Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for George, TX
July 3, 2024 3:24 PM CDT (20:24 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:31 AM Sunset 8:38 PM Moonrise 3:06 AM Moonset 5:59 PM |
Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX
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FXUS64 KEWX 031915 AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 215 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
A flat E-W oriented subtropical ridge runs from East TX to GA today with the western periphery over South Central TX. Light onshore flow is broad and deep from the surface to 500 hPa, but the lightness of the low level winds is helping keep low level moisture content mixed with the drier layers aloft. The pattern will not change significantly during the short term period. The upper ridge will continue to dominate keeping the forecast rain free.
High temperatures tomorrow will be in the upper 90s to 103. Heat indices should be mainly in the 100 to 105 range over most of the area on the 4th of July holiday, but a pocket of 105-108 degree heat index will be possible east of I-35. Thus no Heat Advisories are projected at this time. Even lighter winds are projected for Thursday night, and this could result in min temps falling another degree or two.
LONG TERM
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
An upper level low advancing across the northern plains into the Great Lakes region on Friday helps to send a cold front southward into north-central Texas before stalling. Any outflow advancing out ahead of the front will help to promote low end rain chances across our northern counties on Friday and into more of our region during Saturday. Rainfall chances are likely to be highest through the afternoon hours with daytime heating. The outflow and area rain is likely to help to impact and lower temperatures slightly across the area as well. Rainfall through Saturday is not associated with Beryl, which we address Beryl and beyond down below.
The focus of the forecast for Sunday into next week turns to the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and what Hurricane Beryl ends up doing track and strength wise. The latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center has the cone of uncertainty entering our southern counties by the end of the current 5 day forecast. However, there does remain considerable uncertainty within the forecast in the Day 5 to 7 time frame as models struggle with the intensity and eventual track of Beryl as it interacts with a weakening upper level ridge to our east across the Southeastern CONUS, upper level troughing over the central plains, and a weak TUTT (Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough) preceding the storm in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that is forecast to induce some wind shear onto the storm. Even once Beryl makes landfall, we'll also need to monitor for any additional interactions with potentially the frontal boundary located to our north or invest 96L as it approaches/enters the Western Gulf of Mexico itself.
We want to re-iterate that at this time frame still 5+ days out we should not focus on any one deterministic model run, but focus on ensemble data and the official forecast from the Hurricane Center.
There will remain high uncertainty on the eventual track of Beryl and the intensity as it makes it to the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
We hope to have more confidence on the track/strength/impacts later this week. One thing we are sure of is to stress to anyone traveling to the beach for the the 4th of July, that increased swells and the risk for rip currents increase by the end of the week into the weekend. Due to the uncertain track, confidence in rainfall amounts across the area in association with Beryl and after Beryl within the next 7 days, remains very low. Kept the NBM on temperatures in the Day 5 to 7 range where values are lower with the influence of the potential for greater cloud chances and rain chances across the region. All interests across our area should continue to check back frequently for future updates.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
High pressure aloft will not change much over the next 24 hours and this means the low level winds will be light and well decoupled at night. A few pockets of MVFR cigs could result again along the I-35 terminals, but the rest of the TAFS should be VFR. A few midday gusts to near 20 knots are possible in the midday and early afternoon hours.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 79 101 78 100 / 0 0 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 100 76 99 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 77 101 76 100 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 77 99 76 98 / 0 0 0 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 81 104 81 103 / 0 0 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 77 99 77 98 / 0 0 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 76 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 97 76 98 / 0 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 100 77 100 / 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 77 101 77 101 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 215 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
A flat E-W oriented subtropical ridge runs from East TX to GA today with the western periphery over South Central TX. Light onshore flow is broad and deep from the surface to 500 hPa, but the lightness of the low level winds is helping keep low level moisture content mixed with the drier layers aloft. The pattern will not change significantly during the short term period. The upper ridge will continue to dominate keeping the forecast rain free.
High temperatures tomorrow will be in the upper 90s to 103. Heat indices should be mainly in the 100 to 105 range over most of the area on the 4th of July holiday, but a pocket of 105-108 degree heat index will be possible east of I-35. Thus no Heat Advisories are projected at this time. Even lighter winds are projected for Thursday night, and this could result in min temps falling another degree or two.
LONG TERM
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
An upper level low advancing across the northern plains into the Great Lakes region on Friday helps to send a cold front southward into north-central Texas before stalling. Any outflow advancing out ahead of the front will help to promote low end rain chances across our northern counties on Friday and into more of our region during Saturday. Rainfall chances are likely to be highest through the afternoon hours with daytime heating. The outflow and area rain is likely to help to impact and lower temperatures slightly across the area as well. Rainfall through Saturday is not associated with Beryl, which we address Beryl and beyond down below.
The focus of the forecast for Sunday into next week turns to the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and what Hurricane Beryl ends up doing track and strength wise. The latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center has the cone of uncertainty entering our southern counties by the end of the current 5 day forecast. However, there does remain considerable uncertainty within the forecast in the Day 5 to 7 time frame as models struggle with the intensity and eventual track of Beryl as it interacts with a weakening upper level ridge to our east across the Southeastern CONUS, upper level troughing over the central plains, and a weak TUTT (Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough) preceding the storm in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that is forecast to induce some wind shear onto the storm. Even once Beryl makes landfall, we'll also need to monitor for any additional interactions with potentially the frontal boundary located to our north or invest 96L as it approaches/enters the Western Gulf of Mexico itself.
We want to re-iterate that at this time frame still 5+ days out we should not focus on any one deterministic model run, but focus on ensemble data and the official forecast from the Hurricane Center.
There will remain high uncertainty on the eventual track of Beryl and the intensity as it makes it to the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
We hope to have more confidence on the track/strength/impacts later this week. One thing we are sure of is to stress to anyone traveling to the beach for the the 4th of July, that increased swells and the risk for rip currents increase by the end of the week into the weekend. Due to the uncertain track, confidence in rainfall amounts across the area in association with Beryl and after Beryl within the next 7 days, remains very low. Kept the NBM on temperatures in the Day 5 to 7 range where values are lower with the influence of the potential for greater cloud chances and rain chances across the region. All interests across our area should continue to check back frequently for future updates.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
High pressure aloft will not change much over the next 24 hours and this means the low level winds will be light and well decoupled at night. A few pockets of MVFR cigs could result again along the I-35 terminals, but the rest of the TAFS should be VFR. A few midday gusts to near 20 knots are possible in the midday and early afternoon hours.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 79 101 78 100 / 0 0 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 100 76 99 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 77 101 76 100 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 77 99 76 98 / 0 0 0 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 81 104 81 103 / 0 0 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 77 99 77 98 / 0 0 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 76 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 97 76 98 / 0 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 100 77 100 / 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 77 101 77 101 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KGTU
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KGTU
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KGTU
Wind History graph: GTU
(wind in knots)
Central Texas,
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