Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 8:38 PM Moonrise 2:15 AM   Moonset 6:01 PM

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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 434 Am Edt Wed Jul 3 2024
Rest of the overnight - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Today - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Thu - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu night - SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri - SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri night - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Sat - SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Sun - SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 434 Am Edt Wed Jul 3 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
strong high pressure shifts offshore as a warm front approaches from the west before passing to the north today. A cold front nears the waters Friday into Saturday before stalling out early next week. Small craft advisories are possible for portions of the waters Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

FXUS61 KLWX 030746 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 346 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
Surface high pressure will shift offshore throughout the day today, yielding low humidity and seasonable temperatures. An approaching frontal system will bring renewed shower and thunderstorm chances for Thursday and Friday. The cold front will move over the forecast area this weekend before stalling over the area allowing precipitation chances to linger through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Surface high pressure will shift offshore throughout the day today, yielding dry conditions through this evening. A light isolated shower cannot be ruled out this morning west of the Blue Ridge as a disturbance moves overhead. Dry air aloft is expected to keep most precipitation at bay with confidence being too low to include in the forecast package. After a few days of below normal temperatures, seasonable temperatures return as southerly wind and upper level ridging bring in warm and moist air. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s for most with higher elevations in the low 80s.

As surface high pressure and upper level ridging move offshore, an approaching cold front will bring increased cloud cover throughout the day. Thickest cloud cover will be in the northwestern portions of the area of the forecast area with the front nearby.
Precipitation will return to the forecast overnight with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for those along and west of the Alleghenies. Overnight low temperatures will be in the upper 60s to 70s for most.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Shower and thunderstorm chances continue to increase throughout the day as a cold front and a pre-frontal trough approach the area. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected, peaking Thursday afternoon as the frontal boundary stalls just west of the forecast area. CAPE values continue to be favorable for convection with values ranging from 1500-2500 J/kg. Lapse Rates and Bulk Shear remain on the weak side with values less than 6 C/km and 30 knots respectively. In addition to convection, precipitable water values will near record levels with the latest CAMs agreeing on over 2 inches for those east of the Blue Ridge. Heavy rainfall and flooding of urban areas will be the primary threat with thunderstorms on Thursday.

The warming trend continues on Thursday as high temperatures reach the mid 90s for most. An increase in moisture will result in heat indices ranging from 94 to 103 degrees at lower elevations. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 70s for most.

The cold front will remain stalled just to our northwest on Friday, allowing continued shower and thunderstorm chances.
Highest chances remain in the western portions of the area nearest to the frontal boundary. High temperatures will be int he 90s for most with increased dew points leading to heat indices reaching triple digits for most at lower elevations.
Overnight low temperatures will provide little relief from the heat with lows in the mid to upper 70s for those in the I-95 corridor.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
An upper trough digging over the eastern Great Lakes/OH valley quickly moves northeast and away from the area. In its wake southwesterly flow prevails aloft through the start of next week, with several weak shortwaves moving over our area. Unsettled weather is likely each afternoon/early evening, except for Sunday.

A weak frontal boundary is forecast to be somewhere along or east of the Blue Ridge Saturday morning. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the afternoon, though most should focus along and east of the surface frontal boundary. The latest 00Z guidance is trending drier for the Alleghenies and possibly I-81 corridor, with most of the rain chances being along/east of US-15. Hot and humid conditions persist as highs reach the low to mid 90s, with peak heat indices of 100-105. Given the ample instability and moisture present, a few strong to severe storms could develop along and east of the I-95 corridor.

The surface front pushes mostly south of the area Sunday, ushering in a slightly drier airmass with dew points in the 60s. Highs a tad bit less hot, in the upper 80s to low 90s. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon, mostly in Central VA and far southern MD. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions likely.

Unsettled weather returns to the forecast for the start of next week as deep moisture advects into the region on steady south winds.
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are forecast each day, with highs reaching at least the low 90s. Mild overnight lows mostly in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected today as winds remain out of the south. Winds pick up this afternoon with MRB, BWI, and MTN gusting 15-20 knots. Winds are expected to remain light at all other terminals through tonight with cloud cover increasing.

Precipitation returns to the forecast Thursday and Friday with conditions expected to deteriorate to sub-VFR. Reduced CIGs and VSBYs are likely during any showers and thunderstorms, as well as gusty winds and frequent lightning. Shower and thunderstorm chances diminish each night with winds remaining out of the south/southwest.

Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon due to a weak frontal boundary over the area. The highest chances will be along and east of I-95. Any storm that moves over a terminal is likely to produce a brief period of sub-VFR conditions, along with gusty winds. Outside of thunderstorm activity, VFR conditions are expected.

The front sags south of the area Sunday, bringing mostly dry conditions. However, a stray afternoon thunderstorm may be possible.

MARINE
A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect for Wednesday afternoon and into the evening. Southern channeling will lead to gusts up to 25 knots over the waters, mainly over the Chesapeake Bay. Dry conditions are expected throughout today before precipitation returns to the forecast for Thursday and Friday. During convection each afternoon, SMWs are likely for gusty winds.

Scattered afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms are forecast Saturday as a weak frontal boundary is draped over the local waters. Any storm could be capable of producing wind gusts in excess of 35 knots and frequent lightning strikes. Special Marine Warnings may be needed as storms move across the waters.
Thunderstorm activity diminishes in the evening, though a storm or two could last into the night.

Southerly channeling is possible in the open waters of the Chesapeake Bay Saturday evening to Saturday night. Small Craft Advisory may be needed for winds gusting to 20 knots for several hours in the evening.

Winds decrease Saturday night, and remain below SCA criteria Sunday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Tidal anomalies are expected to continue their steady climb through the rest of this week, into the weekend, and possibly next week as south to southeast winds prevail for most of the period. Sensitive locations are expected to reach Action Stage during the higher of the two daily high tides. Annapolis is the most likely to reach Minor Flood Stage for the Thursday morning high tide cycle. Beyond that, will need to continue monitoring trends to see if, and when, any Coastal Flood Advisories are needed through the weekend.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ530>534-537>543.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ531-532.

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Bellevue
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:37 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:37 AM EDT     3.58 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:47 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:01 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:16 PM EDT     2.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bellevue, D.C., Tide feet

Benning Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:51 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:52 AM EDT     3.72 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:01 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:01 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:31 PM EDT     2.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Benning Bridge, D.C., Tide feet

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Sterling, VA,