Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Deer Trail, CO
July 3, 2024 3:28 AM MDT (09:28 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:35 AM Sunset 8:31 PM Moonrise 3:03 AM Moonset 6:58 PM |
Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KBOU 030602 AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1202 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A few storms across the east central plains overnight.
- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across the plains Wednesday afternoon/evening.
- Gorgeous weather conditions are expected on the Fourth of July.
UPDATE
Issued at 759 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Better low level moisture and instability exist across Elbert and Lincoln counties this evening. In addition there is an upper level jet over the area as well. Thus it appears there will be some potential for nocturnal tstm activity overnight. Mid level flow is decent along with favorable shear, so may see a few stronger storms with an isold svr storm possible as well across ern Elbert and Lincoln counties.
SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/
Issued at 226 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
A few weak storms have attempted to develop over Elbert County so far this afternoon. MLCAPE values are rather low with SPC mesoanalysis showing < 200 J/kg across the Palmer Divide and far east plains. The mentioned areas will be more favored for showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, chances will be low (< 20%) with lacking moisture and instability.
Tomorrow will be warmer with temperatures warming aloft. Highs rise into the upper 80s to low 90s across the plains and 60s/70s for the high country. A dryline sets up across the plains likely east of Denver County from Morgan County southward through Adams/Arapahoe Counties with 50s dewpoints on the east side. On the west side of the boundary, across the urban corridor and high country, it will be well-mixed and therefore dry at the surface. Breezy conditions combined with RH < 17% in the afternoon may result in periods of elevated fire weather conditions for the urban corridor and higher elevations.
Focusing back to the other side of the dryline, we will also have a favorable environment for severe thunderstorms. An upper jet and the passage of an upper shortwave trough will provide lift. Higher instability will follow the dryline with the higher values on the east side where the better moisture is. HRRR mean CAPE values range 800-2000 J/kg with the higher values further east. 0-6km bulk shear values will be in favorable ranges as well with means 30-40 kts.
This will favor a large hail and damaging wind threat for severe strength storms that may develop. The higher threat will be again east of the dryline as storms will likely initiate along this boundary in the afternoon. High-res CAMs show general agreement with segments of storms initiating on the boundary toward mid- afternoon. There are subtle differences between individual solutions on how far east/west it initiates on the plains, but this is all likely reliant on where that dryline sets up tomorrow.
LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Tuesday/
Issued at 226 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Strong upper level high will be centered along the California coast Thursday (4th of July). This will produce a northwest flow aloft across Colorado. The upper level high will very slowly progress eastward this weekend and into early next week. Only making it to Nevada on Tuesday. Over the past several days, models have been too progressive with this high moving eastward, thus the temperature forecast has been on the high side. Flow aloft over Colorado will remain northwesterly through the weekend. As the high slowly nears Colorado, flow aloft becomes more northerly.
Now for the detail...For Wednesday evening/night, some lingering thunderstorms will be possible into the evening before they shift off to the east. Then a cold front pushes south through the area overnight Wednesday and brings cooler air for the 4th of July.
Highs will be on the cool side with readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Airmass will dry and be fairly stable. Can't rule out some weak storms over the Palmer Divide and nearby plains late in the day. Much of the same is expected for Friday with another cool and mainly dry day. May see breezy conditions Thursday over the higher terrain, but winds Friday look weaker.
For the weekend, a weak trough embedded in the northwest flow aloft will move into Wyoming Saturday. Ridging ahead of this, is expected to bring warmer temperatures with highs around 90F. With dry air staying in place and warming aloft, chances for showers and storms will be very low.
The upper level trough moves across the region Saturday night. A cold front associated with this system also pushes south through the area Saturday night. This will bring cooler temperatures for Sunday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The northeast winds behind the front may increase moisture, enough for isolated/scattered showers and storms. Models show a slight increase in moisture, but nothing great with precipitable water values at or slightly below normal.
For Monday and Tuesday, flow aloft becomes more northerly as the high inches closer to Colorado. Expect temperatures to slowly increase each day as the warm air under the high begins to filter into the state. Chances for showers and storms still look low, with precipitable water values at or below normal.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday/
Issued at 1158 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
VFR through the TAF period. A few weak TS/SHRA have developed near the terminals but will be short-lived as they drift northeastward into a more stable airmass. Winds over the next few hours will be light and variable before transitioning to drainage flow.
West-northwesterly flow is expected to develop again at BJC and likely at DEN by late morning/early afternoon. Don't think we'll see nearly as strong of gusts but a few 20-25kt gusts are possible, especially for BJC. At APA, guidance is split on whether the northwest winds will make it or not, and they may just bounce back and forth between a variable and northwest wind. There is a low chance that convection east of the terminals could throw out an outflow boundary.
A cold front is expected to arrive around 06z Thursday with stronger north winds behind it.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1202 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A few storms across the east central plains overnight.
- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across the plains Wednesday afternoon/evening.
- Gorgeous weather conditions are expected on the Fourth of July.
UPDATE
Issued at 759 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Better low level moisture and instability exist across Elbert and Lincoln counties this evening. In addition there is an upper level jet over the area as well. Thus it appears there will be some potential for nocturnal tstm activity overnight. Mid level flow is decent along with favorable shear, so may see a few stronger storms with an isold svr storm possible as well across ern Elbert and Lincoln counties.
SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/
Issued at 226 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
A few weak storms have attempted to develop over Elbert County so far this afternoon. MLCAPE values are rather low with SPC mesoanalysis showing < 200 J/kg across the Palmer Divide and far east plains. The mentioned areas will be more favored for showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, chances will be low (< 20%) with lacking moisture and instability.
Tomorrow will be warmer with temperatures warming aloft. Highs rise into the upper 80s to low 90s across the plains and 60s/70s for the high country. A dryline sets up across the plains likely east of Denver County from Morgan County southward through Adams/Arapahoe Counties with 50s dewpoints on the east side. On the west side of the boundary, across the urban corridor and high country, it will be well-mixed and therefore dry at the surface. Breezy conditions combined with RH < 17% in the afternoon may result in periods of elevated fire weather conditions for the urban corridor and higher elevations.
Focusing back to the other side of the dryline, we will also have a favorable environment for severe thunderstorms. An upper jet and the passage of an upper shortwave trough will provide lift. Higher instability will follow the dryline with the higher values on the east side where the better moisture is. HRRR mean CAPE values range 800-2000 J/kg with the higher values further east. 0-6km bulk shear values will be in favorable ranges as well with means 30-40 kts.
This will favor a large hail and damaging wind threat for severe strength storms that may develop. The higher threat will be again east of the dryline as storms will likely initiate along this boundary in the afternoon. High-res CAMs show general agreement with segments of storms initiating on the boundary toward mid- afternoon. There are subtle differences between individual solutions on how far east/west it initiates on the plains, but this is all likely reliant on where that dryline sets up tomorrow.
LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Tuesday/
Issued at 226 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Strong upper level high will be centered along the California coast Thursday (4th of July). This will produce a northwest flow aloft across Colorado. The upper level high will very slowly progress eastward this weekend and into early next week. Only making it to Nevada on Tuesday. Over the past several days, models have been too progressive with this high moving eastward, thus the temperature forecast has been on the high side. Flow aloft over Colorado will remain northwesterly through the weekend. As the high slowly nears Colorado, flow aloft becomes more northerly.
Now for the detail...For Wednesday evening/night, some lingering thunderstorms will be possible into the evening before they shift off to the east. Then a cold front pushes south through the area overnight Wednesday and brings cooler air for the 4th of July.
Highs will be on the cool side with readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Airmass will dry and be fairly stable. Can't rule out some weak storms over the Palmer Divide and nearby plains late in the day. Much of the same is expected for Friday with another cool and mainly dry day. May see breezy conditions Thursday over the higher terrain, but winds Friday look weaker.
For the weekend, a weak trough embedded in the northwest flow aloft will move into Wyoming Saturday. Ridging ahead of this, is expected to bring warmer temperatures with highs around 90F. With dry air staying in place and warming aloft, chances for showers and storms will be very low.
The upper level trough moves across the region Saturday night. A cold front associated with this system also pushes south through the area Saturday night. This will bring cooler temperatures for Sunday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The northeast winds behind the front may increase moisture, enough for isolated/scattered showers and storms. Models show a slight increase in moisture, but nothing great with precipitable water values at or slightly below normal.
For Monday and Tuesday, flow aloft becomes more northerly as the high inches closer to Colorado. Expect temperatures to slowly increase each day as the warm air under the high begins to filter into the state. Chances for showers and storms still look low, with precipitable water values at or below normal.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday/
Issued at 1158 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
VFR through the TAF period. A few weak TS/SHRA have developed near the terminals but will be short-lived as they drift northeastward into a more stable airmass. Winds over the next few hours will be light and variable before transitioning to drainage flow.
West-northwesterly flow is expected to develop again at BJC and likely at DEN by late morning/early afternoon. Don't think we'll see nearly as strong of gusts but a few 20-25kt gusts are possible, especially for BJC. At APA, guidance is split on whether the northwest winds will make it or not, and they may just bounce back and forth between a variable and northwest wind. There is a low chance that convection east of the terminals could throw out an outflow boundary.
A cold front is expected to arrive around 06z Thursday with stronger north winds behind it.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KFTG
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KFTG
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KFTG
Wind History graph: FTG
(wind in knots)
Denver/Boulder, CO,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE