Sunrise 5:10 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 12:38 AM   Moonset 9:39 AM

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LMZ346 Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 1032 Pm Edt Tue May 28 2024
Overnight - North wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - North wind 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday night - Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - North wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 290204 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1004 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering showers/storms this evening in central lower MI.

- Chances of frost Wednesday night and possibly Thursday night.

- Wetter weather may return this weekend.

UPDATE
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Current forecast largely remains on track as showers continue to dissipate across southern portions of the area this evening. As mentioned in the short term, PoPs continue to be cut back from the area as confidence decreases in additional showers later tonight into Wednesday morning. Otherwise, dry weather is in store for northern Michigan through the end of this week -- and perhaps through the weekend as well.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 341 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Synopsis/pattern: cool advection continues, behind low pressure departing eastern Canada. Primary digging shortwave heads for southern Lake MI this evening. A trailing upper trof drops south toward upper MI late Wednesday.

Forecast: Deep convection has developed this afternoon over central and southern lower MI, away from the lake shadow of Superior and northern Lake MI. Some showers also developed just ne of the Sault in Ontario, which are scraping by part of Drummond Isl. These will continue into this evening, before fading as diurnal heat is lost. However, the incoming shortwave will result in somewhat steeper mid-level lapse rates. That will support convection a little longer than one would normally expect.

As we move later into tonight, our deeper flow will veer more north to ne, behind the departing wave. Recent RAP/HRRR runs allow some of the convection now along the north shore of Lk Huron to become elevated, and then migrate south and then sw- ward, back toward northern lower MI later tonight. This feels like an odd thing to have happen, and will not have pops late tonight except near Saginaw Bay.

Min temps from near 40f north to near 50f se.

High pressure builds south from Canada toward the northern Great Lakes on Wednesday. Much drier air comes with it. Skies will clear from n to s during the day. Pretty aggressively mixed out dew points in the afternoon, using NBM10% as a starting point (though did raise that by a bit given we are greened-up). RH bottom out around 25% in ne lower MI, though north winds will remain light.

Max temps 60-70f.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 341 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Current weak shortwave troughing with lingering showers continue to pivot towards the northeast while midlevel longwave ridging builds over the western half of the CONUS. Surface high pressure attached to aformentioned ridging will return a quiet weather pattern to the Great Lakes Region for the first half of the long term period.

Mid-level ridging attached to surface high pressure will occupy the CWA for the remainder of the work week (Thursday, Friday and even most of Saturday). Mid-level low currently over the Gulf of Alaska will progress towards the midwest (while weakening) this week and return chances of showers by the Saturday evening/Sunday timeframe. Mid-level heights transition to a quasi-zonal flow pattern with embedded disturbances spanned across the northern half of the U.S and thus continuing chances of precip through the remainder of the forecast period.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

Chances of frost Wednesday night and possibly Thursday night.
Otherwise; high pressure and quiet weather expected through the work week. Not much in the discussion in terms of "active weather". Only main concern is the return of frost chances Wednesday night and possibly Thursday night. Surface high pressure will quickly dry out atmospheric moisture this Wednesday. With clear skies and low dew points, overnight radiational cooling will allow for overnight lows to drop to the mid/upper 30s for most areas. Main concern for frost in interior northern lower as localized areas could drop to near freezing and thus creating frost during the early growing season for northern Michigan. Same concerns continue Thursday night but guidance hints at atmospheric moisture trending upwards slightly during the day Thursday.

Conditions turn towards a wetter pattern this weekend as showers and storms return: Showers return to the region towards the end of the week ad midlevel troughing passes the upper Midwest. Pockets of quiet weather and even sunshine can still be expected this weekend and early next week, but mid-level height disturbances will keep chances of showers in the forecast, especially this Monday and guidance is hinting at a more convective setup as a shortwave transitions across the CWA

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 737 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conditions are expected across northern Michigan through the duration of the TAF period as afternoon showers continue to diminish near Saginaw Bay. N/NNE winds around 5kts are expected to continue overnight before increasing to around 10 kts by Wednesday afternoon.
Gusts to 15-20 kts will be possible at times into the early evening hours.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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