Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New London, CT
June 14, 2024 8:32 AM EDT (12:32 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:12 AM Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 1:11 PM Moonset 1:09 AM |
ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 536 Am Edt Fri Jun 14 2024
Today - SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers until late afternoon. Slight chance of tstms early this afternoon, then chance of showers and tstms late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this afternoon.
Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely with chance of tstms in the evening, then showers and chance of tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 536 Am Edt Fri Jun 14 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A cold front will move through the area this evening with high pressure building in from the northwest behind it. High pressure becomes centered over the area Sunday morning and moves offshore by Sunday evening. The high remains in control through late next week.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 141132 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 732 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front will move through the area this evening with high pressure building in from the northwest behind it. High pressure becomes centered over the area Sunday morning and moves offshore by Sunday evening. The high remains in control through late next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The forecast remains on track this morning. A few isolated showers have popped up just south of Long Island, so have continued the slight chance of showers for early this morning.
This activity will likely be confined to Long Island.
High pressure has now shifted well offshore as a cold front approaches from the west. The front is currently over the Great Lakes and approaching western NY as the associated surface low tracks through southeast Canada. Aloft, multiple shortwave troughs are rotating around the broader trough over the northeast US.
We are still on track to potentially see strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The latest SPC outlook remains similar to the previous outlook. NYC north and west are in a slight risk and the rest of the area is in a marginal risk.
Before any potential severe weather, showers will be possible early this morning, mainly across Long Island. This looks to be associated with weak warm advection ahead of a midlevel shortwave. Then, multiple CAMs show some convective activity entering the Lower Hudson Valley by mid morning. This activity looks to spark up north and west of our area associated with a weak shortwave that will pass north of us and a pre-frontal trough. Not too confident in this activity and although thunder is possible, any storms will likely stay below severe limits.
Later this afternoon into the evening is the most likely timing of any severe weather as a stronger shortwave approaches aloft as well as a cold front at the surface. A moist southerly flow will bring dewpoints into the upper 60s by the afternoon and mostly sunny skies will help bring surface temperatures up to the mid to upper 80s for most. This will result in SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg for NYC north and west. 0-6 km shear is expected to max out around 35 to 40 kt, also for NYC north and west. This environment can support severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. While discrete convection cannot be ruled out, the most likely form will be clusters or a broken line. Given the moist environment and skinny CAPE profile, heavy rain is also possible in any showers or thunderstorms. See hydrology section below. It is possible the severe threat becomes limited by any activity that happens earlier in the day and will depend on if/when that occurs and if we can destabilize after that. The severe threat is also lower across eastern areas as the storms will likely weaken as they reach the marine environment as is usual this time of the year.
The area will likely be dry by the early morning hours on Saturday.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
After an active Friday, the weekend is expected to feature plenty of sunshine and quiet weather. High pressure slowly builds in behind the departing cold front as heights rise aloft with an upper level ridge building over the eastern US. The airmass that will build in will be cooler and drier. Dewpoints will be in the 40s and 50s both days, withs highs in the 70s to low 80s. This will give the air a comfortable feel. We could actually drop to the upper 40s at the usual cool spots Saturday night as radiational cooling conditions look ideal.
The center of the high moves offshore by Sunday evening and a return flow sets up.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
**Key Points**
* Increasing confidence in a prolonged heat wave mid to late next week. Heat indices may approach or exceed 100F at times, especially Wednesday through Friday.
* Heat indices greater than 90 are expected as early as Tuesday, gradually expanding and increasing through the end of the week.
Surface high pressure gradually shifts overhead and offshore on late Sunday as a large mid and upper level ridge continues to build over the Eastern CONUS. The surface high pressure positions itself over the Western Atlantic, allowing for a persistent southwest to south flow over the area, advecting both lower level moisture and warm air into the area.
The building ridge amplifies further into the middle to end of the week, allowing for the development of a close to 600dm ridge over the Northeast US and SE Canada. A ridge of this strength for mid- late June over the area would be highly anomalous, though there still remains uncertainty as to how strong it becomes.
Temperatures at 850mb from Tuesday through at least Friday will be 18-21C allowing for surface temperatures to reach into the 90s and possibly approaching 100 degrees toward the end of the week for western portions of the area away from the immediate coastline. Heat indices may be slightly higher given a SW/S flow advecting higher moisture into the area. While details as to the extent of the heat will come into focus as we approach early next week, this will very likely be the first heat wave of the season with heat headlines eventually being needed for at least a portion of the area.
Given the potential duration of the heat, it'll be important to take precautions to protect one's health, particularly those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Some heat-sensitive industries and infrastructure will likely be impacted by the extent of this heat as well.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A cold front approaches from the NW today, preceded by a prefrontal trough. Both will make their way through the area in the afternoon and through the evening.
VFR expected through this afternoon. MVFR or lower conditions are likely with any showers and/or thunderstorms today and tonight. Best chance of TSRA 18-22Z Friday at KSWF, 21-01Z across the city terminals, and 22-02Z at the eastern terminals. There is a low chance of earlier SHRA or TSRA for KSWF between 17-19Z. Heavy rain and gusty winds possible in any TSRA. SHRA continue Friday night through 6Z. Cigs may drop to MVFR or lower for a period before the Saturday morning push.
S/SW winds 10-15kt today. Stronger winds are possible in vicinity of TSRA this afternoon and evening. Wind direction could also become tricky in the afternoon as the pre-frontal trough moves into the area.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
A line of SHRA with possible embedded TSRA may move past the area 16-19Z, but should remain north of the NYC terminals.
The main band of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could vary by 1-2 hours. There also could be a few random showers and thunderstorms ahead of this main band in the afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday through Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
A southerly flow will occasionally gust up to 25 kt this afternoon, otherwise winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA conditions through early next week.
There is potential for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with the possibility of some being strong to severe.
HYDROLOGY
The entire area is now in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall.
Expecting mostly minor urban poor drainage flooding, but localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out. Although rain will be heavy at times, the progressive nature of the thunderstorms is expected to keep flooding more minor. Probabilities of seeing 1 inch in 1 hour remain low. Average storm total rainfall amounts will be between half an inch and 1 inch, with locally higher amounts possible.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There is a high risk for rip current development along Atlantic facing beaches today with southerly flow 15 to 20 kt along the shoreline and surf up to 4 ft expected.
Conditions begin to improve by Saturday, with a moderate risk forecast as winds shift offshore.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 732 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front will move through the area this evening with high pressure building in from the northwest behind it. High pressure becomes centered over the area Sunday morning and moves offshore by Sunday evening. The high remains in control through late next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The forecast remains on track this morning. A few isolated showers have popped up just south of Long Island, so have continued the slight chance of showers for early this morning.
This activity will likely be confined to Long Island.
High pressure has now shifted well offshore as a cold front approaches from the west. The front is currently over the Great Lakes and approaching western NY as the associated surface low tracks through southeast Canada. Aloft, multiple shortwave troughs are rotating around the broader trough over the northeast US.
We are still on track to potentially see strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The latest SPC outlook remains similar to the previous outlook. NYC north and west are in a slight risk and the rest of the area is in a marginal risk.
Before any potential severe weather, showers will be possible early this morning, mainly across Long Island. This looks to be associated with weak warm advection ahead of a midlevel shortwave. Then, multiple CAMs show some convective activity entering the Lower Hudson Valley by mid morning. This activity looks to spark up north and west of our area associated with a weak shortwave that will pass north of us and a pre-frontal trough. Not too confident in this activity and although thunder is possible, any storms will likely stay below severe limits.
Later this afternoon into the evening is the most likely timing of any severe weather as a stronger shortwave approaches aloft as well as a cold front at the surface. A moist southerly flow will bring dewpoints into the upper 60s by the afternoon and mostly sunny skies will help bring surface temperatures up to the mid to upper 80s for most. This will result in SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg for NYC north and west. 0-6 km shear is expected to max out around 35 to 40 kt, also for NYC north and west. This environment can support severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. While discrete convection cannot be ruled out, the most likely form will be clusters or a broken line. Given the moist environment and skinny CAPE profile, heavy rain is also possible in any showers or thunderstorms. See hydrology section below. It is possible the severe threat becomes limited by any activity that happens earlier in the day and will depend on if/when that occurs and if we can destabilize after that. The severe threat is also lower across eastern areas as the storms will likely weaken as they reach the marine environment as is usual this time of the year.
The area will likely be dry by the early morning hours on Saturday.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
After an active Friday, the weekend is expected to feature plenty of sunshine and quiet weather. High pressure slowly builds in behind the departing cold front as heights rise aloft with an upper level ridge building over the eastern US. The airmass that will build in will be cooler and drier. Dewpoints will be in the 40s and 50s both days, withs highs in the 70s to low 80s. This will give the air a comfortable feel. We could actually drop to the upper 40s at the usual cool spots Saturday night as radiational cooling conditions look ideal.
The center of the high moves offshore by Sunday evening and a return flow sets up.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
**Key Points**
* Increasing confidence in a prolonged heat wave mid to late next week. Heat indices may approach or exceed 100F at times, especially Wednesday through Friday.
* Heat indices greater than 90 are expected as early as Tuesday, gradually expanding and increasing through the end of the week.
Surface high pressure gradually shifts overhead and offshore on late Sunday as a large mid and upper level ridge continues to build over the Eastern CONUS. The surface high pressure positions itself over the Western Atlantic, allowing for a persistent southwest to south flow over the area, advecting both lower level moisture and warm air into the area.
The building ridge amplifies further into the middle to end of the week, allowing for the development of a close to 600dm ridge over the Northeast US and SE Canada. A ridge of this strength for mid- late June over the area would be highly anomalous, though there still remains uncertainty as to how strong it becomes.
Temperatures at 850mb from Tuesday through at least Friday will be 18-21C allowing for surface temperatures to reach into the 90s and possibly approaching 100 degrees toward the end of the week for western portions of the area away from the immediate coastline. Heat indices may be slightly higher given a SW/S flow advecting higher moisture into the area. While details as to the extent of the heat will come into focus as we approach early next week, this will very likely be the first heat wave of the season with heat headlines eventually being needed for at least a portion of the area.
Given the potential duration of the heat, it'll be important to take precautions to protect one's health, particularly those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Some heat-sensitive industries and infrastructure will likely be impacted by the extent of this heat as well.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A cold front approaches from the NW today, preceded by a prefrontal trough. Both will make their way through the area in the afternoon and through the evening.
VFR expected through this afternoon. MVFR or lower conditions are likely with any showers and/or thunderstorms today and tonight. Best chance of TSRA 18-22Z Friday at KSWF, 21-01Z across the city terminals, and 22-02Z at the eastern terminals. There is a low chance of earlier SHRA or TSRA for KSWF between 17-19Z. Heavy rain and gusty winds possible in any TSRA. SHRA continue Friday night through 6Z. Cigs may drop to MVFR or lower for a period before the Saturday morning push.
S/SW winds 10-15kt today. Stronger winds are possible in vicinity of TSRA this afternoon and evening. Wind direction could also become tricky in the afternoon as the pre-frontal trough moves into the area.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
A line of SHRA with possible embedded TSRA may move past the area 16-19Z, but should remain north of the NYC terminals.
The main band of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could vary by 1-2 hours. There also could be a few random showers and thunderstorms ahead of this main band in the afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday through Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
A southerly flow will occasionally gust up to 25 kt this afternoon, otherwise winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA conditions through early next week.
There is potential for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with the possibility of some being strong to severe.
HYDROLOGY
The entire area is now in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall.
Expecting mostly minor urban poor drainage flooding, but localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out. Although rain will be heavy at times, the progressive nature of the thunderstorms is expected to keep flooding more minor. Probabilities of seeing 1 inch in 1 hour remain low. Average storm total rainfall amounts will be between half an inch and 1 inch, with locally higher amounts possible.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There is a high risk for rip current development along Atlantic facing beaches today with southerly flow 15 to 20 kt along the shoreline and surf up to 4 ft expected.
Conditions begin to improve by Saturday, with a moderate risk forecast as winds shift offshore.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| NLHC3 | 8 mi | 45 min | 72°F | 77°F | 29.91 | |||
| MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY | 17 mi | 45 min | 66°F | 65°F | 29.87 | |||
| NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT | 42 mi | 45 min | SW 6G | 68°F | 65°F | 29.92 | ||
| PDVR1 | 44 mi | 45 min | S 9.9G | 70°F | 29.90 | 61°F | ||
| QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI | 44 mi | 45 min | SW 14G | 69°F | 29.92 | |||
| NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI | 45 mi | 45 min | SSW 9.9G | 66°F | 66°F | 29.93 | ||
| NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI | 48 mi | 108 min | WNW 6 | 67°F | 29.92 | 63°F | ||
| PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI | 48 mi | 45 min | WSW 5.1G | 69°F | 29.93 | |||
| PRUR1 | 49 mi | 45 min | 67°F | 63°F |
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Wind History graph: GON
(wind in knots)Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Little Gull Island, Long Island, New York, Tide feet
The Race
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:10 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:09 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT First Quarter
Fri -- 02:50 AM EDT 1.76 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:14 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:09 AM EDT -2.20 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:25 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:10 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 03:16 PM EDT 2.02 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:43 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:22 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 09:44 PM EDT -2.27 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:10 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:09 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT First Quarter
Fri -- 02:50 AM EDT 1.76 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:14 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:09 AM EDT -2.20 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:25 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:10 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 03:16 PM EDT 2.02 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:43 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:22 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 09:44 PM EDT -2.27 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.2 |
| 1 am |
| 0.8 |
| 2 am |
| 1.6 |
| 3 am |
| 1.8 |
| 4 am |
| 1.5 |
| 5 am |
| 0.9 |
| 6 am |
| 0.1 |
| 7 am |
| -0.9 |
| 8 am |
| -1.8 |
| 9 am |
| -2.2 |
| 10 am |
| -2 |
| 11 am |
| -1.3 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 2 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 8 pm |
| -1.4 |
| 9 pm |
| -2.1 |
| 10 pm |
| -2.2 |
| 11 pm |
| -1.8 |
Upton, NY,
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