Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 2:30 AM   Moonset 3:31 PM

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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 951 Am Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Rest of today - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south early this afternoon, then becoming northwest late. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms this afternoon. Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Tuesday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Wednesday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Thursday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 951 Am Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Synopsis - High pressure is expected to weaken and move into the western atlantic through the early part of the week with generally light winds except during the occasionally gusty evening easterly surges. The afternoon gulf seabreeze is expected to move inland and produce isolated to scattered showers and Thunderstorms daily that move back towards the coast in the evenings.

FXUS62 KTBW 021348 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 948 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 947 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Increased moisture today along with an upper level trough pushing over the state will allow for better storm chances with the highest PoPs south of I-4. The extra rain and cloud cover will help to keep temperatures away from any records but highs will still be around 90 degrees. No changes need to the forecast at this time.

DISCUSSION
An upper level trough is expected to move over the region today with additional energy to combine with the afternoon seabreeze boundaries to produce a chance of showers and thunderstorms areawide with highest PoPs in coastal areas from SW into S Tampa Bay area.

W Atlantic surface high pressure to remain in place and weaken next week with mean layer moisture increasing. Models have backed off on upper ridging and now only briefing nudging into the region Tuesday before general troughiness returns aloft mid to late week with next upper trough slowly moving thru the Eastern US.

This set up would allow for a more typical early summer scattered afternoon/evening storms and seabreeze pattern for much needed rainfall. But this solution carries some uncertainty with the ongoing persistent drought pattern and NBM wet bias to keep PoPs trimmed a bit and will see how the models progress in time.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 805 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period outside of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will be the biggest hazard to terminals today as thunderstorm chances have gone up. Highest confidence for thunderstorms on station will be at FMY and RSW where a TEMPO line was added but all terminals have a chance of seeing thunderstorms through the late afternoon and evening hours.

MARINE
High pressure is expected to weaken and move into the Western Atlantic through the early part of the week with generally light winds except during the occasionally gusty evening easterly surges. The afternoon Gulf seabreeze is expected to move inland and produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms daily that move back towards the coast in the evenings.

FIRE WEATHER
High pressure will weaken and remain over the region into next week with the warm conditions continuing along with a slow increase in low level moisture. The afternoon Gulf seabreeze is expected to move inland and produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms daily.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 75 92 76 / 50 60 40 20 FMY 92 72 93 74 / 60 60 60 40 GIF 92 72 93 72 / 50 50 50 10 SRQ 91 72 93 74 / 60 60 40 30 BKV 91 69 94 69 / 40 40 40 10 SPG 91 77 92 79 / 50 60 40 20

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Hillsborough Bay
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Sun -- 03:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:16 AM EDT     1.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:21 AM EDT     2.77 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:51 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
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Hillsborough Bay, Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Shell Point
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Sun -- 03:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:07 AM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:22 AM EDT     2.07 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:42 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Point, Tampa Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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