Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elkton, MD
June 14, 2024 5:05 PM EDT (21:05 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:33 AM Sunset 8:33 PM Moonrise 12:26 PM Moonset 12:23 AM |
ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 434 Pm Edt Fri Jun 14 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 am edt Saturday through Saturday morning - .
Rest of this afternoon - SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tonight - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves 1 ft. Numerous showers and tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun - E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 434 Pm Edt Fri Jun 14 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a cold front will pass through this evening. High pressure will return over the weekend before exiting offshore early next week. A warm front will lift across the waters Sunday night through Monday night; small craft advisories may be needed during this time.
a cold front will pass through this evening. High pressure will return over the weekend before exiting offshore early next week. A warm front will lift across the waters Sunday night through Monday night; small craft advisories may be needed during this time.
Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 141924 AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 324 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front crosses our area late this afternoon into tonight.
High pressure begins to build in later tonight and then it remains in place over the region through the weekend. A warm front lifts through Monday, but surface high pressure looks to control our weather through at least the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Some strong to severe thunderstorms possible through this evening especially from about the I-95 corridor to the north and west.
As a closed low centered near Hudson Bay Canada gradually shifts eastward through tonight, a trailing cold front will cross our area through this evening. A pre-frontal trough however is sliding eastward across our region this afternoon and a band of clouds and some showers have accompanied it. These showers have recently dissipated as they approached I-95. A shortwave on the south side of the main upper-level trough is a stronger one and this is sliding across western and central Pennsylvania as of this writing. This feature will continue eastward through this evening. An area of stronger convection has been tied with this and much of the high- resolution guidance is focusing additional convective development with it as it continues to track to the east. The more organized activity with this may move across northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey, although some southeastward development is possible into some higher instability. Some additional convection should also develop farther southwest along the tail end of the shortwave and the incoming cold front. Areas of cloud cover may temper the overall instability especially north and west, however a mesoanalysis reveals MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg across the area. The stronger flow aloft is lagging behind the cold front, however enough deep-layer shear (around 30 knots) is forecast across eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey (less farther south).
Due to a very warm and well mixed boundary layer this afternoon especially farther south and east, the model forecast soundings continue to show an inverted-V profile in the lower levels. This increases the downdraft instability (DCAPE). Given the ongoing setup, the severe thunderstorm risk still remains however it should be isolated to scattered. Convection should congeal into a few clusters or some line segments, and stronger cores may produce locally damaging wind gusts as the heavy rain initially falls into the drier layer within the boundary layer. The freezing levels still look on the higher side, however some hail cannot be ruled out with some stronger updrafts. The precipitable water values are forecast to be around 1.5 inches ahead of the cold front, and therefore high rainfall rates should occur with the strongest convection for a time. The flash flooding risk however looks to be low overall as storms should be on the move, however there is a non-zero risk particularly for the more urban areas.
The showers and thunderstorms will be shifting offshore or weakening later this evening with any severe thunderstorm risk ending. The main shortwave within the southern extent of the trough slides across our area later this evening and this may keep some showers or thunder going into the overnight especially across the coastal plain prior to the cold front moving offshore. The drier air looks to lag a bit, however it is expected to advect southeastward by daybreak resulting in a clearing sky. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s, with even some mid/upper 50s across the northern areas.
As we go through Saturday, a very nice start to the weekend is expected as some cyclonic flow aloft is in place as the trough axis shifts to our east. Surface high pressure will be building down from the northwest, however a tighter pressure gradient will be in place and therefore a northerly breeze is expected. Dew points will be on the decrease and this combined with some cooler temperatures will result in a refreshing feel to the air.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will dominate the short term forecast resulting in dry conditions throughout the back half of the weekend.
Nighttime lows Saturday night are forecast to dip into the mid 50s to right around 60. There will be plenty of sunshine to go around on Sunday. Those who do not enjoy the heat will want to try and get outside as temperatures will be marginally cooler in the low- mid 80s across most of the region. Upper 70s are expected near the shore and at higher elevations.
A sea-breeze will likely develop on Sunday given the weak synoptic flow in the forecast. This sea-breeze could penetrate well in-land by the late afternoon into evening hours. Lows are forecast for the upper 50s to low 60s Sunday Night.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Summary...Few changes to the long term. Hot but mainly dry forecast.
The synoptic pattern and evolution is nearly certain for the long term. An upper-level ridge over the eastern CONUS Monday will build to the north with time. By the Wednesday time frame, the strong ridge will look to be centered directly over the northeastern CONUS and will likely stay in place for quite a bit. The ensembles suggest it is not until around the time frame of Friday that the ridge and its associated axis will begin to break down a bit.
Overall, heights will only build over the region with time Monday onwards. We could see heights of 594-600 dam over us for Wednesday.
At the surface level, high pressure centered offshore Monday will move eastward with time as a warm front lifts over the region. Even still, surface high pressure looks to largely control the region through the duration of the term. Though some rounds of shortwave energy may pester the region for much of the week, any precipitation development should be largely suppressed given the pattern.
We are mainly looking at a dry forecast into Thursday night with temperatures potentially getting warming each day. High temperatures may touch the low 90s for Monday, but widespread highs in the 90s should be anticipated at this point for Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. It is still a little too early to really discuss any potential for heat headlines at this point, but the potential will only grow with time as the week progresses.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Rest of this afternoon...VFR, however areas of sub-VFR conditions late as showers and thunderstorms arrive especially at KRDG and KABE. South to southwest winds mostly 5-10 knots, becoming west KRDG and KABE. Low confidence with the timing details.
Tonight...Areas of sub-VFR conditions through at least this evening, especially visibilities, as some showers and thunderstorms move through with a cold front. Gusty northwesterly winds may occur for a time with stronger thunderstorms. Some low clouds may develop especially south and east of KPHL later this evening into the overnight before clearing takes place. Winds become northwest to north around 5 knots. Low confidence.
Saturday...VFR. Northerly winds 10-15 knots with some gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing some later in the afternoon. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Saturday night through Wednesday...VFR with no significant weather.
MARINE
Through Saturday, the conditions are anticipated to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Southerly winds will turn northerly by later tonight in the wake of a cold front and continue Saturday.
Some showers and thunderstorms move through this evening and a few storms could produce locally gusty winds.
Outlook...
Saturday night through Wednesday...No marine headlines expected. A few gusts around 20 kts possible on Monday. Fair weather.
Rip Currents...
Today, southerly winds 10 to 20 mph. The flow will be a bit more onshore for most of New Jersey as opposed to Delaware.
Additionally, guidance shows a 2 ft 9-10 second longer period swell from the SE to SSE developing by the afternoon. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for New Jersey beaches where the coastline is more perpendicular or oblique to the longer period swell. LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the Delaware beaches. Breaking waves will be around 2 to 3 feet.
Winds turn offshore for Saturday, with a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents everywhere.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 324 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front crosses our area late this afternoon into tonight.
High pressure begins to build in later tonight and then it remains in place over the region through the weekend. A warm front lifts through Monday, but surface high pressure looks to control our weather through at least the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Some strong to severe thunderstorms possible through this evening especially from about the I-95 corridor to the north and west.
As a closed low centered near Hudson Bay Canada gradually shifts eastward through tonight, a trailing cold front will cross our area through this evening. A pre-frontal trough however is sliding eastward across our region this afternoon and a band of clouds and some showers have accompanied it. These showers have recently dissipated as they approached I-95. A shortwave on the south side of the main upper-level trough is a stronger one and this is sliding across western and central Pennsylvania as of this writing. This feature will continue eastward through this evening. An area of stronger convection has been tied with this and much of the high- resolution guidance is focusing additional convective development with it as it continues to track to the east. The more organized activity with this may move across northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey, although some southeastward development is possible into some higher instability. Some additional convection should also develop farther southwest along the tail end of the shortwave and the incoming cold front. Areas of cloud cover may temper the overall instability especially north and west, however a mesoanalysis reveals MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg across the area. The stronger flow aloft is lagging behind the cold front, however enough deep-layer shear (around 30 knots) is forecast across eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey (less farther south).
Due to a very warm and well mixed boundary layer this afternoon especially farther south and east, the model forecast soundings continue to show an inverted-V profile in the lower levels. This increases the downdraft instability (DCAPE). Given the ongoing setup, the severe thunderstorm risk still remains however it should be isolated to scattered. Convection should congeal into a few clusters or some line segments, and stronger cores may produce locally damaging wind gusts as the heavy rain initially falls into the drier layer within the boundary layer. The freezing levels still look on the higher side, however some hail cannot be ruled out with some stronger updrafts. The precipitable water values are forecast to be around 1.5 inches ahead of the cold front, and therefore high rainfall rates should occur with the strongest convection for a time. The flash flooding risk however looks to be low overall as storms should be on the move, however there is a non-zero risk particularly for the more urban areas.
The showers and thunderstorms will be shifting offshore or weakening later this evening with any severe thunderstorm risk ending. The main shortwave within the southern extent of the trough slides across our area later this evening and this may keep some showers or thunder going into the overnight especially across the coastal plain prior to the cold front moving offshore. The drier air looks to lag a bit, however it is expected to advect southeastward by daybreak resulting in a clearing sky. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s, with even some mid/upper 50s across the northern areas.
As we go through Saturday, a very nice start to the weekend is expected as some cyclonic flow aloft is in place as the trough axis shifts to our east. Surface high pressure will be building down from the northwest, however a tighter pressure gradient will be in place and therefore a northerly breeze is expected. Dew points will be on the decrease and this combined with some cooler temperatures will result in a refreshing feel to the air.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will dominate the short term forecast resulting in dry conditions throughout the back half of the weekend.
Nighttime lows Saturday night are forecast to dip into the mid 50s to right around 60. There will be plenty of sunshine to go around on Sunday. Those who do not enjoy the heat will want to try and get outside as temperatures will be marginally cooler in the low- mid 80s across most of the region. Upper 70s are expected near the shore and at higher elevations.
A sea-breeze will likely develop on Sunday given the weak synoptic flow in the forecast. This sea-breeze could penetrate well in-land by the late afternoon into evening hours. Lows are forecast for the upper 50s to low 60s Sunday Night.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Summary...Few changes to the long term. Hot but mainly dry forecast.
The synoptic pattern and evolution is nearly certain for the long term. An upper-level ridge over the eastern CONUS Monday will build to the north with time. By the Wednesday time frame, the strong ridge will look to be centered directly over the northeastern CONUS and will likely stay in place for quite a bit. The ensembles suggest it is not until around the time frame of Friday that the ridge and its associated axis will begin to break down a bit.
Overall, heights will only build over the region with time Monday onwards. We could see heights of 594-600 dam over us for Wednesday.
At the surface level, high pressure centered offshore Monday will move eastward with time as a warm front lifts over the region. Even still, surface high pressure looks to largely control the region through the duration of the term. Though some rounds of shortwave energy may pester the region for much of the week, any precipitation development should be largely suppressed given the pattern.
We are mainly looking at a dry forecast into Thursday night with temperatures potentially getting warming each day. High temperatures may touch the low 90s for Monday, but widespread highs in the 90s should be anticipated at this point for Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. It is still a little too early to really discuss any potential for heat headlines at this point, but the potential will only grow with time as the week progresses.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Rest of this afternoon...VFR, however areas of sub-VFR conditions late as showers and thunderstorms arrive especially at KRDG and KABE. South to southwest winds mostly 5-10 knots, becoming west KRDG and KABE. Low confidence with the timing details.
Tonight...Areas of sub-VFR conditions through at least this evening, especially visibilities, as some showers and thunderstorms move through with a cold front. Gusty northwesterly winds may occur for a time with stronger thunderstorms. Some low clouds may develop especially south and east of KPHL later this evening into the overnight before clearing takes place. Winds become northwest to north around 5 knots. Low confidence.
Saturday...VFR. Northerly winds 10-15 knots with some gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing some later in the afternoon. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Saturday night through Wednesday...VFR with no significant weather.
MARINE
Through Saturday, the conditions are anticipated to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Southerly winds will turn northerly by later tonight in the wake of a cold front and continue Saturday.
Some showers and thunderstorms move through this evening and a few storms could produce locally gusty winds.
Outlook...
Saturday night through Wednesday...No marine headlines expected. A few gusts around 20 kts possible on Monday. Fair weather.
Rip Currents...
Today, southerly winds 10 to 20 mph. The flow will be a bit more onshore for most of New Jersey as opposed to Delaware.
Additionally, guidance shows a 2 ft 9-10 second longer period swell from the SE to SSE developing by the afternoon. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for New Jersey beaches where the coastline is more perpendicular or oblique to the longer period swell. LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the Delaware beaches. Breaking waves will be around 2 to 3 feet.
Winds turn offshore for Saturday, with a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents everywhere.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD | 4 mi | 47 min | W 4.1G | 84°F | 79°F | 29.83 | ||
| DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE | 14 mi | 47 min | S 5.1G | 87°F | 29.82 | |||
| RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE | 15 mi | 47 min | 89°F | 78°F | 29.81 | |||
| MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA | 28 mi | 47 min | 85°F | 78°F | 29.81 | |||
| SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ | 31 mi | 47 min | SE 14G | 77°F | 29.83 | |||
| TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD | 32 mi | 47 min | SW 4.1G | 79°F | 29.83 | |||
| DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE | 40 mi | 35 min | E 2.9 | 85°F | 29.83 | 71°F | ||
| FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD | 43 mi | 47 min | SE 8.9G | 82°F | ||||
| BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD | 44 mi | 47 min | SE 5.1G | 84°F | 75°F | |||
| CBCM2 | 44 mi | 47 min | SE 8G | 77°F | 29.80 | |||
| HWPM2 | 44 mi | 47 min | ESE 11G | |||||
| PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA | 45 mi | 47 min | 91°F | 76°F | 29.79 | |||
| CPVM2 | 49 mi | 47 min | 81°F | 71°F |
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Wind History graph: ILG
(wind in knots)Old Frenchtown Wharf
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT First Quarter
Fri -- 01:23 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 04:30 AM EDT 2.97 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:35 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 10:39 AM EDT 1.52 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:26 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 04:23 PM EDT 2.85 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:32 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 10:54 PM EDT 1.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT First Quarter
Fri -- 01:23 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 04:30 AM EDT 2.97 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:35 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 10:39 AM EDT 1.52 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:26 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 04:23 PM EDT 2.85 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:32 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 10:54 PM EDT 1.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Old Frenchtown Wharf, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.4 |
| 1 am |
| 1.8 |
| 2 am |
| 2.3 |
| 3 am |
| 2.7 |
| 4 am |
| 2.9 |
| 5 am |
| 2.9 |
| 6 am |
| 2.7 |
| 7 am |
| 2.4 |
| 8 am |
| 2 |
| 9 am |
| 1.7 |
| 10 am |
| 1.6 |
| 11 am |
| 1.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 2 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1 |
Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT First Quarter
Fri -- 01:23 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 01:37 AM EDT 1.64 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:06 AM EDT -0.07 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:35 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:15 AM EDT -1.64 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:24 AM EDT 0.03 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:26 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 01:57 PM EDT 1.93 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:49 PM EDT -0.06 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT -1.79 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:32 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 11:53 PM EDT 0.04 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT First Quarter
Fri -- 01:23 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 01:37 AM EDT 1.64 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:06 AM EDT -0.07 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:35 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:15 AM EDT -1.64 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:24 AM EDT 0.03 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:26 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 01:57 PM EDT 1.93 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:49 PM EDT -0.06 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT -1.79 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:32 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 11:53 PM EDT 0.04 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 1.1 |
| 1 am |
| 1.6 |
| 2 am |
| 1.6 |
| 3 am |
| 1.3 |
| 4 am |
| 0.4 |
| 5 am |
| -1 |
| 6 am |
| -1.4 |
| 7 am |
| -1.6 |
| 8 am |
| -1.6 |
| 9 am |
| -1.2 |
| 10 am |
| -0.6 |
| 11 am |
| 0.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| -1.3 |
| 7 pm |
| -1.7 |
| 8 pm |
| -1.8 |
| 9 pm |
| -1.7 |
| 10 pm |
| -1.4 |
| 11 pm |
| -1 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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