warm conditions. How humid it will be though, is far more uncertain. Some guidance suggests that the surface dew points though mix down more Monday afternoon, and if this occurs then the peak heat indices would tend to stay below advisory criteria for the entire area. By Tuesday, humidity may be on the increase, but so too is cloud cover, which could be the limiting factor for heat index values.

As for storm chances, a mid level short wave ridge on the back side of the main high should be in place over our region which will likely limit any storm development through the day. By Tuesday, the ridge will be out of our region, with mostly zonal mid and upper level flow. While there won't be much mid and upper level forcing, there should be enough low level convergence along the frontal boundary in our region for scattered storm development.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Summary...Thunderstorm chances remain in place through the end of the week as the pesky front remains very close to our region.
The remnant low of Beryl is currently forecast to remain northwest of our region through this period, though moisture associated with the system, could move into our region.

Wedensday and Thursday...As mentioned above, most guidance is depicting the remnant low of Beryl to lift into the Great Lakes region. It should be noted however, this is one of the first model cycles where there is relatively good agreement on the track of the remnant low, so will have to watch the trends closely to see if this continues. Even if the center of the low stays well away from us, moisture advection on the eastern side, interacting with the front moving into our region means increasing chances for showers and storms across our region.
Given that the best upper level forcing will stay northwest of our region, not sure storm coverage will be widespread yet.

Friday and Saturday...a trailing mid level short wave trough is depicted in most deterministic models as approaching our region through this time. This will lead to another chance for showers and storms across the region, especially if the front on Thursday stalls over our region, providing a focus for low level convergence.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

THRU DAWN
Largely VFR, but there is a possibility of some MVFR CIGS or VSBYS (fog) developing at KMIV, KACY. A couple showers may pass between the KRDG/KABE areas and the Delaware Valley terminals thru 09Z. Patchy rural fog possible. Light winds. Medium confid.

TODAY
VFR expected but scattered showers/tstms may affect KMIV/KACY this afternoon. MVFR/IFR for a short period possible with any TSTM. Low confid in SHRA/TSRA occurrence. NE/N winds this morning then S/SE winds developing. Overall Low/medium confid.

TONIGHT
VFR expected. Could be some fog for KMIV/KACY. This may be included in 12Z TAF is confid is high enough. Light winds.
Medium confid.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR with no significant weather expected.

Tuesday through Thursday...periods of MVFR or lower conditions possible with any thunderstorms.

MARINE
Weak low pressure remain across NJ this morning. Overall, weak flow aloft will keep rather tranquil conditions across the waters today and tonight. Winds will favor S/SW but will turn onshore this afternoon. There will be scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developing today which will carry into the early evening. Locally higher winds and seas in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Monday: Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria. However, some thunderstorms especially each afternoon and evening could produce locally gusty winds.

Thursday: Seas on the ocean waters could be near or above 5 ft through the later half of the day. Additionally, there is another chance for storms producing locally gusty winds.

Rip Currents...

Today, winds will be rather light and mostly onshore. Speeds will be less than 10 knots much of the day. Gentle seas with these winds will favor a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at the Jersey Shore and for Delaware.

LOW risk is also expected for Monday.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ008>010-012>015-017>020-026-027.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.