Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chillicothe, IL
July 3, 2024 5:19 AM CDT (10:19 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:30 AM Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 2:59 AM Moonset 7:02 PM |
Area Discussion for - Central Illinois, IL
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FXUS63 KILX 030745 AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- There will be some strong to severe thunderstorm potential (20-40%chance) south of I-70 today, along with locally heavy rainfall.
- Independence Day will be a bit cooler than normal, though that will be offset by muggy 70s dew points. Though there are 50-60% POPs through the day, the whole day won't be rainy. However, firework festivities may be impacted.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Currently, there is some stratiform rain across areas west of I-55.
This should start to subside in the coming hours. Based on radar estimates, some areas in our forecast area, west of the Illinois River, have received upwards of 2 inches.
As the front is expected to exit the SE CWA in the mid to late afternoon today, storms may refire along the front. These storms also have the potential to have strong, gusty winds but the CAMs continue to indicate that this new CI will be just south/east of the forecast area. The furthest northern extent showers/t'storms could go would be along and south of I-72. Chances of these showers and thunderstorms occuring in our CWA is 20-40 percent.
Independence Day, tomorrow, will be slightly cooler than normal which would be great for outdoor celebrations, but have dewpoints in the mid 70s. There are still several chances for showers and thunderstorms through the day. There is decent MUCAPE south of I-72 this day (1000-2000 J/kg) and DCAPE values (1000-1500 J/kg)
supportive of strong wind gusts in the stronger cells that develop.
The morning into afternoon has 50-70% POPs (increasing with southern CWA extent) being primarily scattered across central and southeastern Illinois. The whole day won't be a washout, there is some break in the activity throughout the afternoon into early evening. From 00-06z Friday (7pm Thurs-1am Fri), when firework displays are set to take place, there is a 30-60% chance of new development. The HRRR/NAMNest are showing the redevelopment not moving into central and southeastern Illinois until after 03z Friday (10pm Thursday). However, the location of these cells will be difficult to know this early since they look to be scattered.
Starting Friday, a brief ridging will set up ahead of the next system that will bring POPs into the area again Sunday. Temperatures through the weekend will be pleasant, with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s. Friday will have the coolest highs (upper 70s to mid 80s) out of the extended period.
Copple
AVIATION
(For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Showers and thunderstorms will gradually work eastward across the central IL terminals overnight, with the higher chances of thunderstorms from KPIA-KDEC southward. As such, have included a tempo group for MVFR vsbys and cigs in TSRA at KPIA, KSPI, and KDEC overnight. Otherwise, only included VCTS/VCSH to the north.
Storms may re-develop after 18Z, but this looks likely to take place SE of a KDEC-KCMI line. Expect localized MVFR vsbys and cigs in thunderstorms. A period of MVFR cigs can be expected for several hours behind the storms, but VFR conditions should return by 16Z-19Z as cigs lift and low clouds start to dissipate.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible after 01Z.
Winds S 8-12 kts, shifting to W after thunderstorms pass through.
37
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- There will be some strong to severe thunderstorm potential (20-40%chance) south of I-70 today, along with locally heavy rainfall.
- Independence Day will be a bit cooler than normal, though that will be offset by muggy 70s dew points. Though there are 50-60% POPs through the day, the whole day won't be rainy. However, firework festivities may be impacted.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Currently, there is some stratiform rain across areas west of I-55.
This should start to subside in the coming hours. Based on radar estimates, some areas in our forecast area, west of the Illinois River, have received upwards of 2 inches.
As the front is expected to exit the SE CWA in the mid to late afternoon today, storms may refire along the front. These storms also have the potential to have strong, gusty winds but the CAMs continue to indicate that this new CI will be just south/east of the forecast area. The furthest northern extent showers/t'storms could go would be along and south of I-72. Chances of these showers and thunderstorms occuring in our CWA is 20-40 percent.
Independence Day, tomorrow, will be slightly cooler than normal which would be great for outdoor celebrations, but have dewpoints in the mid 70s. There are still several chances for showers and thunderstorms through the day. There is decent MUCAPE south of I-72 this day (1000-2000 J/kg) and DCAPE values (1000-1500 J/kg)
supportive of strong wind gusts in the stronger cells that develop.
The morning into afternoon has 50-70% POPs (increasing with southern CWA extent) being primarily scattered across central and southeastern Illinois. The whole day won't be a washout, there is some break in the activity throughout the afternoon into early evening. From 00-06z Friday (7pm Thurs-1am Fri), when firework displays are set to take place, there is a 30-60% chance of new development. The HRRR/NAMNest are showing the redevelopment not moving into central and southeastern Illinois until after 03z Friday (10pm Thursday). However, the location of these cells will be difficult to know this early since they look to be scattered.
Starting Friday, a brief ridging will set up ahead of the next system that will bring POPs into the area again Sunday. Temperatures through the weekend will be pleasant, with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s. Friday will have the coolest highs (upper 70s to mid 80s) out of the extended period.
Copple
AVIATION
(For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Showers and thunderstorms will gradually work eastward across the central IL terminals overnight, with the higher chances of thunderstorms from KPIA-KDEC southward. As such, have included a tempo group for MVFR vsbys and cigs in TSRA at KPIA, KSPI, and KDEC overnight. Otherwise, only included VCTS/VCSH to the north.
Storms may re-develop after 18Z, but this looks likely to take place SE of a KDEC-KCMI line. Expect localized MVFR vsbys and cigs in thunderstorms. A period of MVFR cigs can be expected for several hours behind the storms, but VFR conditions should return by 16Z-19Z as cigs lift and low clouds start to dissipate.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible after 01Z.
Winds S 8-12 kts, shifting to W after thunderstorms pass through.
37
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KC75
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KC75
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KC75
Wind History graph: C75
(wind in knots)
Central Illinois, IL,
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