Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 2:54 AM   Moonset 6:01 PM

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FXUS64 KFWD 031600 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1100 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /This Afternoon Through Thursday Afternoon/

The heat will hang on through the Fourth of July holiday with North and Central Texas remaining on the western periphery of the ridge aloft. Shallow moisture will keep the sky mostly clear, allowing for maximum solar heating. Highs both this afternoon and Thursday will range from the upper 90s to around 104. Afternoon heat index values will remain in the 105 to 110 degree range for all but the southwest zones where dew points will mix out the most. We will maintain the Heat Advisory for all but the southwest zones through Thursday. The Heat Advisory will most likely not need to be extended for North Texas on Friday due to more clouds and the passage of a weak cold front (as discussed in the long term discussion below).

The only concern other than the heat will be an uptick in fire starts since fuels have been drying out due to the heat, and there will be multiple ignition sources due to Independence Day celebrations. The good news is that sustained wind speeds will remain below 15 mph for the most part, so the threat for significant fire spread will stay low.

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LONG TERM
/Issued 301 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024/ /Thursday Night Onward/

The eastward shift and breakdown of the mid-level ridge overhead will open the door for returning convection and relief from the ongoing oppressive heat through the extended forecast period. As 4th of July outdoor activities wind down Thursday evening, our focus will be on the cold front sliding through southern Oklahoma and West Texas. The front is projected to move into North Texas Friday morning, with a gradual slowing of its southward progress later in the day in response to the departing upper trough. While large-scale forcing for ascent will largely be displaced to the north/northeast, frontogenetical lift from the surface boundary should be sufficient for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the front. The risk for severe weather generally appears low however, given the unfavorable timing of this initial convection...during the overnight/pre-dawn hours when instability is at a minimum...and weak vertical wind shear.

There is likely to be a moderate spread in afternoon temperatures on Friday between areas under the influence of increased cloud cover/rain-cooled air and the sunny prefrontal warm sector. The result will be high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s along and behind the front and the mid/upper 90s ahead of the front. Depending on where the boundary settles, the combination of strong diurnal heating (ahead of the front) and ample available moisture is likely to allow for some airmass destabilization and the potential for a few strong storms during peak heating on Friday. The main area to watch looks to be near and south of I-20 and east of I-35 where moderately strong instability may be realized.

Though the front is expected to stall or maybe even retreat northward on Saturday, rain chances and increased cloud cover should keep temperatures near or below climatological normals across the entire region on Saturday. Morning lows will be in the 70s and afternoon highs will be in the lower 90s. North and Central Texas will remain situated between ridges late weekend and into next week with broad troughing to the north. Shortwaves passing through the resultant weak northwest flow aloft will maintain an unsettled pattern complete with lingering rain chances and relatively mild (near-average) temperatures before upper ridging builds east of the Rockies mid to late week.

Hurricane Beryl, currently a CAT 4 Hurricane in the Central Caribbean, is expected to emerge over the Bay of Campeche Friday evening as a tropical storm. The weakness or col over the south- central U.S. may encourage Beryl to take a more north/northwestward turn into the Western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Uncertainty remains in how the land interaction along the Yucatan Peninsula will weaken the system, the shear profile over the Western Gulf, and how the position/strength of the col/ridge pattern over the central U.S. will affect the track. This uncertainty could affect the extended forecast for areas spanning from Tampico, Mexico to Lake Charles, Louisiana and points inland.
For North and Central Texas, the evolution of Beryl is worth watching for potential direct or indirect impacts.

12

AVIATION
/NEW/ /18Z TAFs/

VFR and south flow

High pressure will hang on through the TAF period, yielding great flying weather across North Texas. Other than a few passing high clouds, the sky will be clear and no visibility restrictions are anticipated.

A south wind will continue between 6 and 12 knots along with some daytime gusts around 20 knots.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 100 82 100 79 93 / 0 0 0 20 40 Waco 99 79 99 79 97 / 0 0 0 5 30 Paris 98 79 97 75 92 / 0 0 0 30 40 Denton 101 80 102 76 92 / 0 0 0 30 50 McKinney 99 81 99 77 92 / 0 0 0 30 40 Dallas 101 82 101 79 95 / 0 0 0 20 40 Terrell 99 79 98 77 93 / 0 0 0 20 40 Corsicana 100 79 99 79 97 / 0 0 0 10 30 Temple 99 77 99 77 98 / 0 0 0 5 20 Mineral Wells 101 79 102 76 92 / 0 0 0 20 50

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.

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