Sunrise 5:23 AM   Sunset 8:31 PM Moonrise 3:20 PM   Moonset 1:55 AM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 357 Pm Edt Sun Jun 16 2024
Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Thu night - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Fri night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

ANZ300 357 Pm Edt Sun Jun 16 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure moves stays centered offshore while remaining in control through most of the week.

FXUS61 KOKX 162002 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 402 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains centered off the mid Atlantic coast through Thursday, and weakens Friday through Saturday.
Meanwhile, weak disturbances pass near or just to the north of the area Friday and Saturday. A stronger wave of low pressure approaches Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/
High pressure centered just off the southern New England coast will slowly drift east tonight. Low level moisture gradually increases tonight with a SE-S flow advecting higher dew points into the area.
Not so sure there's going to be low stratus development to the extent that some guidance, particularly NAM, is showing overnight with this being the first night of southerly flow with an antecedent dry airmass. Will include some clouds cover for parts of the interior, but not to the extent of NAM. Could be some patchy fog too, but will leave it out for now. Lows will be in the upper 50s for interior and eastern portions of the area with the NYC metro only falling into the low to middle 60s.

SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Deep-layered ridging for Monday keeps us rain-free, but it will feel more muggy than the past couple of days. It'll be warmer as well as temps through the boundary layer rise. Expecting highs in the low 80s for a good portion of LI and CT, with middle and upper 80s elsewhere.

A strong ridge will then be in place Tuesday through Wednesday with a 500mb high centered near or over us and the surface high offshore to our east. This should be enough to keep any shower activity out of the area during this period.

Noted trends in the global models from past 48 hours are that forecast 850mb temperatures/dewpoints for both Tuesday and Wednesday have been lowering. This brings some uncertainty regarding how much surface dewpoints will mix out with daytime heating and resulting heat indices. Granted not everywhere will be mixing up to 850mb, particularly for coastal areas where a more southerly flow arrives off upper 60s water temperatures. But even for the inland areas that remain with a SW flow, thinking that mixing to this level can occur.
Additionally, without a cold front or significant trough nearby and thus a lack of moisture convergence, surface dewpoints can mix out a few degrees from the morning dewpoints on a SW flow both days. Would be more confident in the higher NBM surface dewpoints (which have been trending lower as well) if 850mb dewpoints were progged more in the order of 16-18C instead of the currently progged 10-14C. Have therefore blended the NBM with some of the lower global guidance MOS numbers.

Regarding ambient temperatures, 850mb temps are progged at 17-19C for both Tuesday and Wednesday. With the flow off the cool waters, expecting highs mostly 85-90 for LI and coastal CT and around 90 for NYC both days. Otherwise, for inland areas, highs mostly in the mid 90s. It appears that the NBM percentiles may be skewed too warm due to bias correction methods, so the deterministic NBM, which has been generally closer to lower end of the distribution for the past several weeks, was followed more closely, and is more in line with the anticipated temperatures aloft and low level winds.

After collaboration with the surrounding offices, have decided to go with heat advisories where there was high enough confidence in reaching criteria for the two days. This includes all of our NJ zones and most of our NY zones. Heat indices here expected mostly in the 95-100 range.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
**Key Points**

* A long duration heat wave is expected through Saturday, possibly into Sunday.

* The combination of the heat and humidity will produce heat index values of 95 to potentially around 103 during this time.

* Not much relief at night as overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to the mid 70s, with dew points remaining in the 60s.

A deep layered, and strong upper ridge along the east coast begins to weaken and flatten across the northeast Wednesday night into Thursday night as surface high pressure remains anchored off the mid Atlantic coast. The flow will be more zonal across the northeast Thursday into the upcoming weekend allowing weak disturbances in the mid and upper levels to track near or just north of the region Friday and Saturday. A stronger wave approaches for Sunday. While the heat and humidity are expected to continue possibly into the upcoming weekend, the peak is likely Thursday into Friday. With the anomalous strength of the ridge there is a chance that temperatures across the interior may even peak near 100 degrees Thursday and Friday. . Also, there will not be much relief at night as overnight lows drop into the mid 60s and lower to mid 70s, especially Thursday night and Friday night. Also, humidity levels will remain elevated with dew points mostly in the lower to mid 60s. No record high temperatures are expected to be set during this time, however with overnight temperatures remaining elevated a few locations may set record high minimum temperatures Thursday, and possibly Saturday.
The peak of the heat wave and high heat indices will be occurring as the transition from spring to summer occurs, with the solstice Thursday, June 20th at 446 PM EDT. There is a chance that temperatures do not reach the forecast highs Friday with the possibility of increased cloud cover, and the chance of thunderstorms, especially across the northern tier. And desi is now showing a 90% chance of heat indices reaching 95 or higher only across portions of northeastern New Jersey. And then with additional thunderstorms Saturday desi is showing that northeastern New Jersey will be more marginal for reaching advisory criteria. So for now advisory headlines may be extended into Thursday for just about all of the forecast area, and then possibly for a portion of the area Friday and Saturday.

With the intense heat and high humidity it is important to take precautions to protect one's health, particularly those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration.

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure off the coast will remain in place through Sunday.

SE-S flow 8-12 kt should diminish this evening and veer more S overnight. S-SW winds then increase to 5-10 kt Mon morning and then to around 10 kt with G15-20kt at the metro and coastal terminals by 16Z Mon.

Still a chance of some low stratus development with IFR cigs in and around the NYC Metro area overnight. Confidence remains low to medium and so have continued mention via TEMPO, generally from about 06Z-10Z but possibly as early as 03Z. Any low stratus should clear to VFR before the morning push.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low to medium confidence in low stratus development overnight with IFR cig potential.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday afternoon and night...Mainly VFR. S-SW winds G20-25kt, diminishing during the evening.

Tuesday through Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
With high pressure remaining in control, sub SCA conditions are expected on all waters through the end of the week.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A moderate risk of rip currents at the ocean beaches continues through Tuesday with a southerly flow, and southeast to south swells.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ067>070.
NJ...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

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Belleville
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Sun -- 01:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:14 AM EDT     4.74 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:36 AM EDT     1.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:04 PM EDT     5.50 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Belleville, Passaic River, New Jersey, Tide feet

Bayonne Bridge
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Sun -- 12:57 AM EDT     1.33 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:09 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:03 AM EDT     -1.14 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:01 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:31 PM EDT     1.47 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:00 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:03 PM EDT     -1.22 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:37 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bayonne Bridge, Kill van Kull, New York Current, knots

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