Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Palmyra, IL
July 3, 2024 5:31 AM CDT (10:31 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:36 AM Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 2:06 AM Moonset 5:58 PM |
FXUS63 KLSX 030924 AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 424 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- The combination of heat and humidity will allow heat index values to climb to around 105 degrees over parts of southeast Missouri where a Heat Advisory is in effect this afternoon into early this evening.
- There will be additional rounds of thunderstorms through Thursday night. A few of the storms could be severe this afternoon and this evening and again on Thursday afternoon and evening.
- In addition to the severe weather potential, locally heavy rainfall is possible with these thunderstorms.
SHORT TERM
(Through Late Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Highs will reach the lower 90s over southeast Missouri and dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid to upper 70s over much of the area.
Peak heat index readings will reach around 105 over parts of southeast Missouri, so I have issued a Heat Advisory for Reynolds, Iron, and Madison counties from 11 am through 8 pm today.
I have gone ahead and canceled the flood watch early as the heavy rainfall threat has ended over the northern CWA We are continuing to see showers and thunderstorms over the central part of the CWA early this morning. These were occurring on the nose of the LLJ and they should gradually weaken and move east over the next few hours as the LLJ veers and weakens. The associated outflow boundary will move south into the southern part of the CWA this afternoon. The most likely time for additional thunderstorm development today will be this afternoon over southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois along this effective front where MLCAPES will be 2500+ J/kg with deep layer shear of 30+ knots. This could is favorable for producing a few organized multicell clusters that could produce damaging winds through early this evening.
The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area late this evening and overnight as a shortwave trough approaches the area and the low level jet kicks back warranting 60- 90% PoPs. We are still looking at PWATS between 2-2.5" and very high warm cloud depths, and the HRRR LPMM has some small spots with with totals exceeding 3" tonight into tomorrow morning. Will continue to look at the potential for locally heavy rainfall tonight into early Thursday.
Then there will be another risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening as yet another shortwave trough move across the area where the warm front will intersect the incoming cold front. The combination of CAPE/shear favors a few supercells/ organized multicells capable of producing damaging winds and large hail.
Britt
LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Available guidance is still favoring the front moving through the area on Thursday night with showers and thunderstorms moving out of the southeastern part of the CWA on Friday. Friday night into Saturday look dry as large surface high moves across the area. The next upper trough moves through the area early next week bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms as early as Sunday.
Britt
AVIATION
(For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
A line of showers and thunderstorms will affect UIN/JEF/COU through 10Z, but will decrease in intensity with mainly showers and just isolated thunderstorms affecting STL/CPS/SUS between 10-15Z. Additional scattered and thunderstorms will develop over Missouri and Illinois later in the day into the evening, but coverage is not expected to be great enough to include in the TAFs at this time. Have included a VCTS at STL after 06Z on Wednesday night as the coverage of thunderstorms is expected to be greater then. Any thunderstorms will be capable of reducing the ceilings and visibilities to MVFR and possible IFR conditions in heavy rain.
Britt
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO.
IL...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 424 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- The combination of heat and humidity will allow heat index values to climb to around 105 degrees over parts of southeast Missouri where a Heat Advisory is in effect this afternoon into early this evening.
- There will be additional rounds of thunderstorms through Thursday night. A few of the storms could be severe this afternoon and this evening and again on Thursday afternoon and evening.
- In addition to the severe weather potential, locally heavy rainfall is possible with these thunderstorms.
SHORT TERM
(Through Late Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Highs will reach the lower 90s over southeast Missouri and dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid to upper 70s over much of the area.
Peak heat index readings will reach around 105 over parts of southeast Missouri, so I have issued a Heat Advisory for Reynolds, Iron, and Madison counties from 11 am through 8 pm today.
I have gone ahead and canceled the flood watch early as the heavy rainfall threat has ended over the northern CWA We are continuing to see showers and thunderstorms over the central part of the CWA early this morning. These were occurring on the nose of the LLJ and they should gradually weaken and move east over the next few hours as the LLJ veers and weakens. The associated outflow boundary will move south into the southern part of the CWA this afternoon. The most likely time for additional thunderstorm development today will be this afternoon over southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois along this effective front where MLCAPES will be 2500+ J/kg with deep layer shear of 30+ knots. This could is favorable for producing a few organized multicell clusters that could produce damaging winds through early this evening.
The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area late this evening and overnight as a shortwave trough approaches the area and the low level jet kicks back warranting 60- 90% PoPs. We are still looking at PWATS between 2-2.5" and very high warm cloud depths, and the HRRR LPMM has some small spots with with totals exceeding 3" tonight into tomorrow morning. Will continue to look at the potential for locally heavy rainfall tonight into early Thursday.
Then there will be another risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening as yet another shortwave trough move across the area where the warm front will intersect the incoming cold front. The combination of CAPE/shear favors a few supercells/ organized multicells capable of producing damaging winds and large hail.
Britt
LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Available guidance is still favoring the front moving through the area on Thursday night with showers and thunderstorms moving out of the southeastern part of the CWA on Friday. Friday night into Saturday look dry as large surface high moves across the area. The next upper trough moves through the area early next week bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms as early as Sunday.
Britt
AVIATION
(For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
A line of showers and thunderstorms will affect UIN/JEF/COU through 10Z, but will decrease in intensity with mainly showers and just isolated thunderstorms affecting STL/CPS/SUS between 10-15Z. Additional scattered and thunderstorms will develop over Missouri and Illinois later in the day into the evening, but coverage is not expected to be great enough to include in the TAFs at this time. Have included a VCTS at STL after 06Z on Wednesday night as the coverage of thunderstorms is expected to be greater then. Any thunderstorms will be capable of reducing the ceilings and visibilities to MVFR and possible IFR conditions in heavy rain.
Britt
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO.
IL...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KIJX
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KIJX
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KIJX
Wind History graph: IJX
(wind in knots)
Central Illinois, IL,
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