Sunrise 6:02 AM   Sunset 9:08 PM Moonrise 12:24 AM   Moonset 9:39 AM

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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0014.000000t0000z-240527t0230z/ 1002 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2024
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . Detroit river - .
the gusty showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
&&
lat - .lon 4266 8261 4264 8263 4256 8263 4254 8266 4238 8282 4236 8292 4237 8292 4240 8290 4250 8289 4256 8286 4259 8279 4262 8283 4266 8281 4270 8267 time - .mot - .loc 0201z 247deg 21kt 4242 8287 4233 8285 4225 8286

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 281750 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 150 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and possible storms late today into tomorrow

- Dry Thursday and Friday

- Showers Possible This Weekend, Mainly Saturday

- Warmer Early Next Week; Daily Storm Risk

DISCUSSION
Issued at 340 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

- Showers and possible storms late today into tomorrow

Today's weather pattern will be dominated by a large upper level low that is situated over eastern Canada. That low has a long wave trough that extends across the lower Peninsula. Copious mid level moisture will keep the region mostly cloudy today with periods of showers today. A weak upper level ridge could allow for some breaks in the clouds this afternoon, mainly along and west of the US 131 corridor.

Latest soundings are fairly moist through the sounding and although there isn't a ton of CAPE, there could be just enough mid level instability to allow for storms to develop late this afternoon into this evening, mainly along and east of the US 127 corridor. Cold air aloft behind this trough could allow for small hail with any storms.

Temperatures today continue to be below normal though potential breaks in the clouds should allow for Max Temps to get into the upper 60s to low 70s.

A secondary trough will drop down through the region tonight into Wednesday. A boundary will drape through southern Michigan with showers continuing tonight into tomorrow morning along and south of the I 94 corridor. Forecast QPF shouldn't be significant but upwards of a half an inch of rain is possible especially along the I 94 corridor.

- Dry Thursday and Friday

We'll have picture perfect weather to end the week as a Canadian surface high passes directly overhead. Dew points in the 30s/40s and highs 70 to 75 will make for pleasant daytime conditions, but also chilly overnight temps in the 40s. Even some colder reading in the mid to upr 30s and patchy front possible in nrn sections both Wednesday Thursday nights.

- Showers Possible This Weekend, Mainly Saturday

GFS/ECMWF are in a little better agreement now regarding weekend rain chances. Looks the main threat for showers comes on Saturday and is related to a shortwave which tracks northeast from the Central Plains and passes through lwr MI during the afternoon.
Southerly return flow on the back side of the departing sfc high sends a corridor of higher PWATs in ahead of the shortwave however instability looks quite limited so the thunder risk is low. A period of subsidence behind the Saturday wave may support a dry Sunday, although a few afternoon pop-up showers inland from Lk MI cannot be ruled out.

- Warmer Early Next Week; Daily Storm Risk

Guidance is in good agreement showing a return of above normal temps early next week as the main upper jet/stronger westerlies sets up to our north; near or just north of the U.S./Canadian border. Daily highs in the lower 80s are expected but rain chances/timing are difficult to nail down given zonal flow pattern and low predictability of potential shortwaves. Higher dew points and better instability should support a daily risk of diurnal storms though.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 150 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conditions are dominating across our terminals this afternoon, with some patches of some clouds around 2500-3000 ft agl. It seems that these are likely diurnal cumulus that are filling in the breaks in the other clouds from today. A few showers are starting to pop, with a storm not out of the question. We will stick with VCSH for now, and amend if it looks more likely a storm will directly impact a terminal.

The diurnal showers/storms will diminish toward sunset. Then overnight, another wave will be rotating just south of the area. A few more showers are forecast to develop, with a better concentration to the south closer to the wave. We have gone with prevailing showers across the south with some MVFR to accompany it. This should last until around 12z or so.

There may be another pop up shower tomorrow afternoon, with clouds holding in. The southern areas may keep MVFR until close to the end of the period.

MARINE
Issued at 344 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Waves have subsided for now so there are no current hazards.
However the gradient will strengthen Wednesday. Winds will be predominately from the north. Expect that gradient to continue to increase into Wednesday afternoon. Winds and waves should increase enough for conditions to increase to criteria Wednesday afternoon and evening.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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