Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Spencer, NY
July 3, 2024 4:27 PM EDT (20:27 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:32 AM Sunset 8:48 PM Moonrise 2:00 AM Moonset 6:13 PM |
LOZ044 Expires:202407031515;;359685 Fzus51 Kbuf 030828 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 428 am edt Wed jul 3 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-031515- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 428 am edt Wed jul 3 2024
Today - South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Sunny early. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest less than 10 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday - Southwest winds less than 10 knots becoming west. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night - West winds less than 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday - North winds less than 10 knots becoming southeast. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Friday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 68 degrees, and the central lake ontario buoy water temperature is 63 degrees.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 428 am edt Wed jul 3 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-031515- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 428 am edt Wed jul 3 2024
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 68 degrees, and the central lake ontario buoy water temperature is 63 degrees.
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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 031911 AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 311 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
Breezy, warm, and dry conditions will continue this afternoon.
A weakening front will move through the region tonight into Thursday morning bringing scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Scattered showers and storms will be possible again for Independence Day, but coverage will be limited to Northeast Pennsylvania and the Catskills.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
215 PM Update...
A weak cold front will push its way through Central NY and NE PA tonight, bringing chances for showers and storms. This front is pretty weak, so chance for storm development is rather low, and the best chances for some thunder will be mainly in NE PA and the Catskills. Chances for showers will linger into Independence Day, but mainly remain over NE PA and the Catskills. Temperatures expected in the mid to upper 80s tomorrow, with tonight's overnight lows in the low 60s to low 70s, and Thursday's overnight lows in the low to upper 60s.
Precipitation amounts tonight through Independence Day is expected to be between a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain.
Any shower or storm that passes over an area may have a short duration of heavier downpours with localized greater amounts.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
305 PM Update...
Our next chance of showers and thunderstorms will focus on Friday night into Saturday. There is some uncertainty for whether a few stronger cells may be involved, as well as locally heavy rainfall.
Friday a surface low in the western Great Lakes deepens and moves east with a warm front lifting into the region. The warm air advection looks weak initially so despite some lift, it does not look like enough forcing is in place to get much more than a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms going during the day Friday. However, it will be quite warm and humid, with heat index values reaching into lower-mid 90s for much of the area, and especially in the Wyoming Valley of PA.
As was already mentioned in the previous version of the discussion, better dynamics move in Friday evening and overnight with better lift as another warm front moves in with better chances of showers and thunderstorms. Shear looks to be good overnight with near 50 knots of 0-6 km shear but forecast soundings show stable air near the surface and elevated CAPE staying below 1000 J/kg with a low equilibrium level so severe thunderstorms are unlikely overnight. Precipitable water values will be over 1.5 inches and could approach 2 inches so heavy rainfall will be likely with showers and thunderstorms that do develop. Storm motions will be 20 to 30 knots so that will limit residence time of the higher rain rates but any training could lead to isolated/localized flash flooding potential Friday night into Saturday morning. The nocturnal timing of this frontal system brings into question how much instability can actually be realized, but the dynamics may provide the boost that would be needed.
The surface low passes north of the Region Saturday with a front dragging through NY and PA. Models are trending a bit faster with the exit of the front which may allow much of the area to actually dry out after the Friday night-early Saturday activity. That said, still some uncertainty in timing and thus we still hang on to some chances of showers and storms especially east of I-81. Pretty confident though that we dry out Saturday night as high pressure builds into the region.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
305 PM Update...
After a quiet Sunday, we may enter a more active pattern towards the middle of next week as heat and humidity interact with passing waves.
High pressure visits during the second half of the weekend with a pleasant day Sunday; highs of mid 70s-mid 80s with comfortable dewpoints.
Heat and humidity build quickly Monday into Tuesday via southwest flow on the edge of a ridge. With upper jet in vicinity and likely passing shortwaves, there will probably be triggers for convection Tuesday-Wednesday with heat and humidity available as fuel plus shear from the strong flow aloft.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through the majority of the 18Z TAF period. Current southerly gusty winds at the majority of terminals will taper off through this evening. A frontal boundary will bring rain and lowered ceilings to all CNY terminals overnight. Scattered showers and potentially isolated thunderstorms move in from the northwest after 00z. Visibilities may also be reduced if a heavier shower were to pass directly over a terminal. If showers reach AVP, it will be towards the end of this TAF period, but confidence is currently too low to include in this TAF package.
Southerly winds will be quite strong today with sustained speeds exceeding 10 kts and peak gusts of 20 to 25 kts. Winds will become calmer tonight. Guidance continues to bring low-level wind shear for RME for a couple hours between 02-04Z, so it's been included in this TAF package.
Outlook...
Wednesday night through Saturday Night...More unsettled pattern with chances of showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions.
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 311 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
Breezy, warm, and dry conditions will continue this afternoon.
A weakening front will move through the region tonight into Thursday morning bringing scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Scattered showers and storms will be possible again for Independence Day, but coverage will be limited to Northeast Pennsylvania and the Catskills.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
215 PM Update...
A weak cold front will push its way through Central NY and NE PA tonight, bringing chances for showers and storms. This front is pretty weak, so chance for storm development is rather low, and the best chances for some thunder will be mainly in NE PA and the Catskills. Chances for showers will linger into Independence Day, but mainly remain over NE PA and the Catskills. Temperatures expected in the mid to upper 80s tomorrow, with tonight's overnight lows in the low 60s to low 70s, and Thursday's overnight lows in the low to upper 60s.
Precipitation amounts tonight through Independence Day is expected to be between a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain.
Any shower or storm that passes over an area may have a short duration of heavier downpours with localized greater amounts.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
305 PM Update...
Our next chance of showers and thunderstorms will focus on Friday night into Saturday. There is some uncertainty for whether a few stronger cells may be involved, as well as locally heavy rainfall.
Friday a surface low in the western Great Lakes deepens and moves east with a warm front lifting into the region. The warm air advection looks weak initially so despite some lift, it does not look like enough forcing is in place to get much more than a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms going during the day Friday. However, it will be quite warm and humid, with heat index values reaching into lower-mid 90s for much of the area, and especially in the Wyoming Valley of PA.
As was already mentioned in the previous version of the discussion, better dynamics move in Friday evening and overnight with better lift as another warm front moves in with better chances of showers and thunderstorms. Shear looks to be good overnight with near 50 knots of 0-6 km shear but forecast soundings show stable air near the surface and elevated CAPE staying below 1000 J/kg with a low equilibrium level so severe thunderstorms are unlikely overnight. Precipitable water values will be over 1.5 inches and could approach 2 inches so heavy rainfall will be likely with showers and thunderstorms that do develop. Storm motions will be 20 to 30 knots so that will limit residence time of the higher rain rates but any training could lead to isolated/localized flash flooding potential Friday night into Saturday morning. The nocturnal timing of this frontal system brings into question how much instability can actually be realized, but the dynamics may provide the boost that would be needed.
The surface low passes north of the Region Saturday with a front dragging through NY and PA. Models are trending a bit faster with the exit of the front which may allow much of the area to actually dry out after the Friday night-early Saturday activity. That said, still some uncertainty in timing and thus we still hang on to some chances of showers and storms especially east of I-81. Pretty confident though that we dry out Saturday night as high pressure builds into the region.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
305 PM Update...
After a quiet Sunday, we may enter a more active pattern towards the middle of next week as heat and humidity interact with passing waves.
High pressure visits during the second half of the weekend with a pleasant day Sunday; highs of mid 70s-mid 80s with comfortable dewpoints.
Heat and humidity build quickly Monday into Tuesday via southwest flow on the edge of a ridge. With upper jet in vicinity and likely passing shortwaves, there will probably be triggers for convection Tuesday-Wednesday with heat and humidity available as fuel plus shear from the strong flow aloft.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through the majority of the 18Z TAF period. Current southerly gusty winds at the majority of terminals will taper off through this evening. A frontal boundary will bring rain and lowered ceilings to all CNY terminals overnight. Scattered showers and potentially isolated thunderstorms move in from the northwest after 00z. Visibilities may also be reduced if a heavier shower were to pass directly over a terminal. If showers reach AVP, it will be towards the end of this TAF period, but confidence is currently too low to include in this TAF package.
Southerly winds will be quite strong today with sustained speeds exceeding 10 kts and peak gusts of 20 to 25 kts. Winds will become calmer tonight. Guidance continues to bring low-level wind shear for RME for a couple hours between 02-04Z, so it's been included in this TAF package.
Outlook...
Wednesday night through Saturday Night...More unsettled pattern with chances of showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions.
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.
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Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KITH
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KITH
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KITH
Wind History graph: ITH
(wind in knots)
Binghamton, NY,
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