Sunrise 5:49 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 7:48 PM   Moonset 4:31 AM

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ANZ634 Chesapeake Bay From Little Creek Va To Cape Henry Va Including The Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel- 256 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2024
Through 7 pm - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 foot at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms late. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 foot at 8 seconds. A chance of tstms until early morning. A chance of showers. Fri - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Wave detail: W 1 foot at 4 seconds and E 1 foot at 8 seconds. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Wave detail: E 1 foot at 5 seconds. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers. Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Wave detail: se 1 foot at 4 seconds and E 1 foot at 9 seconds. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 foot. Wave detail: E 1 foot at 9 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Sun - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Sun night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Mon - S winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Mon night - SW winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 256 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a cold front slowly moves south and through the area tonight bringing scattered showers and Thunderstorms. The front lifts back north Saturday with daily chances of afternoon and evening showers and Thunderstorms continuing through the memorial day weekend. Another cold front approaches the region Monday, and passes through the waters by Tuesday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 231931 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 331 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will approach from the northwest this evening into tonight. The boundary weakens as it pushes south into the local area on Friday. The front lifts back north Saturday with daily chances of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms continuing through the Memorial Day weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

A weakening cold front will approach the area from the NW this evening into tonight. In advance of the front, expect showers and thunderstorms to push into the area from the west by this evening (generally after 5pm) and work their way eastward through 11 pm or so. The threat of svr weather will be low/isolated at best (SPC marginal risk still in place) with CAMs suggesting that the storms over the Roanoke Valley at the current time will be the primary threat as they straddle the VA/NC border. Outside of isold/wdly scattered storms through the evening hours, expect at partly to mostly cloudy sky overnight with lows in the 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

The aforementioned weak front will stall out across the local area on Friday. 12z NAM and HRRR are showing the potential for scattered showers/storms during the morning before clearing and then additional isold showers/storms developing in the afternoon. Remainder of the guidance favors the afternoon/evening for any showers/storms. Forecast still favors highest PoPs on Friday after 18z (15-20% NE to 30-40% S).
Remaining summer-like and rather warm Friday with highs in the mid to upper 80s inland, and upper 70s to lower 80s at the coast due to a developing sea-breeze in weak flow. Mild Friday night with lows in the 60s. 23/12z guidance has some broad consistency in showing shortwave energy arriving Saturday in westerly mid/upper level flow, with the boundary lifting back to the N, but confidence in the details remains low. Given this, PoPs for mainly afternoon/evening showers/tstms are 30-50% across the entire area. Highs Saturday will once again be in the mid 80s, with upper 70s to lower 80s toward the coast.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Remaining warm and humid Sunday into Memorial Day with the potential for showers and thunderstorms Memorial Day.

Continued warm and humid Saturday night with any showers/tstms diminishing in coverage as shortwave ridging arrives in the westerly flow aloft. Lows will mainly be in the 60s. Highs Sunday will once again be in the mid 80s inland with upper 70s to lower 80s toward the coast. Less coverage of showers/tstms are expected Sunday afternoon/evening as broad ridging prevails, with PoPs less than 10% NE to ~30% SW. 23/12z EPS/GEFS depict an anomalous trough digging from the Great Lakes to the Northeast Monday through Wednesday with a cold front pushing through the Mid-Atlantic. Confidence on timing remains on the low-side, but given the strength of the trough more coverage of showers/tstms are possible in the Memorial Day/Monday night timeframe. Highs Memorial Day will once again be rather warm in the mid 80s to around 90F (slightly lower at the coast), with highs trending down into the upper 70s to lower 80s toward the middle of next week with drier air also arriving into the region.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Brief flight restrictions (mainly vsby) will be possible in any showers/tstms this evening should they reach the SE VA terminals. Best chance will be between (22z-03z). Winds will remain light, except gusty and erratic with storms.

A front stalls in the vicinity of the region Friday-Monday, bringing daily chances for mainly afternoon/evening showers/tstms. Chances for showers/tstms are mainly 15-20% NE to 30-40% SW Friday, 30-40% across the area Saturday, and 15% or less NE to 20-30% SW Sunday. There is the potential for more coverage of showers/tstms Monday as an upper trough approaches from the NW.

MARINE
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Benign conditions expected on the waters through Sunday.

- Chances for showers and storms (especailly in the afternoons and evenings) through the Holiday weekend.

A very quiet stretch of marine weather conditions is expected through Sunday. Expect winds of 5-15kt through Sunday with seas 2-3 ft over the ocean/waves 1-2 ft in the bay. Afternoons will likely be dominated by sea breezes each day so winds should become onshore during those times, otherwise expect south to southeast winds.

A cold front approaches the area on Monday associated with a deepening low pressure center over the Great Lakes. Have continued with winds of 10 to 20 kt on Monday, still below small craft advisory criteria. Winds turn NW at 10 to 15 kt behind the front on Tuesday into midweek.

Marine interests will need to keep an eye out for thunderstorms each day through Memorial Day, mainly in the afternoon and evening.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Deep Creek Entrance, Elizabeth River, Virginia, Tide feet

Chesapeake Bay Entrance
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Thu -- 12:04 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:22 AM EDT     -1.17 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:41 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:48 AM EDT     0.49 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:55 AM EDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 11:11 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:04 PM EDT     -1.29 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:10 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:08 PM EDT     1.10 knots Max Flood
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Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current, knots

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