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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Yarmouth, MA

June 26, 2024 11:47 AM EDT (15:47 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:06 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM
Moonrise 11:52 PM   Moonset 10:04 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ232 Nantucket Sound- 1004 Am Edt Wed Jun 26 2024

.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening - .

This afternoon - SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 4 seconds and S 2 ft at 8 seconds.

Tonight - SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 4 seconds and S 2 ft at 7 seconds. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Thu - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: sw 3 ft at 4 seconds and S 2 ft at 7 seconds. Showers likely in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Thu night - W winds around 10 kt, becoming N with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: nw 2 ft at 3 seconds and S 2 ft at 7 seconds.

Fri - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: N 2 ft at 3 seconds and S 1 foot at 7 seconds.

Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 1 foot at 3 seconds and nw 1 foot at 4 seconds.

Sat - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.

Sat night - S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.

Sun - SW winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely.

Sun night - W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 1004 Am Edt Wed Jun 26 2024

Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - A cold front moves E from the great lakes today, with strong sw winds and building seas ahead of it. This cold front crosses new england and the waters late tonight and Thu. High pres builds over the waters Fri, then moves offshore Sat. Another cold front should cross the waters sometime late Sun into Sun night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Yarmouth, MA
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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 261141 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 741 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

SYNOPSIS
Hot and humid today with a risk for showers and thunderstorms especially late this afternoon into the evening. Though there is a risk for some spotty activity early this afternoon. Some storms could turn strong to perhaps severe bringing risk of strong winds and heavy downpours, which may lead to flooding.
Drier weather late in the week along with decreasing humidity.
However, we enter a warming trend with increasing humidity into the weekend, which will also increase our chances for showers and thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
No major changes to the ongoing forecast this morning. Still getting some signals for an earlier round of showers early this afternoon before the main event arrives towards sunset, or even later. Mainly brought the forecast back in line with observed trends.

Previous Discussion...

Highlights

* Hot and muggy today. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible across southern New England late this afternoon into tonight. Main threats are strong to perhaps damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours, which may lead to localized flooding.

Will be setup in a quasi-zonal flow pattern through a good portion of this timeframe. Could see a weak/subtle shortwave lift in from the central/eastern Great Lakes this morning into the afternoon. A more substantial trough digs into the central/eastern Great Lakes by this afternoon. This trough becomes neutral to perhaps slightly negatively tilted as it digs into the eastern Great Lakes this evening and lifts through New England tonight. A pre-frontal trough slides across southern New England late this morning/early afternoon. A cold front slides through this evening/tonight.

Confidence unfortunately a bit lower than would like being inside 24 hours, but there is the risk for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms today/tonight. Main questions at this point revolve around this earlier pre-frontal trough and if it has enough juice to trigger showers/storms earlier today. If this happens what will be the impacts for the activity pushing in late this afternoon/tonight with the cold front. Details below.

Late morning/early afternoon....

Overall guidance in pretty good agreement on the pre-frontal trough sliding in late this morning/early afternoon. Guidance split on if there is enough low level moisture and how unstable the environment will be as this feature is moving through. There is also little run to run consistency amongst some CAM, which somewhat makes sense given the weak-ish forcing. The dry solutions are the latest GFS/FV3/HRRR (capped with slightly lower dewpoints), while the ECMWF/GDPS/ARW and NSSLWRF depict a line of activity developing earlier in the afternoon. The NAM/NAMNest not as robust with this line as the aforementioned pieces of guidance, so is essentially the compromise between the two. Leaned more toward the majority of guidance at this point, but have only capped us at slight chances heading into the afternoon due to uncertainty. Should see a tongue of a few hundred to perhaps 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE along with 7-9 degree low level lapse rates. There are also hints that there would be a lingering remnant EML overhead in line with this activity.
However, deep layer shear (0-6 km bulk shear) a bit more meh in the 20-30 kt range. Any of this activity could disrupt or enhance anything that develops later today/tonight, so will be interesting to see what happens.

Afternoon through tonight...

Risk higher for more widespread showers and thunderstorms across southern New England during this timeframe, especially late this afternoon/tonight. Any early day activity could potentially work over the environment, but guidance tends to struggle with this (though latest NSSLWRF does show this well).
Main question will be can the front arrive quick enough that it can really tap into waning instability/increasing stability as we head into the evening. Have leaned on the consensus of guidance at this point. This brings fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region. Could have a few hundred to perhaps 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE to work with. As the front approaches will see deep layer shear increase to 30-50+ kts. The mid level lapse rates become quite poor fairly quickly, but still could see some elevated low level lapse rate until the evening. Our PWATs also significantly increase to 1.5 to 2 inches and will have warm cloud layer depths of 3.5-4 km, so heavy downpours will be possible with any storms. Fortunately the system is fairly progressive, but latest HRRR LPMM indicating could have a few spots that see over 3 inches of rain. Looks like heaviest would be late evening into the overnight hours and could cause issues if it falls over some of our more flood prone areas. Given this setup do think there could be some strong to perhaps damaging winds as well.

Given the uncertainty during this timeframe think that SPC Marginal Risk for severe suffices. Think that the WPC ERO Marginal is also fine. Though will note for the severe risk that the Nadocast and CSU ML still really heavily highlighting a wind threat, maximized from CT into portions of the interior.
For timing the latest 00Z NCAR HRRR Neural Network really highlights much of our region for a wind threat with the timing being with the night activity. Could end up seeing more seeing more scattered vs isolated risk if these ML guidance sources pan out. Stay tuned as this is a tricky forecast and ultimately will boil down to the mesoscale details.

Bumped up our high temperatures to the 75th percentile of guidance given the westerly flow through the day should allow for downsloping. The result are highs in the 80s for most, but will have some spots in the low 90s across the Merrimack and CT Valley. Muggy with dew points into the 60s, but not oppressive enough where any heat advisories would be needed.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
* Any lingering showers/storms move offshore early in the day.
Will be dry for most other than perhaps a spot shower across the MA/NH/VT border during the afternoon.

Caught in cyclonic flow through this period. A trough over our area will lift offshore early in the day, but will have another dig into northern New England during the afternoon. High pressure will begin to nudge in once the cold front pushes offshore during the AM.

Main focus of the forecast was in the near term. Only major change made was to introduce a few spotty showers across the MA/NH/VT border during the afternoon and try to better time the AM activity exiting. Overall though for most will be a pretty nice day with decreasing humidity levels, albeit it may be a bit breezy at times. High temperatures will generally be in the 80s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Highlights:

* Dry and seasonable Fri with low humidity

* Another round of scattered showers/t-storms Sat afternoon into Sun. Becoming rather humid Sun.

* Dry and less humid Mon and Tue

High pressure expected to build across southern New England from the Great Lakes Friday, then move offshore Saturday. A cold front should move across our region Sunday into Sunday night, with a high pressure arriving for early next week.

Looking at more of a roller coaster forecast during this time frame. Overall, expecting near normal temperatures with comfortable humidity for much of this time. The exception looks to be this weekend, with a brief period of above normal temperatures and high humidity Saturday night into Sunday night ahead of the approaching cold front.

The main question this weekend will be the intensity of convection as it moves across our region. Consensus of the guidance does not raise many alarms, with model soundings generally showing a modest inversion in the 800-650 mb layer.
That said, there are discrepancies in the guidance details, and given the time range, am not ready to completely dismiss the idea just yet. At this juncture, the most likely outcome is for widespread showers to arrive some time late Saturday into Saturday evening, then depart Sunday night. This is not to say it will be raining this entire time. Will take some more time to pin down these details.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today and Tonight...Moderate confidence.

VFR to start. Will have S to SW winds at 10-20 kts with gusts of 20-30 kts today. Those these gusts most frequent into the afternoon. There could be some isolated storms early this afternoon as a prefrontal trough slides through. Confidence not high enough on the coverage (and if activity develops) at this juncture to include in TAF. Have only hinted at with 5 kft ceilings, but may be needed in future updates. Risk higher for scattered showers and storms roughly 20Z into the evening/overnight where conditions deteriorate to MVFR/IFR with localized LIFR. Some storms could be strong and produce heavy downpours. Have tried to nail down this risk at all terminals where is most likely with the PROB30. Winds ease to around 5-10 kts this evening, but will quickly shift to the W tonight from west to east as the cold front slides through (though may not be until Thu AM for Cape terminals).

Thursday...High confidence in trends, moderate in exact timing.

Any lingering MVFR/IFR improves to VFR during the AM as showers/storms exit. Winds out of the W at 5-10 kts with gusts of 15-20 kts.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

VFR for much of today. Could have an isolated shower/storm early this afternoon, but risk higher tonight where conditions deteriorate to MVFR/IFR. Have tried to highlight best shot with PROB30. Winds remain too strong out of the SW for sea breeze to develop today.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

VFR for much of today. Could have an isolated shower/storm early this afternoon, but risk higher late this afternoon/tonight where conditions deteriorate to MVFR/IFR. Have highlighted best shot for thunderstorms with PROB30.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night through Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
SHRA likely, slight chance TSRA.

Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, slight chance TSRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Small Craft Advisories extended for the southern and eastern outer waters due to elevated seas into Thu.

Today...High confidence.

Winds remain out of the SW/SSW at 15-25 kts with gusts of 20-30 kts. Seas 4-6 ft across the southern waters and eastern outer waters. Scattered thunderstorms could spread into the waters late in the afternoon/evening.

Tonight...High confidence.

Winds SW 15-25 kts with gusts of 20-30 kts. Winds may start to shift to the WSW/W toward daybreak as the cold front crosses western portions of the area. Seas 5-7 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue into the morning.

Thursday..High confidence.

Cold front crosses waters, which will shift winds to W during the AM. Still could have some lingering showers/storms crossing.
Winds become lighter and shift to the S/SW during the afternoon.
Seas across the outer waters diminishing to 2-4 ft during the afternoon.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers likely, isolated thunderstorms.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for MAZ020>024.
RI...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ231>234-236.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ235-237.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ254>256.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 7 mi37 minSW 19G23 71°F 71°F29.7669°F
44090 17 mi77 min 65°F2 ft
CHTM3 18 mi47 min 75°F 29.77
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 22 mi47 min 70°F 70°F29.78
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 24 mi47 minSSW 12G18 73°F 72°F29.80
NBGM3 34 mi47 minWSW 15G19 74°F 29.77
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 42 mi67 min 61°F2 ft
44085 43 mi47 min 68°F 64°F5 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 43 mi47 minSW 24G26 68°F 29.78
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 48 mi47 minSW 9.9G11 74°F 29.75
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 48 mi47 min 78°F 72°F29.77
FRXM3 49 mi47 min 77°F 67°F


Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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Wind History graph: HYA
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Tide / Current for Hyannis Port, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts (2)
   
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Hyannis Port
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Wed -- 03:56 AM EDT     3.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:50 AM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:39 PM EDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:07 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Hyannis Port, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts (2), Tide feet
12
am
1.5
1
am
2.2
2
am
2.9
3
am
3.3
4
am
3.5
5
am
3.2
6
am
2.5
7
am
1.6
8
am
0.7
9
am
0
10
am
-0.2
11
am
0.1
12
pm
0.7
1
pm
1.4
2
pm
2.1
3
pm
2.7
4
pm
3.1
5
pm
3.1
6
pm
2.7
7
pm
2
8
pm
1.3
9
pm
0.5
10
pm
0.2
11
pm
0.3


Tide / Current for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Pollock Rip Channel
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Wed -- 01:01 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:46 AM EDT     -1.88 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:53 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:17 AM EDT     2.21 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:47 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:24 PM EDT     -1.77 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:32 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:40 PM EDT     1.80 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current, knots
12
am
0.9
1
am
0
2
am
-1
3
am
-1.7
4
am
-1.9
5
am
-1.5
6
am
-0.8
7
am
0.1
8
am
1.1
9
am
1.8
10
am
2.2
11
am
2.1
12
pm
1.7
1
pm
0.8
2
pm
-0.2
3
pm
-1.2
4
pm
-1.7
5
pm
-1.7
6
pm
-1.2
7
pm
-0.5
8
pm
0.4
9
pm
1.2
10
pm
1.7
11
pm
1.8


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Boston, MA,




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