NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
No significant changes made with this update.

A stalled front remains across the forecast area. Aloft, a longwave trough will be centered across the mid section of the country, with a subtropical high anchored over the western Atlantic. This will keep the area very warm, humid, and generally dry.

With the aforementioned boundary and greatest instability along the coast today, latest CAMs do so show a few weak showers and/or thunderstorms. For the time though, plan to keep the mention out due to a strengthening mid level cap and relatively dry low-levels with inverted-V type soundings.

Along the coast, especially across eastern LI/SE CT, areas of fog will continue and might not completely clear out along the immediate coastline today.

Highs today will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, warmest across the urban corridor and into the interior. The immediate south shore of LI will be cooler. Heat indices will be lower today due to some drier air being mixed to the surface with dew points across the warmest locations dropping into the mid 60s. Coastal locations will generally remain in the lower 70s. Heat indices will encroach upon 95, mostly in the urban corridor of NE NJ, but spotty reading of 95 are possible for the NYC metro. No advisories planned to cover this afternoon.

Light winds with warm and humid air are expected to combine for another night of low clouds and fog for much of the area east of NYC tonight. Dewpoints are not expected to be as high as they were last night, so the extent of any dense fog is uncertain.
Not enough confidence to go with a dense fog advisory at this point, but this may eventually be needed for these areas east of the city. Dry, but muggy conditions otherwise for the entire area tonight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
Not much change during this time as the upper air pattern features a longwave trough centered over the mid section of the country and a subtropical high over the western Atlantic. There will be a gradual eastward translation during this time. Very warm and humid conditions will persist. Dew points will come back up everywhere into the lower 70s. There is increasing likelihood of widespread 95 or higher heat indices, especially from NYC and points north and west. Heat advisories may be issued later today for the Monday-Tuesday timeframe.

Fog/stratus will continue during the overnights across LI and coastal CT. Some of this may begin to expand farther in from the coast Monday night into Tuesday morning. Warm season fog typically is more of a coastal issue due to the warm, humid air moving across the cooler nearshore waters. However, with dew points in the lower 70s, light winds, and mainly clear skies, it may be factor even inland.

Scattered showers/thunderstorms will be reintroduced Tuesday afternoon as the airmass moistens and destabilizes. Best chances will be north and west of the NYC metro. Moderate cape, weak shear environment favors slow moving cells with the potential for downpours and pulse severe. The enhanced moisture with a stationary or nearly stationary front will bring a chance of widespread minor/poor drainage flooding as well. There's even a potential localized flash flooding.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A front lingers in the vicinity of the CWA Wednesday into Wednesday night with chances for showers and thunderstorms continuing under a mid-level ridge. Temperatures will be in the mid-80s to low-90s.

Beryl, which is currently on track to make landfall in Texas, is predicted by the NHC to rapidly weaken and devolve into a post- tropical depression by the time it reaches Arkansas late Tuesday.
From there it will weaken further and track towards and through the Great Lakes region on Thursday and Friday before dissolving completely. At the same time, a strong subtropical high over the Atlantic will be located directly to our east. The pressure gradient between these two opposing systems may lead to a 30-40 kt LLJ jet developing over our region Thursday and/or Friday which could lead to stronger S-SW flow with breezy winds. Blended NBM with NBM 90th to show the possibly increasing wind gusts in this time frame, bringing gusts of around 20-25 mph. The persistent S-SW flow created by these two systems could lead to a conveyer belt of moisture being advected into our region sourced from Florida and Georgia. The advection of moisture up the East Coast shows up well on GFS's IVT & IWV (Integrated Water Vapor Transport & Integrated Water Vapor)
which is a product meant to visualize atmospheric rivers. Overall, Anomalous to very anomalous PWATs max out around 2.2-2.7" depending on what model you look at. Exact values aside, ample moisture is expected to linger over the region Thursday and/or Friday. A stalled front expected to be over the region will help add lift and provide the decent chances for rain and/or convection. The problem is Beryl's track and timing varies depending on what model you look at.
The belt of moisture seen on global guidance also appears to be very narrow, so the location of potential heavy rainfall versus scattered rain and thunderstorms is hard to pinpoint this far out in time. For now, capped POPs at high-end chance on Thursday and Friday. Timing and location of rainfall will become better resolved by the models in the coming days.

Mostly zonal flow aloft is expected this weekend with a stalled frontal boundary persisting Saturday and possibly dissipating Sunday, allowing for more sunshine and warmer temperatures.
Temperatures late week into the start of the weekend are expected to reach the low/mid-80s then return into the mid-80s to low-90s on Sunday.

AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A frontal system remains stalled near or over the terminals today through Monday.

VFR for all terminals except KGON which is MVFR. Do expect continued improvement with a return to VFR by this afternoon, if not earlier. Will see a repeat tonight with more LIFR to IFR cigs and vsbys for KISP, KGON, KBDR and maybe KJFK, KLGA, KHPN.
VFR again Monday.

Isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening, but not widespread enough or predictable enough to include in TAFs.

North winds 5-10 kts this morning shifts to the SE-S late morning into the afternoon at 10 kt or less. Winds become light and variable again tonight. Monday, winds will again be S 5-10 kts.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon/evening, but not widespread enough or predictable enough to include in TAFs.

Uncertainty regarding timing of IFR cigs & vsbys Sunday night at KJFK and KLGA.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday PM through Thursday: Periods of MVFR OR IFR with showers/thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for Eastern LI Sound, the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet, and the adjacent bays through 2 pm. Although conditions have likely improved enough to cancel the advisory across the Great South Bay and central ocean waters, satellite imagery confirms that deteriorating conditions are not that far away. Additionally, the dense fog advisory might even need to be extended beyond 2pm for some zones.
Episodes of fog and low clouds across the waters will likely continue through the upcoming week.

With a relatively weak pressure gradient in place, conditions on the waters are expected to be below small craft advisory thresholds to start the week.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Thursday morning through Saturday afternoon, SCA conditions are expected on ocean waters with waves 4-6 feet, with near SCA gusts possible on either Thursday or Friday. The rest of the weekend sub- SCA conditions are expected.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through Monday night.

Increasing moisture ahead of an approaching frontal system will bring a chance of minor/poor drainage flooding as well as potential localized flash flooding Tuesday afternoon/evening to the north and west of NYC.

A strong band of anomalous moisture may set up along a stalled front Thursday and/or Friday with the chance for moderate to heavy rainfall. Confidence in this occurring is still low, but should become more confident in the coming days.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A moderate rip current risk is forecast today at the ocean beaches with southerly 5-10 kt winds and ocean waves of around 3-4 ft. For Monday, winds remain nearly the same as the previous day but with ocean seas further subsiding to near 2 to 3 ft, expect a low rip current risk.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331- 332-340-345-350-353.