Sunrise 5:23 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 2:51 AM   Moonset 6:52 PM

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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 345 Am Edt Wed Jul 3 2024
Today - SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves subsiding to 1 ft or less. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Thu night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and slight chance of tstms. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers and slight chance of tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sat - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sat night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sun - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 345 Am Edt Wed Jul 3 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure along the coast will gradually work farther offshore today. A weak frontal system will then approach from the west tonight into Thursday, stalling over the area Thursday night into Friday. Another frontal system follows for the weekend.

FXUS61 KOKX 030859 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 459 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure along the coast will gradually work farther offshore today. A weak frontal system will then approach from the west tonight into Thursday, stalling over the area Thursday Night into Friday. A warm front will lift through Friday night, followed by a cold frontal passage Saturday afternoon and night. The front will linger over the area and weaken on Sunday and Monday, then lift back through Monday night into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Shortwave upper ridging today flattens tonight, as a shortwave trough slides east through Quebec and Ontario. At the surface, high pressure along the coast slides offshore, with a weak frontal system approaching from the west tonight.

Return flow strengthens today as high pressure moves offshore and gradient tightens ahead of frontal system well to the west. Fair conditions (sunshine filtered by mainly high clouds) and moderately strong hybrid synoptic/seabreeze development expected to push well inland today. Gusty S/SE winds 20-25 mph likely along the coast. This will result in increasing humidity levels and near seasonable temps in the upper 70s/lower 80s along the coast to mid 80s to the west of the Hudson River.

A weak frontal system approaches tonight, with warm and muggy conditions in return flow and increasing mid-deck. A few showers possible N&W of NYC late tonight in response to approaching front and increasing convectively induced vort activity in flow aloft.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
General agreement on broad upper troughing across southeastern Canada slowly retreating northward on Friday, while a closed low develops over the northern plains and slides east into the Great Lakes. This will place the region on the southern edge of an active (convectively induced vorts and enhanced weak shortwaves) southwesterly upper flow.

At the surface, a weak cold front/pre-frontal trough approaches on Thursday and then settles over the region Thu Night into Friday, perhaps dissipating in the vicinity. Seasonably warm and very humid conditions with continued WAA WSW flow aloft (lower 80s coast to mid to upper 80s NYC metro and areas N&W).

Weak shortwave/vort energy moving through the upper flow may be trigger for scattered tsra/downpour development in vicinity of weak pre-frontal trough/cold front to the west and possible isolated development along well inland moving sea breeze boundary in a moist and sub-tropical environment (2"+ PWATS)
Thu aft/eve. Considerable mid deck cloud cover, weak instability (weak mid-level lapse rates and weak capping), weak deep layer shear, and weak surface convergence point to limited deep convection potential. With above ingredients though, scattered heavy downpours still possible, and can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm threat (mainly w of the Hudson R Thu aft/eve) in form of weakening convection sliding eastward from PA. There is a bit more of a signal compared to 24 hrs ago of a convectively induced weak shortwave helping to steepen lapse rates and increase shear to the west of the region, to support this organized convective potential Thu aft/eve. SPC HRRR 3"/3hr of 10 to 30 percent is currently centered over SE PA into SW NJ, signaling where the better threat for more widespread and deeper convection exits. Expecting some clarity on this threat over the next 24 hrs in NWP and CAMs.

Although thunder threat should wane as any shower activity slides to the coast Thu eve, scattered heavy downpours threat exists into 4th of July eve/night events as the weak frontal boundary stalls across the region and shortwave energy moves thru aloft. Warm and muggy conditions Thu Night, with potential for nocturnal stratus/fog development.

Considerable model spread on progression/placement of frontal boundary on Friday (either passing to the east, stalling overhead, lifting north as warm front), dependent on Thu Night convective shortwave strength and progression. First and last scenarios would likely result in less unsettled, sunnier and very warm and humid conditions (mid to upper 80s). Meanwhile, if boundary stalls over the region Friday, expectation would be considerable cloudiness and scattered diurnal shower/tstm activity in moist and weakly unstable environment, with temps remaining seasonably warm (lower to mid 80s). More clarity over the next 24 to 48 hrs.

One more point, the very warm and humid conditions will have peak heat indices likely running 90 to 95 Thu thru Sat for NE NJ into portions of LoHud. There is a low potential for heat advisory issuance at some point during this time period in this area.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Guidance is coming into clearer focus with the evolution and timing of systems affecting the area from late this week into early next week. THe overall pattern will feature a longwave trough to the west and a Western Atlantic ridge, with well defined disturbances moving through the flow aloft Fri night and again on Tue. The first of these will lift a warm front through, which will serve more to increase dewpoints than bring significant temperature change. This should get the heat index close to or just over 95 in NE NJ and maybe in the lower elevations NW of NYC.

A cold front follows for Sat afternoon/evening with chance of tstms.
The front should move into the area and weaken on Sunday, with deep layer moisture shunted to the south and a dry fcst with lower dewpoints if not temps for most of Sunday into daytime Mon. PoP increases to chance late Mon night into Tue AM west of NYC, and then across most of the area Tue night as the next disturbance and associated deep layer subtropical moisture arrive.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR. Light and variable winds overnight. Winds pick up S-SW 10-15 kt this afternoon with gusts up to 20 kt possible, then diminish tonight.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Late tonight: VFR.

Thursday: MVFR or lower cond possible with any afternoon or nighttime showers/tstms.

Friday through Saturday: MVFR or lower cond possible at times with chance of showers/tstms.

Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Southerly flow strengthens today with the high departing to the east and a weak frontal system approaching from the west. Marginal SCA gusts possible this aft/eve and Thu aft/eve at entrance to NY Harbor and western Great South Bay with coastal jet development. Ocean seas may approaching 5 ft in this area Thursday.

Better chance of SCA cond Sat afternoon/night on the ocean as long fetch S flow increases to 15-20 kt, with a few gusts close to 25 kt. This should builds seas to 5 ft during this time.

HYDROLOGY
A weak frontal system will approach Thursday and linger into Friday. Isolated slow moving thunderstorm and heavy downpours producing 2"/hr rainfall rates are possible Thu aft/eve, mainly west of the Hudson River. The threat is low and isolated at this point.

Another slow moving front possible for this weekend. Additional frontal boundaries will affect the region into early next week.
It is still too soon to determine the risk of any hydrological impacts from these multiple frontal boundaries affecting the area late this week into early next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There is a moderate risk for rip current development along local Atlantic facing beaches today and Thursday with a combo of building southerly wind wave and 1 to 2 ft E/SE swell.

Rip risk could become locally high for W LI and NYC beaches in the late aft/eve both days with enhanced seabreeze formation and large tidal range.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Mastic Beach
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Wed -- 02:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:13 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:49 AM EDT     0.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:05 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:12 PM EDT     0.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mastic Beach, Moriches Bay, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Shinnecock Canal
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Wed -- 02:20 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:00 AM EDT     1.13 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:31 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:42 AM EDT     -1.55 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:10 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:16 PM EDT     1.74 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:19 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:30 PM EDT     -1.71 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots

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