Sunrise 5:35 AM   Sunset 8:32 PM Moonrise 2:00 AM   Moonset 3:24 PM

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ANZ636 York River- 348 Pm Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Through 7 pm - SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A slight chance of showers. Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers after midnight. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Mon night - S winds 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop. Showers and tstms likely in the evening. Tue - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Tue night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Wed - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 348 Pm Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
on and off showers and Thunderstorms are expected through at least midweek, with the best chances for storms over the marine area being Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Expecting benign marine conditions outside of any Thunderstorms.

FXUS61 KCTP 021857 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 257 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
*Isolated showers and a stray thunderstorm possible this afternoon with partly sunny skies and pleasant humidity.
*Hit and miss showers and thunderstorms expected Monday and Tuesday as temperatures and humidity ramp up.
*More widespread rain on Wednesday and Thursday precedes a cooler weekend with scattered PM showers/storms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Seeing more sunshine than initially expected this afternoon, especially across the central mountains and eastern parts of the Commonwealth, likely as a result of paltry moisture advection.
Isolated showers evident on radar and expect this activity to continue this afternoon as PWATS very slowly rise to between 1.25 and 1.5 inches by this evening. A rumble of thunder can't be ruled out from isolated/embedded low- topped TSRA this afternoon, but MLCAPE is basically non-existent in PA at this point. RAP profiles indicate some potential for a couple hundred J/kg this afternoon, which is the only place I've kept the chance for thunder in the forecast.

High temps this afternoon (before any -SHRA move in from the west) will vary from the upper 60s to low 70s across the higher terrain of Northern and Western PA to around 80 in the Southeast. Surging dewpoints overnight will be a sign of more moisture in the air. For locations that get precipitation today and see some clearing overnight, patchy fog will be possible.
Low confidence in fog coverage based on uncertainty with overnight cloud cover, but can't rule out some instances of valley fog on Monday morning. Lows will range from the mid 50s in the northwest to low 60s southeast.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Building upper level ridge to 580dm should favor lower POPs Mon-Tue. However, the airmass will be trending warmer and more humid with just a bubble of weak sfc high pressure drifting from Lake Ontario on Monday to the New England Coast by early Tuesday. As a result, we can't rule out spotty diurnally driven convection. Have gone with isolated wording for shower/storm potential as pinning down the exact location of storms is difficult in this type of pattern. Expect most locations to stay dry for a majority of the time. Storms will have slow and unconventional storm motion with weak steering flow. Storms likely drift southward on Monday and northwestward on Tuesday.

High temps both Monday will range from the mid 70s across the highest elevations of the North and West to the low- mid 80s in the Southern Valleys. Monday night will be another mild night with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s and patchy valley fog.
Tuesday trends a bit warmer by a few degrees areawide.

The next notable chance for rain arrives on Wednesday afternoon as a low pressure system drifting across the Great Lakes helps bring surging Gulf Coast moisture into the northeast. Increasing clouds on Wednesday will keep temperatures in check with highs most likely in the mid 70s to low 80s. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase into Wednesday evening.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Low pressure passing well to the north of the state in the latter part of the week will push a cold or occluded front thru most likely on Thursday. The upper feature driving this sfc feature is a deepening closed low. The weak moisture plume in advance of the front will result in mainly light precip. If we can manage to break into the warm sector, we should have some thunder Wed night and Thursday. Ensemble plumes suggest most likely areal average rainfall Wed- Thu is around a half inch with near zero chances of 1"/24hrs time (20pct). After the front passes, the rest of the long range period will be dominated by the big closed low. It is almost cutoff, but does inch eastward with time. Some guidance (incl Op GFS) has the center of the upper low cross NY/PA over the weekend. That would make a very showery time with mainly aftn TS/SHRA and limited heating.
However, 8H temps won't be too chilly, running just one std dev to the left (colder) for June.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR cigs starting to occur over the west where precip is almost to the ground at JST and BFD. Such sparse radar returns, meager forcing, and low moisture plume riding overhead bends the forecast to a mainly dry time, but certainly worth at least a VCSH mention for the next 12 hrs in the west. The forcing slides to the east by 06Z. Will hold onto the MVFR cigs in the west and introduce them to UNV/AOO/IPT around 00Z. Fog and IFR CIGS will be possible late in the west mainly due to the westerly flow just aloft and the resultant upslope overnight. Since there won't be much rainfall and the ground won't be all that wet, visbys lower than 1SM are unlikely (40%) for the western terminals, and less than 20% chc at all other terminals tonight.
Will mention 1-2SM at AOO and UNV just to put forth the idea that it is not out of the envelope of solutions.

Sunrise should improve any sub-VFR conditions at the central and eastern terminals. However, the western sites will take a couple of hours to rise to MVFR. Shortwave ridging overhead should cap the cu around 8kft in the NW and 12-15kft in the SE on Monday. The instability and left over moisture could pop a SHRA or two, but they won't become too numerous, staying sct or isold, and mainly in the east/SE where the best of the heat and leftover mstr will be. There is the possibility (10%) for a TSRA at MDT or IPT afternoon. Have kept mentions of TS out for this pkg given that the possibility is so low and generally after 18Z Mon.

Outlook...

Tue...AM fog/IFR possible SE. Otherwise, no sig wx.
Wed...Sct SHRA/TSRA with restrictions possible PM.
Wed night-Thurs...CFROPA with numerous SHRA/TSRA. Flight restrictions likely (70%). IFR possible (30%).
Friday...AM fog poss, isold-sct PM SHRA/TSRA.

CLIMATE
Prelim May and Spring 2024 Temperature & Precipitation Rankings

Harrisburg: T12th warmest; 76th driest May T3rd warmest; 33rd wettest Spring

Williamsport: 9th warmest; 22nd wettest May 4th warmest; 11th wettest Spring

Altoona: 9th warmest; 13th wettest May 2nd warmest; 3rd wettest Spring

Bradford: 4th warmest; 36th driest May Warmest; 21st wettest Spring

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Roane Point
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Sun -- 01:54 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:48 AM EDT     2.66 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:57 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:22 PM EDT     3.32 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Roane Point, York River, Virginia, Tide feet

Allmondsville
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:11 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:05 AM EDT     2.71 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:14 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:39 PM EDT     3.38 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Allmondsville, York River, Virginia, Tide feet

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