NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
First round of strong to severe tstms ongoing across Westchester/Fairfield attm and should continue moving eastward into S CT. These storms may weaken as they enter a more maritime environment, but this is uncertain as high sfc dewpoints may help fuel these storms farther east into S CT through the late day hours. Second round of storms over N central PA should arrive late this evening or either side of midnight, and could also produce gusty winds. SPC severe slight risk area clips western Orange County, and a marginal risk continues N of NYC and for S CT.

Low temps will be near 80 in NYC, and in the 70s elsewhere. Some patchy fog may be possible late across areas impacted by earlier tstms.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Heat advy continues into Tue for most of the area. Temps should be a tad warmer but dewpoints a little lower, and this should yield heat index values similar to those of today. There is a chance for afternoon/evening tstms as a mid level shortwave trough moves through. SPC slight risk includes areas NW of NYC, with a marginal risk for the rest of the CWA, as these will be ample instability and vertical shear to support organized cells and line segments capable of producing strong wind gusts.

Another very warm/humid night expected for Tue night, with lows again near 80 in NYC and in the mid/upper 70s most elsewhere.

Extended heat advy into Wed for areas with fcst high temps near or above 90 and heat index values 95 or more (most of wrn sections of Long Island/S CT on west). Uncertainty on meeting criteria is higher for areas to the east, where high temps will only be in the mid/upper 80s but where dewpoints could be higher.

Another round of strong to locally severe convection expected for Wed afternoon and high ahead of the approaching cold front.
Front should enter the area late at night, with low temps from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The main story for the long term will be relief from the high heat and humidity that currently persists over the region.

Key Points:

* A cold front will continue working offshore on Thursday. A few showers, possibly a thunderstorm may linger nearby in the morning with dry conditions becoming likely in the afternoon and evening.

* Daytime temperatures will return to near seasonable levels Thursday and Friday with dew points falling into the lower and middle 60s, potentially upper 50s in spots.

* A slight moderating temperature trend is possible for the upcoming weekend, but highs will still be in the middle to upper 80s with dew points in the 60s.

* Mainly dry conditions should persist into the upcoming weekend.

Upper level trough will continue over the region on Thursday with the cold front pushing offshore. The deep moisture axis and main area of forcing follows, but there could be some lingering showers in the morning, especially closer to the coast. A thunderstorm is possible, but instability will be diminishing as the front pushes further offshore. Model trends continue supporting the end of any showers Thursday afternoon and have trended PoPs lower than the latest deterministic NBM.

The upper trough axis will likely swing across the area Thursday night into Friday morning. Broad troughing will then persist aloft into the start of the weekend, with a more amplified trough passage late in the weekend. The main uncertainty will be how much moisture will be able to return to the region. Forcing continues to look weak, but there is a signal for a weak surface trough or front nearby which could be a mechanism for convection. The deepest moisture and more organized forcing stays largely north. Will continue to keep the forecast dry through the weekend/next Monday, which is in line with the latest model consensus.

AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A weak surface trough remains in the vicinity through the TAF period.

There will be two periods where showers/thunderstorms are possible. The first will be this afternoon until about 22z and mainly for KHPN and KBDR. The second period will be around 02z to 05z this evening with an approaching cluster of showers/thunderstorms. This cluster will be weakening, but confidence in thunder is high enough to have a TEMPO in the TAF.

Winds mostly SW/S, increasing to around 10-15kt today. Winds lower to about 5-10kt overnight and then increase again to 10-15kt Tuesday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts to 20kt possible.

Showers/thunderstorms now unlikely this afternoon. Still the chance for showers/thunderstorms later this evening around 03z to 05z and have converted PROB30 to a TEMPO.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Afternoon: A chance of evening showers and thunderstorms and MVFR, mainly from NYC metro on NW. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into early evening.

Wednesday: VFR to start. MVFR or lower in showers and thunderstorms late afternoon into the evening, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms late at night.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday and Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A period of SCA conditions is possible, mainly on the ocean, Tuesday night into Wednesday night with increased southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Lingering 5-6 ft seas are possible on Thursday before seas subside into the end of the week.

HYDROLOGY
With a humid air mass in place, any thunderstorms that develop through Wed night will have the potential to produce downpours capable of causing at least minor urban and poor drainage flooding.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There is a moderate rip current risk on the ocean beaches into this evening and then again on Tuesday due to 3-4 ft S swell of 6-8s and S winds 10-15 kt. Seas increase on Wednesday to 5 ft which supports a high rip current risk.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>007- 009>011.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005>007-009>011.
Heat Advisory from 10 PM Tuesday to 9 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ005-009.
Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT Tuesday for CTZ006>008-010-011.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075- 078>081-176>179.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ067>075-176-178.
Heat Advisory from 10 PM Tuesday to 9 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ067>071-078-177.
Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ079-080-179.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ072>075-176-178.
NJ...Heat Advisory from 10 PM Tuesday to 9 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002.
Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108.
Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.