NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Mid-level ridging will remain in place over the region while a shortwave passing by to the north weakens it slightly through tonight and Sunday. In light of the weakened ridge and a surface cold front stalling across the Piedmont, greater shower and thunderstorm coverage than the last few days is expected late this afternoon and evening as well as tomorrow afternoon, mainly across inland areas near and west of I-95. Also, temperatures will return closer to seasonal norms with highs expected to reach the lower 90s tomorrow after morning lows in the mid-upper 70s. Heat indices should still reach the low 100s, but stay below Heat Advisory criteria of 105F or greater for 2+ hours. Early morning mist or patchy fog may occur early Sunday morning where rain falls this evening as winds should become light and variable or even calm for a time later tonight.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A typical summertime airmass will remain in place through the short term. The surface frontal boundary will remain quasi-stationary across central NC and upstate SC, with precipitable water values of 2.4-2.6" covering much of the eastern Carolinas. The mid/upper low swirling several hundred miles east of Cape Fear will slowly draw closer, making it to within a few hundred miles of the coast by Monday before taking a turn towards the southwest and beginning to fill. The resulting NW component to winds aloft may usher in some weak PVA that could enhance shower/tstms coverage at time through the period. Will hold PoPs in a 40-70% range (highest inland), peaking Monday afternoon/evening. Clouds/precip from scattered to numerous showers/tstms should keep heat indices a little below advisory criteria, but still over 100 in many locations.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
There appears to be no significant change to the pattern through the long term period. The offshore mid/upper low, well off the SC coast by Tuesday, will fill as it drifts south. A longwave trough axis across the MS River Valley will remain mostly in place, with a ridge across the SE CONUS. The soupy airmass will persist across the forecast area, with precipitable water values hovering around 2.25- 2.5". Expect lows in the mid 70s each night, highs of 90-95 each afternoon, and PoPs in the 40-70% range each afternoon/evening.

AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR over the TAF sites as of 23Z. Expect scattered thunderstorms around FLO/LBT this evening, leading to periodic MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Dry along the coast. Guidance still not overly confident on fog formation overnight, esp. with the uncertainty of rain falling over the TAF sites, so maintained previous forecast of no fog, with MVFR cigs more likely - mainly inland. Similar conditions for Sunday as today - light southerly flow and isolated/scattered aftn showers/thunderstorms.

Extended Outlook...VFR is expected to prevail outside of convection. Early morning fog and low clouds are possible each morning, especially where precip falls the previous day.

MARINE
Through Sunday... High pressure offshore will maintain a generally southerly flow over the waters with speeds decreasing to around 10 kts or so tomorrow. While a southeasterly 2 ft swell at 8-9 sec will persist through the period, south-southwesterly wind waves will decrease from 2-3 ft today to 1-2 ft tomorrow.

Sunday night through Thursday...Bermuda high pressure will be the dominant weather feature through the period. The result will be general southerly flow on the order of 10-15 kt, with periodic gusts to 20 kts in the afternoon and evening near shore. Scattered afternoon and nighttime convection will be more prevalent inland, but may also develop or drift over the waters at times. A 2 ft SE swell every 7-8 seconds will persist through the period, along with a 1-2 ft southerly wind wave every 5 sec.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...None.