Sunrise 6:31 AM   Sunset 8:44 PM Moonrise 2:39 AM   Moonset 3:48 PM

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FXUS62 KFFC 021101 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 701 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

New 12Z Aviation Discussion

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

A broad upper trough will continue to support lingering showers and afternoon thunderstorms today. Activity will be increase in coverage during the afternoon as multi-layered cloudiness thins out and instability increases. CAPE values during this time frame are forecast to range from 1000-1500 J/kg across the N and W portions of the County Warning Area, with values across the SE portion of the area generally less than 500 J/kg. A few storms may briefly become strong if enough insolation is realized, but severe storms are not expected. High temperatures today are forecast to range from near 70 in the NE mountains to the mid 80s across the S third of the area.

Thunderstorms should weaken quickly this evening, with just a few lingering showers overnight. Low temperatures by Monday morning will range from near 60 in the NE to the mid 60s across most of the remainder of the area.

As the upper trough shifts farther E on Monday, showers and a few thunderstorms will become more diurnally driven, with the best chances across the SE portion of the area (closer to the aforementioned trough). Due to decreasing instability, storms are not expected to be strong. High temperatures on Monday will range from the upper 70s in the NE to near 90 SE of Macon. /SEC

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Relatively weak, quasi-zonal flow aloft at the start of the long- term period will transition to a more amplified, ridging pattern at the end. Ample moisture advection courtesy of southerly to southwesterly flow plus diurnal heating will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day Tuesday through Thursday. In addition, periodic disturbances in the quasi-zonal flow could help organize convection and potentially aid in upscale growth into multi-cell clusters/MCSs (thus allowing showers and storms to persist overnight even after instability wanes) but that will be more of a short-term period challenge as these disturbances are often tricky to forecast farther out than a couple days. A lack of well- defined forcing and little to no deep-layer shear suggests that the potential for organized/widespread severe weather is quite low. That said, strong storms with localized damaging wind gusts and small hail will be possible. The QPF ranges from 0.10" to 0.25" across central Georgia to 0.50" to 0.75" across north Georgia. Localized rainfall totals around 1.0" are possible generally in the higher terrain of north Georgia, where orographic lift may aid in precip efficiency.
High temps will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s outside of the mountains; for low temps, lower 60s to lower 70s.

Rain chances are expected to drop off significantly on Friday and Saturday as ensemble guidance depicts a building upper-level ridge over the western two-thirds of the CONUS, placing the CWA beneath northwest flow aloft. At the surface, drier air will accompany this pattern change, indicated by dew points falling into the 60s area- wide amid westerly to northwesterly surface winds. While low temps in the upper 50s to mid-60s are forecasted for much of the CWA on Saturday morning, high temps will remain in the mid-80s to lower 90s outside of the mountains this weekend.

Martin

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Isolated shower activity this early this morning will give way to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon, with the greatest likelihood/duration around the Atlanta metro area and points N. Have changed PROB30 groups to TEMPO in these areas.
Winds are expected to be light outside of thunderstorms. Wind direction at ATL is expected to veer from SE to SSW around midday.

//ATL Confidence
12Z Update
Medium for wind direction, medium to high for all other elements.

SEC

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 64 86 66 89 / 40 20 10 20 Atlanta 66 86 68 89 / 40 20 10 30 Blairsville 59 81 61 83 / 20 30 10 30 Cartersville 64 86 66 89 / 20 20 10 30 Columbus 67 88 69 90 / 30 20 10 20 Gainesville 64 84 66 87 / 30 20 10 30 Macon 66 88 68 90 / 30 30 10 20 Rome 64 88 66 89 / 10 20 10 30 Peachtree City 64 86 66 89 / 30 20 10 20 Vidalia 67 89 69 92 / 30 40 10 30

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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