Sunrise 5:39 AM   Sunset 8:41 PM Moonrise 11:35 AM   Moonset 12:11 AM

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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 231 Am Edt Thu Jun 13 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 pm edt this afternoon through late tonight - .
Overnight - SW winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Thu - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt until early morning. Waves 1 ft. Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Sat - N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sun - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 231 Am Edt Thu Jun 13 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a ridge of high pressure will remain near the waters today. A cold front will pass through late Friday. High pressure will return over the weekend before exiting offshore. A warm front tracks across the area on Monday. Small craft advisories may be needed Friday afternoon and Saturday morning, and perhaps again on Monday into Monday night.

FXUS61 KCTP 130242 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1042 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

SYNOPSIS
A seasonable night with clear skies and calm winds will give way to above average temperatures on Thursday as southwest winds west of high pressure drifting off the Mid Atlantic Coast usher in milder conditions.

A cold frontal passage on Friday will spark a round or two of showers and scattered thunderstorms, some of which could produce gusty winds, frequent lightning and hail.

After a dry and warm weekend, a ridge of high pressure will bring an increased risk of excessive heat early next week with highs in the 80s and 90s and heat index values possibly exceeding 100F.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
A very pleasant night is underway with low dewpoints and seasonable temperatures. Skies are clear for most and should stay that way through Thursday morning for most save a few cirrus clouds streaming in overhead. Great viewing of the waxing crescent moon, which will set during the 1 o clock hour overnight. Tonight will be tranquil and comfortably cool with min temps near 50F in the perennial cold spots across the Northern Mtns and Laurel Highlands and mid to upper 50s elsewhere.

As high pressure drifts east of the Commonwealth on Thursday, winds will shift to come out of the southwest and could be a bit gusty at times, especially in the northern tier. Winds coming from the southwest mean an increase in temperatures and moisture. Mostly sunny skies are expected as high temperatures reach the 80s areawide. Another comfortable day is expected for most, but dewpoints will likely crest the 60F mark in the Lower Susquehanna Valley, making it feel noticeably (but not aggressively) humid.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
An approaching cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the northern Alleghenies as early as Thursday night, and then drop south across central PA during the day Fri with more numerous showers and thunderstorms. There is still uncertainty with the timing of this precip and associated clouds, which will influence how high temps can rise across south central PA. Latest hires guidance has precip holding off until at least late afternoon in the southeast, allowing temps to first rise into the upper 80s to low 90s. Most places will see rainfall totals between 0.20 and 0.50 inch on Fri, with locally higher amounts possible in heavier downpours.

SPC's Day 3 outlook paints a MRGL risk for SVR TSRA across much of Central PA, while a SLGT Risk covers a small portion of our Eastern zones (the Western Poconos, south through the greater Harrisburg, Lebanon and Lancaster areas).

Despite forecast high temps near 90 across southern zones Thu- Fri, relatively low levels of humidity (dewpoints 55-65F) will hold the heat index to just a couple deg above the air temp.
Thus not anticipating heat products at this time. However, the +15-20 degree swing from temps well below normal early this week to the warm weather late this week is noteworthy.

After the cold front exits southeast PA on Friday evening, dewpoints and temperatures will fall quite nicely overnight as skies clear out and lows end up in the 50-60F range by Saturday morning. High pressure will result in sunny skies, temperatures right around average, and conditions quite similar to today (Wednesday) - refreshing to spend time outside! The center of high pressure will pass overhead Saturday night and temperatures will drop into the 40s and 50s by Sunday morning.
This will be the last time we see temperatures in the 40s in PA for the foreseeable future.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Dry conditions are expected to prevail through Tuesday afternoon outside of some isolated diurnally driven showers across the northern tier Monday afternoon and across much of north and western PA Tuesday afternoon.

An extended period of above average temperatures is increasingly likely as a large ridge builds across the eastern US. This will allow for MaxTs and MinTs +10-15F above climatology for the middle of June. There remains some model difference with respect to the strength of the ridge, but generally better agreement of abnormally warm temperatures extending northward into PA.

Less humid conditions on Monday will bring heat index values into the upper 90s, with some locations across southern PA pushing close to the 100F mark. Humidity during the afternoon hours will increase the risk for excessive heat on Tuesday with some potential for heat index values in the 100-105F across the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Humid conditions will continue into Wednesday with heat index values slightly lower than Tuesday, but still anomalously warm even for this time of the year. The Climate Prediction Center has placed much of eastern PA in a Moderate Risk for Excessive Heat for the middle and end of next week, outlining the longevity of heat across the region.

AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Late evening update.

Current fcst in good shape.

Earlier discussion below.

Not really any change for the 00Z package.

Abnormally dry airmass in place has resulted in a layer of high base CU today.

Not expecting fog or low clouds tonight, given the dry airmass in place.

Winds remain rather light on Thursday, for the first warm day in a while.

A chance of showers and storms on Friday with a cold front.
Timing of the system and the lack of real high dewpoints may limit the coverage and intensity of the showers and storms.
Activity quickly clears out late Friday.

A dry weekend shaping up with VFR conditions.

Perhaps a shower or storm late Monday, as a warmer airmass is advected eastward toward PA.

Outlook...

Fri...Restrictions possible in CB/TSRA.

Sat-Sun...Predominantly VFR.

Mon...Mainly VFR, chance of convection mainly northwest.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Middle Branch
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:55 AM EDT     1.22 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:01 AM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:02 PM EDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:54 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Middle Branch, Baltimore Harbor, Maryland, Tide feet

Fells Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:38 AM EDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:49 AM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:45 PM EDT     1.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:42 PM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fells Point, Baltimore Harbor, Maryland, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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