Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ventress, LA
June 2, 2024 10:17 AM CDT (15:17 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:01 AM Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 2:07 AM Moonset 3:13 PM |
GMZ435 Vermilion And West Cote Blanche Bays- 432 Am Cdt Sun Jun 2 2024
Today - South winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early this morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely late this morning and early afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late.
Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Monday night - South winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Tuesday - South winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Tuesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
Thursday - Southwest winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Thursday night - Southwest winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ400 432 Am Cdt Sun Jun 2 2024
Synopsis -
weak high pressure will ridge across the northern gulf of mexico and provide mainly light onshore flow for today. Scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms will continue through the day before diminishing this evening. High pressure ridging across the northern gulf and a series of low pressure systems over the plains will allow for modest southerly winds during next week.
weak high pressure will ridge across the northern gulf of mexico and provide mainly light onshore flow for today. Scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms will continue through the day before diminishing this evening. High pressure ridging across the northern gulf and a series of low pressure systems over the plains will allow for modest southerly winds during next week.
Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KLIX 021455 AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 955 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
New UPDATE
UPDATE
Issued at 947 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Adjusted PoP, weather, and QPF forecasts to account for ongoing convective trends based on the latest radar and satellite data.
A broad area of light to moderate stratiform rainfall with occasional embedded thunderstorms will continue to impact the I-10 corridor between Baton Rouge and New Orleans through the morning hours, and have increased PoP to categorical or over 80 percent for this area. Additional scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will continue to develop through the morning hours over parts of the Northshore. Around mid-day, this initial round of stratiform rainfall should dissipate, but continued high PWATS near 2 inches and daytime heating will support another period of convective development from mid-afternoon through the early evening hours. This development will occur along a boundary draped in a northwest to southeast orientation across Southeast Louisiana, and have PoP of 60 to 70 percent in place for the Northshore, metro New Orleans, metro Baton Rouge, and the River Parishes. Once again, the the primary threat will be heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flooding issues and possibly some hail and high winds if the core of the convective updrafts are strong enough to punch above 40k feet. The convective activity is still expected to dissipate in the mid to late evening hours, generally between 8 and 10 PM, with the loss of daytime heating.
PG
SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
The somewhat active pattern continues into Sunday with the region remaining under a northwesterly flow aloft on the northeast side of a rather strong H5 ridge centered over Mexico. Within this flow (very reminiscent of summer) some rather robust impulses have been sliding through the region and this should continue again today and into the start of the new workweek. Initially, this morning an impulse has helped develop some isolated but rather strong T'storms just west of the Atchafalaya. These storms are elevated in nature given the LCH and LIX 00z RAOBs depicting low level inversions at the surface. Still, a strong wind gust, heavy rain and hail (some could be large) will be possible with this activity as it moves southeast. The best potential at the moment early this morning seems to be along and west of the Mississippi River or more specifically Terrebonne Parish and the near shore gulf waters/Terrebonne Bay.
As this initial short wave continues downstream there may be a bit of a break later this morning. This break will allow conditions to destabilize and allow for additional showers and thunderstorms to develop once again as yet another ripple within the flow moves overhead. CAMs are NOT performing the greatest at the moment so we did do a broad brush with POPs today and tried to get timing down, but at this juncture POPs are based on timing of the individual impulses as well as the diurnal cycle. With cloudiness around, insolation looks to be limited, but a break in showers/convection with the strong sun angle will still provide enough surface heating to destabilize. Since CAMs are struggling, followed the globals lead for both QPF/POPs generally across the board through today. By Monday, we'll need to watch a potential MCS to our northwest, however, guidance isn't very aggressive at least not for our area. The synoptic pattern begins a very subtle change allowing for the more intense mid level shortwave to become negatively tilted and shifts the upper flow to a more zonal flow keeping most of this activity to the north. Still, with very subtle ripples within this flow and again diurnal processes, rain chances are NOT zero, but should be quite a bit lower than today with generally 20/30 POPs across the board. Consequently, temperatures begin to rebound with MaxTs approaching the 90F mark once again. (Frye)
LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
A bit less active going into the long term as the zonal mid and upper level flow continues across the region. Upper level ridging will slide eastward across more of the central Gulf. With the lower POPs and less cloudiness, temperatures will be increasing into the 90s for most of the CWFA. By Wednesday, a surface front and parent trough begin to slide southward from the Missouri Ozarks and eventually winding up across the mid south. The zonal flow quickly evolves by Wednesday and Thursday back to a northerly flow. This will help bring the front southward toward the northeast Gulf. With the upper trough moving south and eastward, most of the best upper level support will miss our region to the east, but the eastern third of the CWFA will have a shot of showers/convection. As this first frontal boundary moves south and east, surface high pressure develops/centers across the northern Gulf. This will limit winds and overall will suppress rain chances. Again, consequently, strong insolation will help max temps climb into the 90s just about everywhere.
By Friday, a second front will be sliding southward from the Ohio/TN River Valleys. Globals are a bit (or a lot) off with the GFS being the slower of the solutions with the front draped across our area a full 24 hours or more after the ECM. So, needless to say confidence isn't quite high in the timing. But, with the broad- scale trough setting up across the east and the front making it this far south, think rain chances will be there and should gradually increase in time as confidence in when and exactly where the better support will be aloft going into the start of next weekend. (Frye)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Unfortunately, short fused AMDs may be necessary through this cycle, especially during the day today as timing of convection is still a bit questionable. Made an attempt to use TEMPOs vs VCs to try to hammer down timing with this mornings convection having the best confidence. In the heaviest convection expect brief IFR drops, otherwise VFR outside of convection will continue to be possible. Overnight tonight, convection should decrease with a few lingering -SHRAs around. Cannot rule out CIG/VIS drops, especially for MCB by the end of this cycle. (Frye)
MARINE
Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
The main concerns going into the start of the new workweek and beyond will be the potential for convection across the local waters. In and around the local Gulf Waters and tidal lakes.
Surface winds eventually shift to a more southerly direction and will generally range between light to moderate (some winds up to 15kts not out of the realm of possibility Tue/Wed), but high pressure builds right back across the Gulf, which should help relax surface winds and seas. Again, higher winds and seas can be anticipated in convection. (Frye)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 82 68 87 70 / 60 20 40 30 BTR 87 73 91 74 / 90 60 70 50 ASD 85 72 89 74 / 80 40 20 20 MSY 84 75 89 76 / 90 50 60 40 GPT 85 73 87 75 / 60 30 30 10 PQL 85 71 89 72 / 60 40 20 20
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 955 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
New UPDATE
UPDATE
Issued at 947 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Adjusted PoP, weather, and QPF forecasts to account for ongoing convective trends based on the latest radar and satellite data.
A broad area of light to moderate stratiform rainfall with occasional embedded thunderstorms will continue to impact the I-10 corridor between Baton Rouge and New Orleans through the morning hours, and have increased PoP to categorical or over 80 percent for this area. Additional scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will continue to develop through the morning hours over parts of the Northshore. Around mid-day, this initial round of stratiform rainfall should dissipate, but continued high PWATS near 2 inches and daytime heating will support another period of convective development from mid-afternoon through the early evening hours. This development will occur along a boundary draped in a northwest to southeast orientation across Southeast Louisiana, and have PoP of 60 to 70 percent in place for the Northshore, metro New Orleans, metro Baton Rouge, and the River Parishes. Once again, the the primary threat will be heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flooding issues and possibly some hail and high winds if the core of the convective updrafts are strong enough to punch above 40k feet. The convective activity is still expected to dissipate in the mid to late evening hours, generally between 8 and 10 PM, with the loss of daytime heating.
PG
SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
The somewhat active pattern continues into Sunday with the region remaining under a northwesterly flow aloft on the northeast side of a rather strong H5 ridge centered over Mexico. Within this flow (very reminiscent of summer) some rather robust impulses have been sliding through the region and this should continue again today and into the start of the new workweek. Initially, this morning an impulse has helped develop some isolated but rather strong T'storms just west of the Atchafalaya. These storms are elevated in nature given the LCH and LIX 00z RAOBs depicting low level inversions at the surface. Still, a strong wind gust, heavy rain and hail (some could be large) will be possible with this activity as it moves southeast. The best potential at the moment early this morning seems to be along and west of the Mississippi River or more specifically Terrebonne Parish and the near shore gulf waters/Terrebonne Bay.
As this initial short wave continues downstream there may be a bit of a break later this morning. This break will allow conditions to destabilize and allow for additional showers and thunderstorms to develop once again as yet another ripple within the flow moves overhead. CAMs are NOT performing the greatest at the moment so we did do a broad brush with POPs today and tried to get timing down, but at this juncture POPs are based on timing of the individual impulses as well as the diurnal cycle. With cloudiness around, insolation looks to be limited, but a break in showers/convection with the strong sun angle will still provide enough surface heating to destabilize. Since CAMs are struggling, followed the globals lead for both QPF/POPs generally across the board through today. By Monday, we'll need to watch a potential MCS to our northwest, however, guidance isn't very aggressive at least not for our area. The synoptic pattern begins a very subtle change allowing for the more intense mid level shortwave to become negatively tilted and shifts the upper flow to a more zonal flow keeping most of this activity to the north. Still, with very subtle ripples within this flow and again diurnal processes, rain chances are NOT zero, but should be quite a bit lower than today with generally 20/30 POPs across the board. Consequently, temperatures begin to rebound with MaxTs approaching the 90F mark once again. (Frye)
LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
A bit less active going into the long term as the zonal mid and upper level flow continues across the region. Upper level ridging will slide eastward across more of the central Gulf. With the lower POPs and less cloudiness, temperatures will be increasing into the 90s for most of the CWFA. By Wednesday, a surface front and parent trough begin to slide southward from the Missouri Ozarks and eventually winding up across the mid south. The zonal flow quickly evolves by Wednesday and Thursday back to a northerly flow. This will help bring the front southward toward the northeast Gulf. With the upper trough moving south and eastward, most of the best upper level support will miss our region to the east, but the eastern third of the CWFA will have a shot of showers/convection. As this first frontal boundary moves south and east, surface high pressure develops/centers across the northern Gulf. This will limit winds and overall will suppress rain chances. Again, consequently, strong insolation will help max temps climb into the 90s just about everywhere.
By Friday, a second front will be sliding southward from the Ohio/TN River Valleys. Globals are a bit (or a lot) off with the GFS being the slower of the solutions with the front draped across our area a full 24 hours or more after the ECM. So, needless to say confidence isn't quite high in the timing. But, with the broad- scale trough setting up across the east and the front making it this far south, think rain chances will be there and should gradually increase in time as confidence in when and exactly where the better support will be aloft going into the start of next weekend. (Frye)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Unfortunately, short fused AMDs may be necessary through this cycle, especially during the day today as timing of convection is still a bit questionable. Made an attempt to use TEMPOs vs VCs to try to hammer down timing with this mornings convection having the best confidence. In the heaviest convection expect brief IFR drops, otherwise VFR outside of convection will continue to be possible. Overnight tonight, convection should decrease with a few lingering -SHRAs around. Cannot rule out CIG/VIS drops, especially for MCB by the end of this cycle. (Frye)
MARINE
Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
The main concerns going into the start of the new workweek and beyond will be the potential for convection across the local waters. In and around the local Gulf Waters and tidal lakes.
Surface winds eventually shift to a more southerly direction and will generally range between light to moderate (some winds up to 15kts not out of the realm of possibility Tue/Wed), but high pressure builds right back across the Gulf, which should help relax surface winds and seas. Again, higher winds and seas can be anticipated in convection. (Frye)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 82 68 87 70 / 60 20 40 30 BTR 87 73 91 74 / 90 60 70 50 ASD 85 72 89 74 / 80 40 20 20 MSY 84 75 89 76 / 90 50 60 40 GPT 85 73 87 75 / 60 30 30 10 PQL 85 71 89 72 / 60 40 20 20
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KHZR FALSE RIVER RGNL,LA | 4 sm | 22 min | SW 03 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | Thunderstorm in Vicinity | 75°F | 73°F | 94% | 30.03 |
| KBTR BATON ROUGE METROPOLITAN, RYAN FIELD,LA | 18 sm | 24 min | SE 06 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 79°F | 73°F | 84% | 30.01 |
Weeks Bay
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:09 AM CDT Moonrise
Sun -- 04:08 AM CDT 1.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:06 AM CDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:57 AM CDT 1.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:19 PM CDT 1.34 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:14 PM CDT Moonset
Sun -- 08:04 PM CDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:29 PM CDT -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:09 AM CDT Moonrise
Sun -- 04:08 AM CDT 1.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:06 AM CDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:57 AM CDT 1.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:19 PM CDT 1.34 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:14 PM CDT Moonset
Sun -- 08:04 PM CDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:29 PM CDT -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Weeks Bay, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.5 |
| 1 am |
| 0.8 |
| 2 am |
| 1.1 |
| 3 am |
| 1.3 |
| 4 am |
| 1.4 |
| 5 am |
| 1.3 |
| 6 am |
| 1.3 |
| 7 am |
| 1.2 |
| 8 am |
| 1.1 |
| 9 am |
| 1 |
| 10 am |
| 1 |
| 11 am |
| 1.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 0 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.1 |
Cote Blanche Island
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:08 AM CDT Moonrise
Sun -- 04:43 AM CDT 1.27 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:06 AM CDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:41 AM CDT 0.95 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:54 PM CDT 1.26 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:13 PM CDT Moonset
Sun -- 08:03 PM CDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:13 PM CDT -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:08 AM CDT Moonrise
Sun -- 04:43 AM CDT 1.27 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:06 AM CDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:41 AM CDT 0.95 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:54 PM CDT 1.26 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:13 PM CDT Moonset
Sun -- 08:03 PM CDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:13 PM CDT -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Cote Blanche Island, West Cote Blanche Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.5 |
| 1 am |
| 0.7 |
| 2 am |
| 0.9 |
| 3 am |
| 1.1 |
| 4 am |
| 1.2 |
| 5 am |
| 1.3 |
| 6 am |
| 1.2 |
| 7 am |
| 1.1 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 1 |
| 10 am |
| 1 |
| 11 am |
| 1 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 0 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 11 pm |
| -0 |
New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE