Sunrise 5:20 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 2:43 AM   Moonset 4:07 PM

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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1016 Pm Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sun - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers after midnight. Mon - SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Mon night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Wed - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Thu night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely.

ANZ300 1016 Pm Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure centered along the mid atlantic coast remains overnight and gradually drifts to the southeast and offshore on Sunday. A weakening disturbance moves through late Sunday night and for the first half of Monday. High pressure remains over the waters Tuesday and Wednesday before sliding offshore Wednesday evening. A series of frontal systems then approach by the end of the week.

FXUS61 KOKX 020318 CCA AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service New York NY 1118 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure along the mid Atlantic coast remains overnight and gradually drifts offshore on Sunday. A weakening disturbance moves through late Sunday night and for the first half of Monday. High pressure remains over the area Tuesday and Wednesday before sliding offshore Wednesday evening. A series of frontal systems then approach the area by the end of the week into next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
No significant changes from the previous update.

Minor update this cycle for winds given that shallow sea breezes across Long Island are now pushing north into LI Sound via KOKX and NYSM profiler location at Stony Brook.
Otherwise,the forecast is essentially on track.

High pressure settles over the area tonight. A dry air mass for this time of year with dew point readings primarily in the lower half of the 50s, so a rather comfortable night. Outlying areas will likely not get as cool as the previous night with some air mass modification starting to take place. The winds will be light to calm with the high essentially directly over the region. With deep layer ridging in place look for essentially clear skies, although some cirrus may sneak into far western locations later in the overnight. Lows should get down into the lower and middle 50s in the coolest locations in the non urban areas, with mainly lower 60s across the more metro areas.

Another pleasant day across the area on Sunday. The mid and upper level ridge axis starts to shift overhead, and with this there should be more in the way of high level moisture starting to intrude, especially for western areas later in the day. Other than some cirrus, look for a good deal of sunshine. The synoptic pressure gradient will be quite weak, and thus earlier sea breeze development is expected. With the high getting further offshore the synoptic flow will have more of a southerly component, and with daytime heating the southerly flow will increase and thus a hybrid sea breeze should be able to penetrate further north and west for the afternoon hours. It will still be a fairly comfortable warm day with dew point reading remaining primarily in the 50s, with perhaps the immediate south shore of Long Island having dew points approach 60 later in the afternoon with more of a wind directly off the ocean.
Temperatures will be very similar to what they were the previous day, with perhaps far eastern and southern locations being a couple of degrees cooler, especially later in the afternoon with more of a sea breeze and wind off the water influence.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A weakening mid level short wave starts to draw closer during the beginning of the period. As the shortwave progresses east and over the Appalachians it will get dampened out and lose amplitude.
Look for clouds to increase Sunday night from west to east as the mid and upper ridge axis gets offshore. As the shortwave gets suppressed it will have difficulty conserving vorticity and thus it undergoes some shearing. The BUFKIT sounding essentially show the higher RH at 10- 15 kft and below, so there should not be a lot of depth the moisture. Therefore any rain shower activity that breaks out is expected to be rather light and intermittent late Sunday night into Monday morning. It does appear that all of Sunday evening will be dry across the entire area, with perhaps the first of the shower activity getting into far western areas towards and just after midnight. The shower activity may briefly get more coverage into the Monday morning commute but instability does appear to be lacking down low and in the mid levels. Thus, at this time QPF amounts look to be under a quarter inch, and perhaps even below a tenth of an inch.

Towards Monday afternoon the global guidance consensus does show the middle portion of the column drying out. Thus look for some clearing, or at least breaks in the clouds Monday afternoon and evening. A light onshore flow however may keep stratus and low clouds in play, especially further to the southeast. Therefore uncertainty in the cloud coverage / sky forecast remains for later Monday into Monday evening. Temperatures should be relatively close to normal, perhaps a few degrees above normal for the most part for Sunday night and Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
*Key Points*

*Seasonable high temperatures for the period.

*Dry conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday followed by unsettled weather for week's end and into the weekend.

Global ensembles are in generally good agreement with the synoptic pattern through late week. Mid and upper ridging centered over the northeast to begin the period flattens to a more zonal flow by Thursday and Friday. This is the result of a sprawling upper low taking shape over the central Canadian Maritimes, of Pacific origin, slowly moving east Thursday into Friday and settling over eastern Canada by the weekend. This will return us to a cooler and wetter pattern toward the end of the long term period.

At the surface, high pressure centered over New England on Tuesday shifts offshore by Wednesday. Interior sections will be warmest for these two days under dry conditions with east/southeast flow keeping coastal areas a few degrees cooler. Highs in the upper 70s to near 80, with low 70s for the coast.

By Thursday, a surface low north of Great Lakes, associated with the aforementioned upper low heads slowly east. An associated warm front approaches the area on Thursday. The front looks to remain near or just to the north of the area into Friday as the parent low occludes. Shower chances ramp up on Thursday morning and moreso by Thursday afternoon with the front in the vicinity. Have maintained thunder in the forecast as model soundings do depict some elevated instability/CAPE Thursday afternoon. By Friday, the cold front pushes through the area as the surface low heads east. Depending on timing, another round of thunder may also be possible with any precipitation associated with its passage.

After a brief respite possibly late Friday into early Saturday from precipitation, additional showers are possible Saturday into Sunday as the upper low continues to move very slowly east.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure remains along the mid Atlantic coast into Sunday, and then slowly moves east late Sunday and Sunday night.

VFR.

Winds generally light W/SW through the overnight with winds light and variable at the outlying terminals. A light W/SW wind will reestablish tomorrow mid-morning at or less than 10 kt.
During the afternoon the flow become more southerly with sea breeze enhancement.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night: VFR. Low chance of MVFR in showers late and mainly at the NYC metro terminals.

Monday-Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR. MVFR or lower possible late day into the night with showers.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible in rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through the period. Seas on the ocean will be 2 ft or less through Wednesday, and perhaps getting closer to 3 ft towards Thursday. The ocean waters may begin to approach SCA conditions with 4-5 ft waves late Thursday into early Friday under enhanced southerly flow.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Tide levels increase getting closer to mid week. Stevens guidance shows minor flood benchmarks being approached as early as Monday night. Thus, trends will need to be monitored in subsequent cycles with minor coastal flooding will become more likely for the south shore bays of Nassau, Queens, and Brooklyn, along with Western LI Sound for CT, and Westchester towards Tuesday.

Water temperatures remain around 60 degrees around the region.
This poses the threat for hypothermia to anyone immersed in the water. Small boats, canoes, and kayaks should plan accordingly if recreating this and use extreme caution to avoid this threat.

There is a low rip current risk through the weekend due to low seas on the ocean and winds mainly 10 kt or less.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Herod Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:53 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:04 AM EDT     5.95 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:12 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:33 PM EDT     6.65 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Herod Point, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet

Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:01 AM EDT     1.25 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:08 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:30 AM EDT     -1.59 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:57 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:36 PM EDT     1.50 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:54 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:07 PM EDT     -1.59 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots

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