Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Junction City, OR
June 2, 2024 2:21 PM PDT (21:21 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:29 AM Sunset 8:51 PM Moonrise 2:05 AM Moonset 3:45 PM |
PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 847 Am Pdt Tue Sep 13 2022
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm pdt this evening - .
Rest of today - SW wind to 5 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Widespread dense fog and a chance of showers in the morning, then areas of dense fog in the afternoon.
Tonight - N wind to 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Areas of dense fog in the evening. Patchy dense fog after midnight.
Wed - N wind 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy dense fog in the morning.
Wed night - NW wind 5 kt. Wind waves W 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Thu - SE wind 5 kt, veering to W in the afternoon. Wind waves se 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the W at 4 seconds in the afternoon. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Thu night - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Fri - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 3 ft.
Sat - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.
PZZ200 117 Pm Pdt Sun Jun 2 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - An unusually strong late season storm system brings stronger southerly winds to the waters through this evening. Unsettled conditions continue through mid next week as additional fronts move to the waters.
FXUS66 KPQR 021721 AAA AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1021 AM PDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Updated Aviation Discussion
SYNOPSIS
Today's weather will be more like early November than early June as an unseasonably strong and wet low pressure system moves into the Pacific Northwest. Deep moisture with tropical origins will lead to locally heavy rain, especially this afternoon and evening in the higher terrain. Rainfall along the coast, Coast Range, and Cascades may be sufficient to result in minor flooding of small creeks and streams, as well as minor debris flows in recently burned areas. Southwest winds will be blustery at times through Monday, especially along exposed portions of the Cascades. Unsettled and cool weather will persist through Tuesday, then a sharp trend toward warmer and drier weather will develop mid to late week.
SHORT TERM
Today through Tuesday...Rain will continue to spread across SW Washington and NW Oregon through this evening. Infrared and water vapor satellite imagery across the Pacific is more reminiscent of late autumn than late spring, as a strong and consolidated jet stream carries a continuous stream of moisture from Taiwan all the way to 130W, knocking on the door of the Pacific Northwest. Total precipitable water (TPW) usually not seen in the Pac NW are also approaching, with TPW values of 1.3 to 1.6" beginning to cross 130W.
The moisture has been enhanced by the remnants of earlier tropical activity in the West Pacific.
With a moderate to strong atmospheric river containing a deep layer of moisture, moderate to strong synoptic lift, and surges of orographic enhancement powered by surges of 35-45 kt SW flow at 850 mb, the ingredients are there for very heavy rainfall rates in the Coast Range and Cascades. Between roughly 9 AM this morning and 6 AM Monday morning, 00z HRRR 90th percentile rainfall rates of 0.3-0.5"/hr are common in the higher terrain, with HRRR means generally around 0.25"/hr. This will add up quickly, with HRRR means suggesting widespread rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches in the higher terrain by Monday morning. The HRRR 90th percentile QPF is closer to 4 to 8 inches. Fortunately, most of our mainstem rivers have come down close to their summer base flow levels, so we are not anticipating mainstem river flooding. Probabilistic river guidance shows less than a 5 percent chance of any of our mainstem rivers flooding due to this event. There will be significant rises on some, but flooding is not anticipated. While mainstem rivers are not expected to flood, smaller creeks and streams may be a different story, especially in recently burned areas. There may also be minor debris flows in recently burned areas due to the heavy rain. Due to concerns about these issues, WPC has also issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for these areas of heavier rain in their Day 1 outlook for 12z Sunday through 12z Monday.
For the inland valleys, this will also be an impressive rain event by June standards, but the rainfall rates should remain less problematic than those in the higher terrain. High-res guidance shows significant rain-shadowing of the Willamette Valley as strong SW flow downslopes off of the Coast Range. Despite the heavy hourly rainfall rates mentioned above for the Coast Range, HRRR means are generally less than 0.1"/hr for the Willamette Valley with 90th percentile values rarely more than 0.2"/hr. This suggests a steady, light to occasionally moderate rain today and tonight for the inland valleys.
A cold front will bring an end to the steady rain early Monday morning, with more showery precipitation expected for Monday.
Overall, HRRR means suggest 0.75-1.50" for the inland valleys today through Monday, with the lighter amounts west of I-5 due to above-mentioned rain-shadowing. HRRR 90th percentile QPF is on the order of 1-2 inches with a similar distribution.
Not only will today be unseasonably wet, but also blustery as southerly MSLP gradients ramp up throughout the day. Latest 06z NAM guidance shows 45-55 kt SW flow as low as 900 mb over much of NW Oregon this afternoon. While the rain will do a lot to stabilize the air mass, there will probably be enough mixing to bring some of that momentum down to the surface. Therefore any location in our CWA could easily see gusts 30-40 mph this afternoon, and possibly again late tonight/early Monday morning as the cold front moves through.
Exposed, elevated portions of the Coast Range and Cascades will likely see gusts exceeding 50 mph at times through Monday morning.
Snow levels will dip behind the cold front Monday, perhaps as low as 5000 ft north of Santiam Pass. This dip in the snow levels should be brief and non-impactful. We do not issue winter highlights for elevations above 6000 ft, but we are aware that May and June are peak timing for those planning to climb the Cascade volcano peaks. Anyone with plans to climb these peaks should refrain from attempting to do so...the peaks will see occasional blizzard conditions today through Monday morning. Heavy snow, poor visibility, and strong winds will make it hazardous for anyone exposed to the conditions up at summit level.
The unseasonably strong/zonal Pacific jet stream will send another system toward the Pac NW Monday night into Tuesday, but the strongest forcing and deepest moisture for this system appear likely to aim north of our forecast area. NBM 75th percentile QPF still bring more than 1 inch of rain to the N OR Coast Range, Willapa Hills, and S WA Cascades, with 0.25-0.50" for the Portland metro area. That said, 10th percentile NBM QPF shows less than 0.25" throughout our CWA with no rain in the Portland metro southward, so there remains a wide variety of model solutions for how Tuesday will play out. At this point, it appears the best forecast is for some rain and slightly below normal temps in our northern zones, with a drier forecast and temps returning closer to seasonal norms (lower 70s in the interior lowlands) for our southern zones. Weagle
LONG TERM
Wednesday through Saturday...Starting midweek, models are suggesting a high likelihood of a strong upper level ridge of high pressure developing somewhere over the Western United States.
Looking at the 00z WPC cluster analyses, all clusters are now indicating positive 500 mb height anomalies over WA/OR (i.e.
above-normal temperatures in most cases) by Thursday. Therefore confidence in above-normal temperatures by the end of the week is very high - the challenge remains determining just how much above normal temps will be.
Most 00z WPC clusters suggest the upper ridge axis will be far enough inland to maintain at least some vestige of onshore flow in the low-levels, so this does not appear to be the type of warm spell that reaches the coast. The WPC cluster most favored by ensemble members is also the hottest one, with the most significant 500 mb height anomalies. However this solution is still only shown by 40-50% of members - mostly from the EC ensemble suite - so things can still change. NBM probs of reaching 90 degrees for the inland valleys have remained steady at 30-60%, highest near the Portland metro Friday and Saturday. The hottest members of the ensemble suite appear to have backed off a bit, as NBM probs of reaching 100 degrees are now generally below 10%. Pattern recognition-wise, this has the look of a prolonged but low-intensity heat event with multiple days in the mid 80s to lower 90s for the inland valleys. This type of heat event, while not necessarily record breaking, can still be problematic for those who are sensitive to heat. With all this in mind, those sensitive to heat should pay close attention to the forecast the next few days, and perhaps consider where they may go to stay cool late next week should the hotter forecast guidance prevail. Weagle
AVIATION
Currently, IFR conditions at the coast along with a mixture of VFR and MVFR inland with widespread rain across the airspace. HRRR showing widespread MVFR developing (70-90% chance)
inland after about 20Z Sun and continuing overnight while IFR conditions persist along the coast. As the rain increases will also see periods of reduced visibility across the airspace. In additions, mountains will become obscured in clouds and precipitation.
Southerly winds across the airspace with gusts up to 35 kt along the coast and up to 25 kt inland through around 08Z Monday.
Afterwards, southerly winds will persist, but gusts are expected to weaken to 25 kt along the coast and 20 kt for inland locations.
PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with MVFR conditions developing around 20Z Sun. MVFR chances decrease to around 50% after 00Z Mon as pcpn decreases. Locally heavy rain could bring visibility down to MVFR thresholds. Expect southerly gusts around 20 kt, mainly after through about 08Z Monday. Afterwards, southerly winds will persist with gusts up to 20 kt. /42
MARINE
A strong storm system, more typical in winter, will move into the northeast Pacific Sunday lifting a warm front across the waters this morning. NBM probabilities for Gale Force winds are 20-40% (about 10% higher than 24 hours ago) but the deterministic and HRRR guidance are higher with a 70-90+% chance for gale force gusts, mainly 15-21Z on Sunday. Given the upward trend in guidance and better potential for a brief coastal jet, the Gale warning looks reasonable. Small Craft Advisory continues into Monday for winds and/or seas. Small Craft criteria wind gusts are also expected for the Columbia River Bar late Sunday morning into the afternoon.
Seas will build to 8-10 feet at 10-12 seconds this afternoon, persisting into Monday. Another westerly swell will enter the waters toward the middle of next week with seas of 10-12 feet at 12-15 seconds. /mh -Batz
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ210.
Gale Warning until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ251>253- 271>273.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT Monday for PZZ251>253-271>273.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1021 AM PDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Updated Aviation Discussion
SYNOPSIS
Today's weather will be more like early November than early June as an unseasonably strong and wet low pressure system moves into the Pacific Northwest. Deep moisture with tropical origins will lead to locally heavy rain, especially this afternoon and evening in the higher terrain. Rainfall along the coast, Coast Range, and Cascades may be sufficient to result in minor flooding of small creeks and streams, as well as minor debris flows in recently burned areas. Southwest winds will be blustery at times through Monday, especially along exposed portions of the Cascades. Unsettled and cool weather will persist through Tuesday, then a sharp trend toward warmer and drier weather will develop mid to late week.
SHORT TERM
Today through Tuesday...Rain will continue to spread across SW Washington and NW Oregon through this evening. Infrared and water vapor satellite imagery across the Pacific is more reminiscent of late autumn than late spring, as a strong and consolidated jet stream carries a continuous stream of moisture from Taiwan all the way to 130W, knocking on the door of the Pacific Northwest. Total precipitable water (TPW) usually not seen in the Pac NW are also approaching, with TPW values of 1.3 to 1.6" beginning to cross 130W.
The moisture has been enhanced by the remnants of earlier tropical activity in the West Pacific.
With a moderate to strong atmospheric river containing a deep layer of moisture, moderate to strong synoptic lift, and surges of orographic enhancement powered by surges of 35-45 kt SW flow at 850 mb, the ingredients are there for very heavy rainfall rates in the Coast Range and Cascades. Between roughly 9 AM this morning and 6 AM Monday morning, 00z HRRR 90th percentile rainfall rates of 0.3-0.5"/hr are common in the higher terrain, with HRRR means generally around 0.25"/hr. This will add up quickly, with HRRR means suggesting widespread rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches in the higher terrain by Monday morning. The HRRR 90th percentile QPF is closer to 4 to 8 inches. Fortunately, most of our mainstem rivers have come down close to their summer base flow levels, so we are not anticipating mainstem river flooding. Probabilistic river guidance shows less than a 5 percent chance of any of our mainstem rivers flooding due to this event. There will be significant rises on some, but flooding is not anticipated. While mainstem rivers are not expected to flood, smaller creeks and streams may be a different story, especially in recently burned areas. There may also be minor debris flows in recently burned areas due to the heavy rain. Due to concerns about these issues, WPC has also issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for these areas of heavier rain in their Day 1 outlook for 12z Sunday through 12z Monday.
For the inland valleys, this will also be an impressive rain event by June standards, but the rainfall rates should remain less problematic than those in the higher terrain. High-res guidance shows significant rain-shadowing of the Willamette Valley as strong SW flow downslopes off of the Coast Range. Despite the heavy hourly rainfall rates mentioned above for the Coast Range, HRRR means are generally less than 0.1"/hr for the Willamette Valley with 90th percentile values rarely more than 0.2"/hr. This suggests a steady, light to occasionally moderate rain today and tonight for the inland valleys.
A cold front will bring an end to the steady rain early Monday morning, with more showery precipitation expected for Monday.
Overall, HRRR means suggest 0.75-1.50" for the inland valleys today through Monday, with the lighter amounts west of I-5 due to above-mentioned rain-shadowing. HRRR 90th percentile QPF is on the order of 1-2 inches with a similar distribution.
Not only will today be unseasonably wet, but also blustery as southerly MSLP gradients ramp up throughout the day. Latest 06z NAM guidance shows 45-55 kt SW flow as low as 900 mb over much of NW Oregon this afternoon. While the rain will do a lot to stabilize the air mass, there will probably be enough mixing to bring some of that momentum down to the surface. Therefore any location in our CWA could easily see gusts 30-40 mph this afternoon, and possibly again late tonight/early Monday morning as the cold front moves through.
Exposed, elevated portions of the Coast Range and Cascades will likely see gusts exceeding 50 mph at times through Monday morning.
Snow levels will dip behind the cold front Monday, perhaps as low as 5000 ft north of Santiam Pass. This dip in the snow levels should be brief and non-impactful. We do not issue winter highlights for elevations above 6000 ft, but we are aware that May and June are peak timing for those planning to climb the Cascade volcano peaks. Anyone with plans to climb these peaks should refrain from attempting to do so...the peaks will see occasional blizzard conditions today through Monday morning. Heavy snow, poor visibility, and strong winds will make it hazardous for anyone exposed to the conditions up at summit level.
The unseasonably strong/zonal Pacific jet stream will send another system toward the Pac NW Monday night into Tuesday, but the strongest forcing and deepest moisture for this system appear likely to aim north of our forecast area. NBM 75th percentile QPF still bring more than 1 inch of rain to the N OR Coast Range, Willapa Hills, and S WA Cascades, with 0.25-0.50" for the Portland metro area. That said, 10th percentile NBM QPF shows less than 0.25" throughout our CWA with no rain in the Portland metro southward, so there remains a wide variety of model solutions for how Tuesday will play out. At this point, it appears the best forecast is for some rain and slightly below normal temps in our northern zones, with a drier forecast and temps returning closer to seasonal norms (lower 70s in the interior lowlands) for our southern zones. Weagle
LONG TERM
Wednesday through Saturday...Starting midweek, models are suggesting a high likelihood of a strong upper level ridge of high pressure developing somewhere over the Western United States.
Looking at the 00z WPC cluster analyses, all clusters are now indicating positive 500 mb height anomalies over WA/OR (i.e.
above-normal temperatures in most cases) by Thursday. Therefore confidence in above-normal temperatures by the end of the week is very high - the challenge remains determining just how much above normal temps will be.
Most 00z WPC clusters suggest the upper ridge axis will be far enough inland to maintain at least some vestige of onshore flow in the low-levels, so this does not appear to be the type of warm spell that reaches the coast. The WPC cluster most favored by ensemble members is also the hottest one, with the most significant 500 mb height anomalies. However this solution is still only shown by 40-50% of members - mostly from the EC ensemble suite - so things can still change. NBM probs of reaching 90 degrees for the inland valleys have remained steady at 30-60%, highest near the Portland metro Friday and Saturday. The hottest members of the ensemble suite appear to have backed off a bit, as NBM probs of reaching 100 degrees are now generally below 10%. Pattern recognition-wise, this has the look of a prolonged but low-intensity heat event with multiple days in the mid 80s to lower 90s for the inland valleys. This type of heat event, while not necessarily record breaking, can still be problematic for those who are sensitive to heat. With all this in mind, those sensitive to heat should pay close attention to the forecast the next few days, and perhaps consider where they may go to stay cool late next week should the hotter forecast guidance prevail. Weagle
AVIATION
Currently, IFR conditions at the coast along with a mixture of VFR and MVFR inland with widespread rain across the airspace. HRRR showing widespread MVFR developing (70-90% chance)
inland after about 20Z Sun and continuing overnight while IFR conditions persist along the coast. As the rain increases will also see periods of reduced visibility across the airspace. In additions, mountains will become obscured in clouds and precipitation.
Southerly winds across the airspace with gusts up to 35 kt along the coast and up to 25 kt inland through around 08Z Monday.
Afterwards, southerly winds will persist, but gusts are expected to weaken to 25 kt along the coast and 20 kt for inland locations.
PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with MVFR conditions developing around 20Z Sun. MVFR chances decrease to around 50% after 00Z Mon as pcpn decreases. Locally heavy rain could bring visibility down to MVFR thresholds. Expect southerly gusts around 20 kt, mainly after through about 08Z Monday. Afterwards, southerly winds will persist with gusts up to 20 kt. /42
MARINE
A strong storm system, more typical in winter, will move into the northeast Pacific Sunday lifting a warm front across the waters this morning. NBM probabilities for Gale Force winds are 20-40% (about 10% higher than 24 hours ago) but the deterministic and HRRR guidance are higher with a 70-90+% chance for gale force gusts, mainly 15-21Z on Sunday. Given the upward trend in guidance and better potential for a brief coastal jet, the Gale warning looks reasonable. Small Craft Advisory continues into Monday for winds and/or seas. Small Craft criteria wind gusts are also expected for the Columbia River Bar late Sunday morning into the afternoon.
Seas will build to 8-10 feet at 10-12 seconds this afternoon, persisting into Monday. Another westerly swell will enter the waters toward the middle of next week with seas of 10-12 feet at 12-15 seconds. /mh -Batz
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ210.
Gale Warning until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ251>253- 271>273.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT Monday for PZZ251>253-271>273.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KEUG MAHLON SWEET FIELD,OR | 6 sm | 27 min | SE 11 | 6 sm | Overcast | Mist | 61°F | 57°F | 88% | 29.86 |
| KCVO CORVALLIS MUNI,OR | 21 sm | 25 min | S 12G19 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 61°F | 57°F | 88% | 29.82 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Drift Creek, Alsea River, Oregon, Tide feet
Toledo
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:08 AM PDT Moonrise
Sun -- 04:46 AM PDT 0.47 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:33 AM PDT Sunrise
Sun -- 10:37 AM PDT 5.71 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:17 PM PDT 1.34 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:48 PM PDT Moonset
Sun -- 08:54 PM PDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:34 PM PDT 8.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:08 AM PDT Moonrise
Sun -- 04:46 AM PDT 0.47 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:33 AM PDT Sunrise
Sun -- 10:37 AM PDT 5.71 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:17 PM PDT 1.34 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:48 PM PDT Moonset
Sun -- 08:54 PM PDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:34 PM PDT 8.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Toledo, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 6.3 |
| 1 am |
| 4.7 |
| 2 am |
| 3 |
| 3 am |
| 1.6 |
| 4 am |
| 0.7 |
| 5 am |
| 0.5 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 2.2 |
| 8 am |
| 3.6 |
| 9 am |
| 4.8 |
| 10 am |
| 5.6 |
| 11 am |
| 5.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 5.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 4.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 4 |
| 8 pm |
| 5.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 7.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 8.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 8.4 |
Portland, OR,
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