Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Geneva-on-the-Lake, OH
July 3, 2024 5:27 AM EDT (09:27 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:50 AM Sunset 9:08 PM Moonrise 2:17 AM Moonset 6:35 PM |
LEZ168 Expires:202407031415;;357771 Fzus61 Kcle 030800 Glfle
open lake forecast for lake erie national weather service cleveland oh 400 am edt Wed jul 3 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
Synopsis - A cold front will approach the lake today and cross the lake tonight. This front will stall near the ohio river for Thursday. Low pressure 29.70 inches will develop just west of the great lakes on Friday and will lift the stalled front north as a warm front. The low will pass north of the lake on Saturday and extend a weak cold front across the lake by Saturday afternoon. High pressure 30.00 inches will build in by Sunday and remain in the region for Monday
lez061-168-169-031415- ripley to buffalo ny extending from 5nm off shoreline to us- canadian border-geneva-on-the- lake to conneaut oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- conneaut oh to ripley ny beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- 400 am edt Wed jul 3 2024
Today - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early this afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers and Thunderstorms early, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the evening. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday night - South winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers during the day, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Friday night. Waves 1 foot or less building to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
open lake forecast for lake erie national weather service cleveland oh 400 am edt Wed jul 3 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez061-168-169-031415- ripley to buffalo ny extending from 5nm off shoreline to us- canadian border-geneva-on-the- lake to conneaut oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- conneaut oh to ripley ny beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- 400 am edt Wed jul 3 2024
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ100
No data
No data
FXUS61 KCLE 030857 AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 442 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
A ridge continues to exit eastward from our region this morning as a warm front sweeps northeastward through northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. A weak cold front is still poised to sweep generally southeastward through our area this evening through the predawn hours of Thursday morning. Behind the cold front, a weak ridge builds from the western Great Lakes through the balance of Thursday as the aforementioned front settles in vicinity of the upper and middle portions of the Ohio River.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
A ridge at the surface and aloft exits E'ward this morning as a warm front sweeps NE'ward through our CWA and ushers-in a warmer and more humid air mass originating over the Gulf of Mexico and southern Gulf Stream. Behind the ridge and warm front, W'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances affect our region through tonight. A weak cold front is still poised to sweep generally SE'ward through our region this evening through the predawn hours of tomorrow morning.
Fair weather is expected to persist through midday today as the strongest frontogenesis/moist isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the warm front and associated elevated convection remain north of our CWA Stronger low-level warm/moist air advection behind the surface warm front and daytime heating amidst peeks of sunshine are expected to allow highs to reach mainly the mid 80's to lower 90's late this afternoon as warm/moist sector boundary layer CAPE grows to weak to moderate magnitudes amidst moderate effective bulk shear and PWAT values rise to near 2.0". These projected PWAT values are near the record-high values for 00Z/July 4th at the four upper- air stations closest to our CWA Periods of scattered multicell showers/thunderstorms with torrential rainfall and frequent lightning are expected this afternoon through sunset as low- level convergence/ascent along the cold front and pre-front surface trough axes accompanying shortwave disturbances encounter the aforementioned thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Some thunderstorms are expected to be severe with damaging convective wind gusts since daytime heating will allow convective mixing of the boundary layer to yield steep low-level lapse rates and about 500 to 1000 J/kg of DCAPE. W'erly mean mid-level flow is expected to have a large component perpendicular to the cold front and pre-front surface trough axes. Therefore the potential for training convection appears limited. However, isolated flash flooding is possible in low- lying and/or poor drainage areas impacted by multiple rounds of showers/storms. Severe hail is not expected since melting levels will easily exceed 10.5 kft AGL in the warm/moist sector.
Tornadoes are not expected due to a lack of significant strengthening/veering of low-level winds with height.
Shower/thunderstorm coverage along/ahead of the cold front is expected to become isolated later this evening and especially after midnight as the warm/moist sector boundary layer stabilizes slightly via nocturnal cooling. However, boundary layer CAPE is expected to remain weak to moderate and effective bulk shear will remain moderate, which will allow convection to remain organized (i.e. multicellular) and continue to produce periods of heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. The potential for severe thunderstorms is expected to end by midnight as nocturnal cooling causes low-level lapse rates and DCAPE to weaken, respectively. Lows are expected to reach the upper 60's to lower 70's around daybreak Thursday morning as a surface ridge associated with a slightly-cooler and less humid air mass builds from the western Great Lakes, behind the cold front.
On Independence Day, W'erly flow aloft and embedded/subtle shortwave disturbances continue to affect our region as the aforementioned cold front settles near the upper and middle portions of the OH River. Peeks of sunshine and daytime heating are expected to allow late afternoon highs to reach the upper 70's to mid 80's. Sufficient daytime heating of land surrounding ~72F Lake Erie and a weak synoptic MSLP gradient accompanying the building surface ridge will allow a lake breeze to occur during the late morning through early evening and penetrate up to about five miles inland. Thus, the coolest highs on Independence Day are expected over and within several miles of Lake Erie. Surface dew points in the 65F to 70F range and diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer will yield weak to moderate boundary layer CAPE and DCAPE, respectively, as PWAT values remain near the 75th percentile in the "cool" sector and effective bulk shear remains moderate. This thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to support additional multicell showers and thunderstorms capable of producing torrential rainfall, strong convective wind gusts, and frequent lightning. Odds favor primarily fair weather north of the U.S.
Route 30 corridor as the building ridge is accompanied by stabilizing subsidence. However, weak low-level convergence/ascent along the Lake Erie lake breeze front may trigger isolated showers/storms during the afternoon through early evening.
Roughly along and south of U.S. Route 30, isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible, especially during the afternoon through early evening, due to residual outflow boundaries and the area's closer proximity to the aforementioned front. However, Independence Day is not expected to be a complete washout anywhere in our CWA
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
With the surface frontal boundary still stalled well south toward the Ohio River, will continue chipping down PoPs a little bit for Thursday night with a range of 20% near Lake Erie to 45% near Mount Vernon. The front will be preventing a better moisture to lift north and return to the region, which will limit shower/storm coverage. A mid-level wave moving through the region will be the lifting source for any convection on Thursday and should allow for some showers and storms and will not remove PoPs at this time.
The front will be lifted back north as a warm front on Friday, as low pressure will move through the Great Lakes region on Friday and Saturday. Have likely PoPs across the entire area at some point on Friday or Friday evening, as the combination of the warm front, surface low, and upper trough will allow for good coverage of showers and storms. There could be some concerns for strong to severe storms and heavy rain with a flood threat on Friday with good instability expected across the region, dew points trying to reach 70 degrees, and a 30 kt 850 mb jet ahead of the cold front. There is a Day 3 Marginal Risk for severe weather for portions of the forecast area.
The cold front will sweep across the region by Saturday afternoon and PoPs will be on a downward trend to completely dry for the first half of the day. Low pressure will be north of the area still on Saturday and will allow for somewhat breezy southwest winds to remain in the region. High pressure will build from the southwest by the end of the period and allow for fully dry and cooling conditions on Saturday night.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure across the region on Sunday with an upper ridge overhead should allow for a dry start to next week. The surface high will move east and the upper ridge will give away to an upper trough for Monday into Tuesday and rain chances will start to trickle in for the first couple of weekdays, as a cold front will approach and cross the area. Temperatures early next week appear seasonable for early July with 80s for highs.
AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/
A ridge at the surface and aloft exits E'ward through ~14Z/Wed and is followed by W'erly flow aloft, embedded disturbances, and surface troughing. A surface warm front continues to sweep N'ward through our region through ~14Z/Wed. In addition, a weak cold front is expected to drift ESE'ward into our region after 23Z/Wed and near a KPCW to KFDY line by 06Z/Thurs. SE'erly winds around 5 to 10 knots veer to S'erly and increase to 10 to 15 knots with the passage of the warm front. The S'erly to SW'erly winds are expected to gust up to 20 to 25 knots between ~15Z and ~23Z/Wed. The cold front passage will cause SW'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to veer to W'erly.
Primarily VFR are expected through the TAF period. Periodic upper-level ceilings early this morning are expected to lower to mid-level ceilings and then low-level ceilings near 5kft AGL in a somewhat sporadic fashion from WSW to ENE between ~12Z and ~16Z/Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the cold front, especially after 19Z/Wed.
Showers/storms are expected to move generally E'ward across our region. Brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 30 to 50 knots and brief MVFR/IFR are expected with showers and especially storms.
Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periodic/scattered showers/thunderstorms Wednesday night through Saturday.
MARINE
Southerly flow will increase across the lake today as a cold front approaches the region. Believe winds will stay below 20 kt and will not issue a Small Craft Advisory this morning, but strong offshore flow will likely make recreational boating unpleasant for a chunk of today. The front will cross the lake tonight and light westerly flow will take over. The front settles along the Ohio River for Thursday and the lake will be a no man's land for flow and variable wind direction will be on the lake for the holiday, but light flow overall. The front will lift back north as a warm front on Friday and southeast flow will be favored. A surface low will move north of the lake Friday night into Saturday and enhanced southwest flow will develop across the lake and a Small Craft Advisory headline will be possible. The low will depart the region on Saturday night and high pressure will build from the southwest, reducing the southwest flow on the lake through Sunday.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 442 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
A ridge continues to exit eastward from our region this morning as a warm front sweeps northeastward through northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. A weak cold front is still poised to sweep generally southeastward through our area this evening through the predawn hours of Thursday morning. Behind the cold front, a weak ridge builds from the western Great Lakes through the balance of Thursday as the aforementioned front settles in vicinity of the upper and middle portions of the Ohio River.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
A ridge at the surface and aloft exits E'ward this morning as a warm front sweeps NE'ward through our CWA and ushers-in a warmer and more humid air mass originating over the Gulf of Mexico and southern Gulf Stream. Behind the ridge and warm front, W'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances affect our region through tonight. A weak cold front is still poised to sweep generally SE'ward through our region this evening through the predawn hours of tomorrow morning.
Fair weather is expected to persist through midday today as the strongest frontogenesis/moist isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the warm front and associated elevated convection remain north of our CWA Stronger low-level warm/moist air advection behind the surface warm front and daytime heating amidst peeks of sunshine are expected to allow highs to reach mainly the mid 80's to lower 90's late this afternoon as warm/moist sector boundary layer CAPE grows to weak to moderate magnitudes amidst moderate effective bulk shear and PWAT values rise to near 2.0". These projected PWAT values are near the record-high values for 00Z/July 4th at the four upper- air stations closest to our CWA Periods of scattered multicell showers/thunderstorms with torrential rainfall and frequent lightning are expected this afternoon through sunset as low- level convergence/ascent along the cold front and pre-front surface trough axes accompanying shortwave disturbances encounter the aforementioned thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Some thunderstorms are expected to be severe with damaging convective wind gusts since daytime heating will allow convective mixing of the boundary layer to yield steep low-level lapse rates and about 500 to 1000 J/kg of DCAPE. W'erly mean mid-level flow is expected to have a large component perpendicular to the cold front and pre-front surface trough axes. Therefore the potential for training convection appears limited. However, isolated flash flooding is possible in low- lying and/or poor drainage areas impacted by multiple rounds of showers/storms. Severe hail is not expected since melting levels will easily exceed 10.5 kft AGL in the warm/moist sector.
Tornadoes are not expected due to a lack of significant strengthening/veering of low-level winds with height.
Shower/thunderstorm coverage along/ahead of the cold front is expected to become isolated later this evening and especially after midnight as the warm/moist sector boundary layer stabilizes slightly via nocturnal cooling. However, boundary layer CAPE is expected to remain weak to moderate and effective bulk shear will remain moderate, which will allow convection to remain organized (i.e. multicellular) and continue to produce periods of heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. The potential for severe thunderstorms is expected to end by midnight as nocturnal cooling causes low-level lapse rates and DCAPE to weaken, respectively. Lows are expected to reach the upper 60's to lower 70's around daybreak Thursday morning as a surface ridge associated with a slightly-cooler and less humid air mass builds from the western Great Lakes, behind the cold front.
On Independence Day, W'erly flow aloft and embedded/subtle shortwave disturbances continue to affect our region as the aforementioned cold front settles near the upper and middle portions of the OH River. Peeks of sunshine and daytime heating are expected to allow late afternoon highs to reach the upper 70's to mid 80's. Sufficient daytime heating of land surrounding ~72F Lake Erie and a weak synoptic MSLP gradient accompanying the building surface ridge will allow a lake breeze to occur during the late morning through early evening and penetrate up to about five miles inland. Thus, the coolest highs on Independence Day are expected over and within several miles of Lake Erie. Surface dew points in the 65F to 70F range and diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer will yield weak to moderate boundary layer CAPE and DCAPE, respectively, as PWAT values remain near the 75th percentile in the "cool" sector and effective bulk shear remains moderate. This thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to support additional multicell showers and thunderstorms capable of producing torrential rainfall, strong convective wind gusts, and frequent lightning. Odds favor primarily fair weather north of the U.S.
Route 30 corridor as the building ridge is accompanied by stabilizing subsidence. However, weak low-level convergence/ascent along the Lake Erie lake breeze front may trigger isolated showers/storms during the afternoon through early evening.
Roughly along and south of U.S. Route 30, isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible, especially during the afternoon through early evening, due to residual outflow boundaries and the area's closer proximity to the aforementioned front. However, Independence Day is not expected to be a complete washout anywhere in our CWA
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
With the surface frontal boundary still stalled well south toward the Ohio River, will continue chipping down PoPs a little bit for Thursday night with a range of 20% near Lake Erie to 45% near Mount Vernon. The front will be preventing a better moisture to lift north and return to the region, which will limit shower/storm coverage. A mid-level wave moving through the region will be the lifting source for any convection on Thursday and should allow for some showers and storms and will not remove PoPs at this time.
The front will be lifted back north as a warm front on Friday, as low pressure will move through the Great Lakes region on Friday and Saturday. Have likely PoPs across the entire area at some point on Friday or Friday evening, as the combination of the warm front, surface low, and upper trough will allow for good coverage of showers and storms. There could be some concerns for strong to severe storms and heavy rain with a flood threat on Friday with good instability expected across the region, dew points trying to reach 70 degrees, and a 30 kt 850 mb jet ahead of the cold front. There is a Day 3 Marginal Risk for severe weather for portions of the forecast area.
The cold front will sweep across the region by Saturday afternoon and PoPs will be on a downward trend to completely dry for the first half of the day. Low pressure will be north of the area still on Saturday and will allow for somewhat breezy southwest winds to remain in the region. High pressure will build from the southwest by the end of the period and allow for fully dry and cooling conditions on Saturday night.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure across the region on Sunday with an upper ridge overhead should allow for a dry start to next week. The surface high will move east and the upper ridge will give away to an upper trough for Monday into Tuesday and rain chances will start to trickle in for the first couple of weekdays, as a cold front will approach and cross the area. Temperatures early next week appear seasonable for early July with 80s for highs.
AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/
A ridge at the surface and aloft exits E'ward through ~14Z/Wed and is followed by W'erly flow aloft, embedded disturbances, and surface troughing. A surface warm front continues to sweep N'ward through our region through ~14Z/Wed. In addition, a weak cold front is expected to drift ESE'ward into our region after 23Z/Wed and near a KPCW to KFDY line by 06Z/Thurs. SE'erly winds around 5 to 10 knots veer to S'erly and increase to 10 to 15 knots with the passage of the warm front. The S'erly to SW'erly winds are expected to gust up to 20 to 25 knots between ~15Z and ~23Z/Wed. The cold front passage will cause SW'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to veer to W'erly.
Primarily VFR are expected through the TAF period. Periodic upper-level ceilings early this morning are expected to lower to mid-level ceilings and then low-level ceilings near 5kft AGL in a somewhat sporadic fashion from WSW to ENE between ~12Z and ~16Z/Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the cold front, especially after 19Z/Wed.
Showers/storms are expected to move generally E'ward across our region. Brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 30 to 50 knots and brief MVFR/IFR are expected with showers and especially storms.
Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periodic/scattered showers/thunderstorms Wednesday night through Saturday.
MARINE
Southerly flow will increase across the lake today as a cold front approaches the region. Believe winds will stay below 20 kt and will not issue a Small Craft Advisory this morning, but strong offshore flow will likely make recreational boating unpleasant for a chunk of today. The front will cross the lake tonight and light westerly flow will take over. The front settles along the Ohio River for Thursday and the lake will be a no man's land for flow and variable wind direction will be on the lake for the holiday, but light flow overall. The front will lift back north as a warm front on Friday and southeast flow will be favored. A surface low will move north of the lake Friday night into Saturday and enhanced southwest flow will develop across the lake and a Small Craft Advisory headline will be possible. The low will depart the region on Saturday night and high pressure will build from the southwest, reducing the southwest flow on the lake through Sunday.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
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| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KHZY
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KHZY
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KHZY
Wind History graph: HZY
(wind in knots)
Cleveland, OH,
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