Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Raymer (New Raymer), CO
July 3, 2024 4:25 AM MDT (10:25 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:32 AM Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 2:59 AM Moonset 7:02 PM |
Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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FXUS65 KBOU 030949 AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 349 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across the plains this afternoon/evening.
- Elevated fire weather conditions across the high country and urban corridor this afternoon
- Gorgeous weather conditions are expected on the Fourth of July with only a slight chance of an evening shower or storm.
- Somewhat cool and mainly dry conditions will persist Friday through early next week.
SHORT TERM /Through tonight/
Issued at 303 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Another day, another complicated convective forecast across northeast Colorado.
Weak elevated convection has persisted through most of the overnight hours tonight across Lincoln county into the southeastern portion of the state. SPC Mesoanalysis still shows roughly 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE across the plains, in part due to continued low-level moisture advection back into the state.
Surface obs this morning show upper 50s dew points east of the urban corridor, which is a bit more moisture than most near-term guidance had predicted. Weak showers and a couple of storms will remain possible through the early morning hours as this convection gradually lifts to the north and east.
The synoptic scale players are largely set for today, as a broad upper trough axis and accompanying jet streak move across the region this afternoon through tonight. This should provide some weak broad scale ascent, but neither of these features are particularly strong. What's left are the mesoscale details. A surface dryline is expected to setup across the plains, with dry northwesterly flow on the dry side (more on this later), with moist southerly flow east of the boundary. Models generally have this boundary stalling near a Kimball NE - Fort Morgan - Deer Trail line.
Areas east of the dryline should be in a broadly favorable environment for severe weather. With surface dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s, MLCAPE should increase to 1000-1500 J/kg. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the approaching shortwave, deep layer shear should also generally reach 35-45kt. With generally straight-line hodographs, this setup would favor splitting supercells with primarily a large hail/damaging wind threat. While a tornado or two can't be ruled out, any tornado threat would be driven by subtle/mesoscale boundary interactions. Models also hint at some weak capping across the warm/moist sector this afternoon, which would likely limit overall convective coverage. This is (somewhat) well-modeled by the 00z HRRR members, with paintball plots showing at least a couple of supercells, but little agreement in the exact location.
Further west... warm, dry and breezy will be the story of the day.
Guidance shows a deep, well-mixed boundary layer across the high country and the I-25 corridor, with relative humidity values falling to around 15%. BUFKIT momentum transfer plots suggest mixing down from ~500mb (if not higher), which should lead to a few gusts around 30-35kt, especially across the higher elevations.
Did think for a bit about a Red Flag Warning, but don't have the confidence that we'll reach the areal/time thresholds for an RFW.
With Independence Day just around the corner, please be mindful that there is still some fire danger on any dry/breezy days. Be aware of any local fire restrictions this week!
A fairly strong cold front (for July standards) is expected to push into the region overnight tonight... but more on that below.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/
Issued at 133 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
The Fourth of July will have very pleasant weather conditions.
This is due to a cold front that will move through our forecast area Wednesday night and, as a result, Thursday will start off on the cooler side with lows in the low to mid 50s across the plains. As a shortwave trough moves east of the area, there will be mostly sunny skies for much of the day with subsident flow.
The latest high resolution model runs are showing that there will be just enough instability due to steep lapse rates that a couple showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two could develop in the evening hours. The models focus on northern Weld and Larimer Counties as the primary location for these showers and storms but there is a slight chance that they form anywhere on the plains.
South Park will be the focus for the worst fire weather conditions on Thursday. Relative humidity will decrease to as low as 10 percent with gusts around 30 mph possible. Fire weather highlights may be needed for fire zone 214. Across the plains, the cool temperatures will limit fire weather conditions as minimum relative humidity will be above 22 percent.
The upper level pattern will become stagnant for the rest of the long term period. There will be a strong ridge aloft over California which will create a heat wave out west. There will be troughing over the Midwest during this period which will put Colorado under northwesterly flow aloft between these features.
Our forecast area will see a period of generally cool and dry weather from Friday through Tuesday. There are two primary exceptions, however. The first is on Saturday as temperatures will reach the 90s across the plains and fire weather conditions may near critical limits as relative humidity drops to the teens with gusts near 25 mph. The other exception is Sunday when a more substantial shortwave trough will move across Colorado. There will be a cold front at the surface that brings in cool and moist air which may lead to good coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
At some point next week, the aforementioned ridge aloft over California will move eastward over Colorado. When this happens, Colorado will experience a heat wave. Over the past couple of days, models seem to hold off this ridge moving over Colorado until later in the week.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday/
Issued at 1158 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
VFR through the TAF period. A few weak TS/SHRA have developed near the terminals but will be short-lived as they drift northeastward into a more stable airmass. Winds over the next few hours will be light and variable before transitioning to drainage flow.
West-northwesterly flow is expected to develop again at BJC and likely at DEN by late morning/early afternoon. Don't think we'll see nearly as strong of gusts but a few 20-25kt gusts are possible, especially for BJC. At APA, guidance is split on whether the northwest winds will make it or not, and they may just bounce back and forth between a variable and northwest wind. There is a low chance that convection east of the terminals could throw out an outflow boundary.
A cold front is expected to arrive around 06z Thursday with stronger north winds behind it.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 349 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across the plains this afternoon/evening.
- Elevated fire weather conditions across the high country and urban corridor this afternoon
- Gorgeous weather conditions are expected on the Fourth of July with only a slight chance of an evening shower or storm.
- Somewhat cool and mainly dry conditions will persist Friday through early next week.
SHORT TERM /Through tonight/
Issued at 303 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Another day, another complicated convective forecast across northeast Colorado.
Weak elevated convection has persisted through most of the overnight hours tonight across Lincoln county into the southeastern portion of the state. SPC Mesoanalysis still shows roughly 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE across the plains, in part due to continued low-level moisture advection back into the state.
Surface obs this morning show upper 50s dew points east of the urban corridor, which is a bit more moisture than most near-term guidance had predicted. Weak showers and a couple of storms will remain possible through the early morning hours as this convection gradually lifts to the north and east.
The synoptic scale players are largely set for today, as a broad upper trough axis and accompanying jet streak move across the region this afternoon through tonight. This should provide some weak broad scale ascent, but neither of these features are particularly strong. What's left are the mesoscale details. A surface dryline is expected to setup across the plains, with dry northwesterly flow on the dry side (more on this later), with moist southerly flow east of the boundary. Models generally have this boundary stalling near a Kimball NE - Fort Morgan - Deer Trail line.
Areas east of the dryline should be in a broadly favorable environment for severe weather. With surface dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s, MLCAPE should increase to 1000-1500 J/kg. As mid-level flow increases ahead of the approaching shortwave, deep layer shear should also generally reach 35-45kt. With generally straight-line hodographs, this setup would favor splitting supercells with primarily a large hail/damaging wind threat. While a tornado or two can't be ruled out, any tornado threat would be driven by subtle/mesoscale boundary interactions. Models also hint at some weak capping across the warm/moist sector this afternoon, which would likely limit overall convective coverage. This is (somewhat) well-modeled by the 00z HRRR members, with paintball plots showing at least a couple of supercells, but little agreement in the exact location.
Further west... warm, dry and breezy will be the story of the day.
Guidance shows a deep, well-mixed boundary layer across the high country and the I-25 corridor, with relative humidity values falling to around 15%. BUFKIT momentum transfer plots suggest mixing down from ~500mb (if not higher), which should lead to a few gusts around 30-35kt, especially across the higher elevations.
Did think for a bit about a Red Flag Warning, but don't have the confidence that we'll reach the areal/time thresholds for an RFW.
With Independence Day just around the corner, please be mindful that there is still some fire danger on any dry/breezy days. Be aware of any local fire restrictions this week!
A fairly strong cold front (for July standards) is expected to push into the region overnight tonight... but more on that below.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/
Issued at 133 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
The Fourth of July will have very pleasant weather conditions.
This is due to a cold front that will move through our forecast area Wednesday night and, as a result, Thursday will start off on the cooler side with lows in the low to mid 50s across the plains. As a shortwave trough moves east of the area, there will be mostly sunny skies for much of the day with subsident flow.
The latest high resolution model runs are showing that there will be just enough instability due to steep lapse rates that a couple showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two could develop in the evening hours. The models focus on northern Weld and Larimer Counties as the primary location for these showers and storms but there is a slight chance that they form anywhere on the plains.
South Park will be the focus for the worst fire weather conditions on Thursday. Relative humidity will decrease to as low as 10 percent with gusts around 30 mph possible. Fire weather highlights may be needed for fire zone 214. Across the plains, the cool temperatures will limit fire weather conditions as minimum relative humidity will be above 22 percent.
The upper level pattern will become stagnant for the rest of the long term period. There will be a strong ridge aloft over California which will create a heat wave out west. There will be troughing over the Midwest during this period which will put Colorado under northwesterly flow aloft between these features.
Our forecast area will see a period of generally cool and dry weather from Friday through Tuesday. There are two primary exceptions, however. The first is on Saturday as temperatures will reach the 90s across the plains and fire weather conditions may near critical limits as relative humidity drops to the teens with gusts near 25 mph. The other exception is Sunday when a more substantial shortwave trough will move across Colorado. There will be a cold front at the surface that brings in cool and moist air which may lead to good coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
At some point next week, the aforementioned ridge aloft over California will move eastward over Colorado. When this happens, Colorado will experience a heat wave. Over the past couple of days, models seem to hold off this ridge moving over Colorado until later in the week.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday/
Issued at 1158 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
VFR through the TAF period. A few weak TS/SHRA have developed near the terminals but will be short-lived as they drift northeastward into a more stable airmass. Winds over the next few hours will be light and variable before transitioning to drainage flow.
West-northwesterly flow is expected to develop again at BJC and likely at DEN by late morning/early afternoon. Don't think we'll see nearly as strong of gusts but a few 20-25kt gusts are possible, especially for BJC. At APA, guidance is split on whether the northwest winds will make it or not, and they may just bounce back and forth between a variable and northwest wind. There is a low chance that convection east of the terminals could throw out an outflow boundary.
A cold front is expected to arrive around 06z Thursday with stronger north winds behind it.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KGXY
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KGXY
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KGXY
Wind History graph: GXY
(wind in knots)
Cheyenne, WY,
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