Sunrise 5:09 AM   Sunset 8:32 PM Moonrise 2:22 AM   Moonset 2:56 PM

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FXUS61 KBTV 010731 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 331 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warming trend is expected through the weekend into early next week with many places warming into the 80s each day. Dry weather is also expected to continue with high pressure expected to remain entrenched across the region. As it stands, the next chances for any appreciable rainfall aren't until Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 318 AM EDT Saturday...Another beautiful day is on tap for the North Country with plentiful sunshine and seasonal temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Dewpoints this afternoon are expected to tank as we mix to around 6000 ft. A plethora of dry air aloft is expected to lower dewpoints into the 30s which will make it feel very pleasant outside given the lack of humidity. In addition to dry air mixing down to the surface, we will see gusty northwest winds up to 25 mph during the afternoon as well. Moisture will begin to return to the region tonight in the form of clouds which should help moderate temperatures a bit and keep them warmer than the previous few nights. The warming trend is expected to continue into Sunday with most locations warming into the 80s. Again, dewpoints are expected to tank in the afternoon with plenty of dry air aloft mixing down to the surface. Although it'll be warm, the lower humidity values should make it feel quite comfortable outside.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 318 AM EDT Saturday...North Country Chamber of Commerce weather continues for the short term fcst with continued mostly dry conditions and comfortable temps. Cannot completely rule out a very isolated <5% coverage of a shower on Monday aftn over the higher trrn associated with llvl east/northeast flow. However, forcing/moisture is minimal and instability parameters show <350 J/kg of sfc based CAPE. Progged 925mb temps near 20C, adding at least 10C, given dry air and decent mixing supports highs well into the 80s most locations. However, humidity values remain in the comfortable range as drier air aloft mixes toward the sfc during the aftn hours. Based on dry air and lingering sfc high pres, did trim lows at SLK/NEK by several degrees with values mid 40s to near 60F for Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 318 AM EDT Saturday...Large scale pattern amplification occurs for midweek with an omega type structure to the mid/upper lvl height fields. Initially we are in the sweet spot for continued dry conditions with comfortable temps for Tues into Weds. Highs generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s for midweek, supported by progged 925mb temps in the 19-21C range. Meanwhile, lows should drop back into the 50s to lower 60s with comfortable humidity values.

The long term challenge is timing large scale pattern change toward the end of the week into next weekend and potential for prolonged period of unsettled wx to develop with cooler temps.
Guidance has been struggling with development of deep/closed cyclonic circulation over the northern Plains and how quickly east this system tracks for late week. Latest trends have been for a slower arrival to height falls and potential precip with greatest probability of measurable precip arriving late Thurs into Friday. Ensemble data continues to support a rather large spread in potential solutions, so for now have cut back on likely pops offered by the NBM and have chc wording, which wl increase once timing becomes clearer. In addition, as mid/upper lvl trof develops toward next weekend, cooler air at all levels develops, along with more clouds results in cooler daytime high temps, but overnight lows remain on the milder side. Highs mostly in the 70s with lows upper 50s to mid 60s for late next week, with pops in the 30-45% range.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Light and variable winds this morning will become steady from the northwest after sunrise before becoming gusty in the afternoon. Wind gusts in the 20-25 knot range are expected between 15Z and 23Z with winds becoming light and variable thereafter.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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