Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Woodstock, IL
July 3, 2024 4:16 AM CDT (09:16 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:20 AM Sunset 8:35 PM Moonrise 2:48 AM Moonset 7:04 PM |
LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island Il- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor Il- 320 Am Cdt Wed Jul 3 2024
Today - Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast around 5 kt this afternoon. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight - Light and variable winds. Becoming mostly cloudy. Waves nearly calm.
Thursday - Light winds becoming east 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thursday night - East winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southeast. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
LMZ700
No data
No data
FXUS63 KLOT 030819 AFDLOT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 319 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A few showers north of I-80 this morning, then some chance for showers/storms near/south of Hwy 24 late tonight Thursday, otherwise mostly dry today through the 4th
- Cold front brings showers and thunderstorms through the area late Thursday night into Friday.
- Mostly dry conditions for the weekend, but increasing shower and storm chances late Sunday into Monday.
- Seasonable temperatures into next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 319 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Through Thursday:
All that's left of the earlier MCS is a shrinking area of some light rain falling from the remaining orphaned anvil shield.
Anticipate this area of rain to completely dissipate well before sunrise.
The surface cold front is lurking upstream with a ribbon of deeper moisture pooling along and just ahead of the front, which stretches from near Green Bay to eastern Iowa as of 08z.
Objective analysis does show several hundred J/kg of weakly to uncapped MLCAPE ahead of the front and coincident with the low level moist axis. Over the past hour or so, there has been a narrow band of relatively weak convection developing along the front.
Short range guidance does show that narrow moist axis spreading eastward ahead of the encroaching cold front this morning, which should allow for a continuation of that band of scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm as the front moves across the CWA This activity should pass Rockford by sunrise and through much of the Chicago metro area by mid-late morning.
The front is expected to continue settling southward today with the best chance of renewed shower and thunderstorm development likely setting up south of our CWA later this afternoon. Opted to hang onto a small shower chance this afternoon for Benton County and adjacent portions of nearby counties, but character of the afternoon looks dry.
A modest low level jet is progged to develop over the eastern Great Plains into the lower Missouri Valley tonight and could support some elevated convection developing over Missouri. This activity will probably remain south of our CWA, but could be close enough to justify carry some small chance pops south of Highway 24 overnight tonight.
Thursday, a vigorous shortwave trough is progged to dig southeast into the central Plains. Guidance is in surprisingly good agreement in really not showing much northward surge of the deeper moisture and more unstable air in advance of this shortwave. Ultimately, during the day Thursday, there appears to be little to no synoptic forcing to support showers or storms.
Was very tempted to remove mentionable precip chances from the forecast altogether, but the stalwart ECMWF continues break out some convection in the afternoon, particularly south of I-80.
Opted to lower pops to slight chance over most of the CWA, maintaining some low end chance pops near and south of the Highway 24 corridor, in closer proximity to the deeper moisture and greater instability.
Weak lake breeze this afternoon should provide a bit of cooling right at the beaches this afternoon. Elsewhere, highs should climb into the mid-upper 80s, with relatively comfortable humidity levels (dewpoints mostly in the low-mid 60s). Light synoptic easterly flow Thursday will allow for a more formidable lake breeze to spread inland Thursday afternoon, with footprint of lake cooling Thursday afternoon expected to be larger.
Outside of the lake cooling, highs will once again climb into the mid 80s.
- Izzi
Thursday Night through Tuesday:
An upper trough is expected to be digging across the Upper Mississippi Valley as a surface low develops over northern IA and southern MN Thursday evening. As the trough and associated low pivot into the northern Great Lakes Thursday night, a cold front will get forced across northern IL and eventually northwest IN late Thursday night into the day on Friday. Ahead of this front a warm and humid air mass will be in place across the region which should maintain at least some modest instability overnight Thursday night. Therefore, showers and thunderstorms should develop along the front in IA and spread into our CWA as the boundary traverses our area. While the threat for any severe weather with the front continues to look low, guidance is depicting a 50-55 kt 500 mb wind max overhead which should generate at least 30-40 kts of effective shear for storms to work with. Given the aforementioned instability I suspect most storms will struggle to grow upscale enough to be strong to severe, but this may be something we have to monitor as we get closer. That said, the continued signal for a late arrival of the aforementioned front, likely after midnight for many locations; should yield a mostly dry July 4th evening for any outdoor activities and firework shows.
The cold front will continue to progress across the area Friday morning with shower and thunderstorms gradually diminishing from west to east Friday afternoon. However, guidance has started to show the upper trough developing into an upper low and stalling over the Great Lakes Friday evening. If this does occur as forecast, then the residual moisture behind the front may be sufficient to redevelop some showers and/or storms late Friday afternoon and evening mainly near the IL-WI line. Despite the lingering precipitation potential, temperatures should still warm into the lower 80s for most of the area but some slightly cooler readings are possible near the IL-WI line if showers materialize. Additionally, winds on Friday look to be rather breezy in the wake of the front with westerly gusts in the 20-30 mph range possible.
Heading into the weekend, the upper trough/low is forecast to move into the eastern Great Lakes Friday night which looks to allow a surface high to build overhead on Saturday. Most guidance members keep this high in place through the entirety of the weekend which should promote rain-free conditions for any outdoor plans. While some guidance does hint at a shortwave trough digging into the Mississippi Valley on Sunday, it appears that any resultant showers/storms in our area may hold off until Sunday night. Given that this period is at the tail end of day 5, no changes were made to the 20 to 40 percent POPs offered by the NBM. However, I still think these are overdone given the mid-level dry air forecast and may need to get lowered with future forecasts. Otherwise, expect seasonable temperatures to remain throughout the weekend with readings in the low to mid-80s each afternoon.
Looking ahead into next week, guidance appears to get into better agreement on a broad trough settling somewhere in the vicinity of the Great Lakes which would support periodic shower and storm chances. While it is obviously too soon to know specifics on timing and coverage, the NBM did offer some 20 to 30 POPs which seem reasonable at this range. Furthermore, if this pattern does materialize as guidance suggests then we may also see temperatures favoring readings near or possibly just below normal for this point in July.
Yack
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Forecast concerns for the terminals...
- Showers and occasional thunderstorms to persist through the night
- Lowering ceilings overnight as showers end with MVFR conditions expected but pockets of IFR possible
- Ceilings improve Wednesday morning with VFR conditions through the rest of the period
An area of showers continues to pivot across northern IL this evening as a cold front progresses over northern IA towards IL and eventually IN. While there was some thunderstorms within the area of showers earlier, the waning instability this evening has allowed that threat to diminish and therefore felt confident enough to remove formal TS from the TAFs. However, there is a narrow plume of instability west-central IL that could pool ahead of the front which may allow for a brief period of more robust showers and/or thunderstorms towards daybreak.
Though, confidence on this new development occurring remains too low for a formal mention at this time. Regardless, showers should gradually taper from northwest to southeast after 09z leaving dry conditions for Wednesday.
Ceilings will gradually lower in the wake of the showers overnight allowing MVFR ceilings to develop over the terminals.
Though, there have been some pockets of IFR and even LIFR ceilings across IA where higher moisture has been present. The general thinking is that these IFR/LIFR ceilings should lift to the MVFR category as they move into northern IL, but cannot completely rule out a brief period of IFR conditions especially at RFD. The lower ceilings are expected to persist into Wednesday morning before scattering out between 15z-16z with VFR conditions expected from that point forward.
Otherwise, expect south-southwest winds tonight to gradually become westerly and eventually more northwesterly behind the front Wednesday morning. Wind speeds may remain breezy at times with any showers, but should generally remain in the 8-10 kt range through Wednesday afternoon.
Yack
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 319 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A few showers north of I-80 this morning, then some chance for showers/storms near/south of Hwy 24 late tonight Thursday, otherwise mostly dry today through the 4th
- Cold front brings showers and thunderstorms through the area late Thursday night into Friday.
- Mostly dry conditions for the weekend, but increasing shower and storm chances late Sunday into Monday.
- Seasonable temperatures into next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 319 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Through Thursday:
All that's left of the earlier MCS is a shrinking area of some light rain falling from the remaining orphaned anvil shield.
Anticipate this area of rain to completely dissipate well before sunrise.
The surface cold front is lurking upstream with a ribbon of deeper moisture pooling along and just ahead of the front, which stretches from near Green Bay to eastern Iowa as of 08z.
Objective analysis does show several hundred J/kg of weakly to uncapped MLCAPE ahead of the front and coincident with the low level moist axis. Over the past hour or so, there has been a narrow band of relatively weak convection developing along the front.
Short range guidance does show that narrow moist axis spreading eastward ahead of the encroaching cold front this morning, which should allow for a continuation of that band of scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm as the front moves across the CWA This activity should pass Rockford by sunrise and through much of the Chicago metro area by mid-late morning.
The front is expected to continue settling southward today with the best chance of renewed shower and thunderstorm development likely setting up south of our CWA later this afternoon. Opted to hang onto a small shower chance this afternoon for Benton County and adjacent portions of nearby counties, but character of the afternoon looks dry.
A modest low level jet is progged to develop over the eastern Great Plains into the lower Missouri Valley tonight and could support some elevated convection developing over Missouri. This activity will probably remain south of our CWA, but could be close enough to justify carry some small chance pops south of Highway 24 overnight tonight.
Thursday, a vigorous shortwave trough is progged to dig southeast into the central Plains. Guidance is in surprisingly good agreement in really not showing much northward surge of the deeper moisture and more unstable air in advance of this shortwave. Ultimately, during the day Thursday, there appears to be little to no synoptic forcing to support showers or storms.
Was very tempted to remove mentionable precip chances from the forecast altogether, but the stalwart ECMWF continues break out some convection in the afternoon, particularly south of I-80.
Opted to lower pops to slight chance over most of the CWA, maintaining some low end chance pops near and south of the Highway 24 corridor, in closer proximity to the deeper moisture and greater instability.
Weak lake breeze this afternoon should provide a bit of cooling right at the beaches this afternoon. Elsewhere, highs should climb into the mid-upper 80s, with relatively comfortable humidity levels (dewpoints mostly in the low-mid 60s). Light synoptic easterly flow Thursday will allow for a more formidable lake breeze to spread inland Thursday afternoon, with footprint of lake cooling Thursday afternoon expected to be larger.
Outside of the lake cooling, highs will once again climb into the mid 80s.
- Izzi
Thursday Night through Tuesday:
An upper trough is expected to be digging across the Upper Mississippi Valley as a surface low develops over northern IA and southern MN Thursday evening. As the trough and associated low pivot into the northern Great Lakes Thursday night, a cold front will get forced across northern IL and eventually northwest IN late Thursday night into the day on Friday. Ahead of this front a warm and humid air mass will be in place across the region which should maintain at least some modest instability overnight Thursday night. Therefore, showers and thunderstorms should develop along the front in IA and spread into our CWA as the boundary traverses our area. While the threat for any severe weather with the front continues to look low, guidance is depicting a 50-55 kt 500 mb wind max overhead which should generate at least 30-40 kts of effective shear for storms to work with. Given the aforementioned instability I suspect most storms will struggle to grow upscale enough to be strong to severe, but this may be something we have to monitor as we get closer. That said, the continued signal for a late arrival of the aforementioned front, likely after midnight for many locations; should yield a mostly dry July 4th evening for any outdoor activities and firework shows.
The cold front will continue to progress across the area Friday morning with shower and thunderstorms gradually diminishing from west to east Friday afternoon. However, guidance has started to show the upper trough developing into an upper low and stalling over the Great Lakes Friday evening. If this does occur as forecast, then the residual moisture behind the front may be sufficient to redevelop some showers and/or storms late Friday afternoon and evening mainly near the IL-WI line. Despite the lingering precipitation potential, temperatures should still warm into the lower 80s for most of the area but some slightly cooler readings are possible near the IL-WI line if showers materialize. Additionally, winds on Friday look to be rather breezy in the wake of the front with westerly gusts in the 20-30 mph range possible.
Heading into the weekend, the upper trough/low is forecast to move into the eastern Great Lakes Friday night which looks to allow a surface high to build overhead on Saturday. Most guidance members keep this high in place through the entirety of the weekend which should promote rain-free conditions for any outdoor plans. While some guidance does hint at a shortwave trough digging into the Mississippi Valley on Sunday, it appears that any resultant showers/storms in our area may hold off until Sunday night. Given that this period is at the tail end of day 5, no changes were made to the 20 to 40 percent POPs offered by the NBM. However, I still think these are overdone given the mid-level dry air forecast and may need to get lowered with future forecasts. Otherwise, expect seasonable temperatures to remain throughout the weekend with readings in the low to mid-80s each afternoon.
Looking ahead into next week, guidance appears to get into better agreement on a broad trough settling somewhere in the vicinity of the Great Lakes which would support periodic shower and storm chances. While it is obviously too soon to know specifics on timing and coverage, the NBM did offer some 20 to 30 POPs which seem reasonable at this range. Furthermore, if this pattern does materialize as guidance suggests then we may also see temperatures favoring readings near or possibly just below normal for this point in July.
Yack
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Forecast concerns for the terminals...
- Showers and occasional thunderstorms to persist through the night
- Lowering ceilings overnight as showers end with MVFR conditions expected but pockets of IFR possible
- Ceilings improve Wednesday morning with VFR conditions through the rest of the period
An area of showers continues to pivot across northern IL this evening as a cold front progresses over northern IA towards IL and eventually IN. While there was some thunderstorms within the area of showers earlier, the waning instability this evening has allowed that threat to diminish and therefore felt confident enough to remove formal TS from the TAFs. However, there is a narrow plume of instability west-central IL that could pool ahead of the front which may allow for a brief period of more robust showers and/or thunderstorms towards daybreak.
Though, confidence on this new development occurring remains too low for a formal mention at this time. Regardless, showers should gradually taper from northwest to southeast after 09z leaving dry conditions for Wednesday.
Ceilings will gradually lower in the wake of the showers overnight allowing MVFR ceilings to develop over the terminals.
Though, there have been some pockets of IFR and even LIFR ceilings across IA where higher moisture has been present. The general thinking is that these IFR/LIFR ceilings should lift to the MVFR category as they move into northern IL, but cannot completely rule out a brief period of IFR conditions especially at RFD. The lower ceilings are expected to persist into Wednesday morning before scattering out between 15z-16z with VFR conditions expected from that point forward.
Otherwise, expect south-southwest winds tonight to gradually become westerly and eventually more northwesterly behind the front Wednesday morning. Wind speeds may remain breezy at times with any showers, but should generally remain in the 8-10 kt range through Wednesday afternoon.
Yack
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
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Wind History graph: BUU
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Milwaukee, WI,
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