Sunrise 5:38 AM   Sunset 8:36 PM Moonrise 4:34 PM   Moonset 1:53 AM

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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 733 Am Edt Tue Jun 18 2024
Today - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tonight - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Thu - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Thu night - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

ANZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 918 Am Edt Tue Jun 18 2024
Synopsis - Breezy onshore flow and building seas will result in poor to hazardous boating conditions through mid to late week. Marine conditions will deteriorate further into Thursday as an approaching trough of low pressure reaches the southeastern u.s. Coast. Rain and lightning storm chances increase each day through late week as waves of moisture push westward across the local waters.
Gulf stream hazards - East winds 15 to 20 knots will increase to 20 to 25 knots into this afternoon.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Sunday, june 16th.
47 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 33 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 26 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 18 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS61 KLWX 180820 CCA AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 420 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Updated for Climate section
SYNOPSIS

High pressure will remain anchored offshore through the week, resulting in a prolonged period of heat.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Isold/sct mountain showers and thuderstorms are still expected this afternoon before center of upper high drifts north and settles overhead tonight. High temperatures will be a deg or two warmer than yesterday and dewpoints a slightly higher pushing heat indices to near 100F over western MD and the eastern WV panhadle warranting a Heat Advisory.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Center of upper high will be overhead Wed and Thu promoting large scale subsidence/sinking motion and inhibiting t-storm development everywhere. Guidance indicates slightly lower temps and dewpoints Wed likely as a result of low-level flow coming off of the Atlantic Ocean and not from a continental trajectory.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Upper level ridging along the East Coast will flatten out as we head into the weekend. As this occurs, the 850 hPa high will shift to our south, which will cause 850 hPa flow to turn southwesterly. This will result in a more continental source region for the airmass and even hotter temperatures. High temperatures in the mid-upper 90s appear likely Friday through Sunday, with 100 degrees not entirely out of the question. Dewpoints will also increase into the upper 60s to lower 70s during that time, causing it to feel more humid than preceding days. Heat indices in excess of 100 appear likely during that time for much of the forecast area. There will be lesser relief at night as well, as overnight lows increase into the middle to upper 70s by the weekend to the east of the Blue Ridge (upper 60s to lower 70s further west).

The combination of rising surface temperatures and dewpoints, along with decreasing temperatures aloft as the upper ridge breaks down will lead to an increase in instability, decrease in capping, and a return to thunderstorm chances each afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorm activity is expected to remain relatively isolated on Friday, and primarily confined to locations west of the Blue Ridge.
Thunderstorms coverage should increase slightly on Saturday as mid- level heights continue to slowly fall. Most model guidance shows a well defined upper trough tracking through the Great Lakes sometime during the Sunday-Monday timeframe, but there's variance in timing between the individual models. As large scale ascent associated with that trough increases, so will the coverage of afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions through 12Z Fri. SE winds around 10kt during the day becoming S around 5kt at night.

Prevailing VFR conditions and southerly winds are expected at the terminals on Friday and Saturday. A stray afternoon or evening thunderstorm can't be ruled out either day.

MARINE

South to southeast winds will prevail through much of the week. Southerly channeling combined with bay/river breeze enhancements likely result in SCA level gusts this afternoon and evening.

Winds may near low-end SCA levels in channeled southerly flow during the afternoon/evening hours on both Friday and Saturday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Persistent southerly flow continues, and tidal anomalies are hovering near one to one and a half feet above normal. This is causing minor flooding at Annapolis early this morning.

CLIMATE

Hot temperatures are expected much of this week and especially this coming weekend. The hottest days appear to be Friday through Sunday when several records could be in jeopardy. Below is a list of record high temperatures for today Jun 18th, 21st, 22nd, and the 23rd and the year the record was set, and the current forecast high temperatures for those days. RERs are only issued for DCA, IAD, BWI, and MRB, but other sites are shown for reference.

Tuesday Jun 18th Climate Site Record High Forecast High Washington-National (DCA) 97F (1944) 91F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 94F (2018+) 93F Baltimore (BWI) 97F (1957+) 92F Martinsburg (MRB) 99F (1943) 92F Charlottesville (CHO) 96F (2014+) 93F Annapolis (NAK) 96F (1957) 87F Hagerstown (HGR) 95F (1957) 94F

Friday Jun 21st Climate Site Record High Forecast High Washington-National (DCA) 99F (2012) 97F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 98F (1988) 98F Baltimore (BWI) 100F (2012+) 96F Martinsburg (MRB) 102F (1931) 95F Charlottesville (CHO) 99F (1933) 97F Annapolis (NAK) 100F (1988) 91F Hagerstown (HGR) 97F (1923) 97F

Saturday Jun 22nd Climate Site Record High Forecast High Washington-National (DCA) 101F (1988) 99F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 99F (1988) 99F Baltimore (BWI) 100F (1988) 98F Martinsburg (MRB) 102F (1933) 96F Charlottesville (CHO) 101F (1933) 99F Annapolis (NAK) 101F (1988) 93F Hagerstown (HGR) 100F (1988) 97F

Sunday Jun 23nd Climate Site Record High Forecast High Washington-National (DCA) 98F (1988) 96F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 96F (1988) 97F Baltimore (BWI) 97F (2010) 95F Martinsburg (MRB) 100F (1934) 92F Charlottesville (CHO) 100F (1894) 97F Annapolis (NAK) 98F (1988) 91F Hagerstown (HGR) 98F (1988) 94F

+ indicates that value has been reached on multiple years, with the year displayed being the most recent.



LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ003-502.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ051>053-504.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ531>534-537-540-541-543.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

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Cedar Point, Severn River, Maryland, Tide feet

Baltimore Harbor Approach
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:12 AM EDT     1.04 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:51 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:07 AM EDT     -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 01:59 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:01 PM EDT     0.29 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:10 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:18 PM EDT     -0.54 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:56 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Baltimore Harbor Approach, Maryland Current, knots

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