Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lewiston, ID
July 3, 2024 3:29 AM PDT (10:29 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 4:59 AM Sunset 8:45 PM Moonrise 2:28 AM Moonset 7:24 PM |
FXUS66 KOTX 031018 AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 318 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
Mountain showers, seasonal temperatures, and breezy winds will recur through Wednesday. Confidence is increasing in a substantial long duration heatwave starting after July 4th. It is expected to last through midweek.
DISCUSSION
Today through Thursday: High pressure is strengthening off the Western US coastline placing the Inland NW under persistent northwest flow aloft.
A 80-90kt jet will be in place through Wednesday night with the jet migrating slowly to the north/northeast. This will keep a small threat for weaker disturbances to slide through far NE WA and N ID but nothing as organized as late Tuesday night where clusters of storms tracked between Colville-Deer Park-Sandpoint- Prichard.
This convective activity was also being escorted by 4 Celsius of cooling at 500mb which cooled from near -15C to -18C overnight.
Today, the pendulum will begin to swing the opposite direction warming from -18C this morning to -16C in the afternoon.
Consequently, showers and storms will redevelop over far NE WA and N ID around midday (with greater expansion southward into the Silver and St Joe Valleys) however cloud depths will shrink with time given the subtle warming aloft and most CAM models are showing just a few cells lingering after 6PM along the ID-MT border. One of the outlying CAMS does show a few cells in the Upper Columbia Basin but this comes with very low confidence.
CAPES this afternoon will be several magnitudes lower topping out between 200-400 J/kg for the aforementioned areas. For much of Central and Southeastern WA, it will be another warm and dry day with temperatures in the 80s. Winds will not be as strong as Tuesday but still on the breezy side with gusts up to 20 mph. Wind direction will be from the west and northwest. The Cascade Gaps should anticipate another push of winds enhanced in the early evening from the west and northwest with gusts up to 30 mph.
Overall, the HRRR is showing far less coverage for joint probabilities of winds greater than 15 mph and humidity levels between 20%.
On Thursday, the offshore ridge will begin to expand inland.
Temperatures continue to warm aloft and any threat for showers or weak t-storms will migrate toward Bonners Ferry and points north and east. Therefore, the majority of the Inland NW will be under stable weather conditions with temperatures warming a handful of degrees, topping out in the 80s to lower 90s. Winds will weaken with speeds largely below 10 mph. The evening will feature mostly clear skies, light winds, and temperatures ranging from the 50-70s. The benign weather conditions will make for a gorgeous evening to celebrate with friends and family for 4th of July festivities. /sb
Friday through Wednesday: Clusters are in excellent agreement for the onset of the heatwave beginning late this week into the weekend.
The ridge axis Friday is progged off the coast of western Washington. Temperatures Friday peak will in the upper 80s to upper 90s. There is some potential for pockets of 100 degree high temperatures Friday (Wenatchee: 55%, Moses Lake: 25%, Lewiston: 75%). By Saturday the cluster guidance shows a deepening ridge still off the Washington coast. High temperatures will be in the low 90s to low 100s Saturday.
By Sunday, 80% of the clusters move the ridge axis into at least Western Washington with a small portion of them (15%) showing the axis centered over central Washington. Temperatures Sunday will be in the mid 90s to mid 100s. If the ridge axis is centered over central or eastern Washington by Sunday like 15% of the ensemble shows, we could push upper 90s to upper 100s. The remaining 20% of the clusters still have the ridge offshore Sunday. An offshore ridge Sunday would yield temperatures in the low 90s to low 100s similar to Saturday.
70% of the clusters bring the ridge axis over central Washington to northern Idaho by Monday/Tuesday which would maximize our HeatRisk.
Temperatures would be widespread 100 degrees or more (expect for Idaho). Parts of the L-C valley have a 30-60% chance of 110 degrees or more Monday/Tuesday. There is an even 50-50 split headed into Wednesday and beyond with the position of the ridge over central Montana or still over us. The ridge axis still over us Wednesday would yield the temperatures similar to Monday/Tuesday. Butler
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: Scattered showers and isolated t-storms will dissipate in coverage after dark over NE WA and N ID. Some lingering showers may drift south by the Spokane to Coeur d'Alene area, but for the most part it is expected to be dry at TAF sites. Gusty winds will abate. However some localized LLWS is possible, including near MWH and PUW. Some patchy fog is possible in the sheltered northeast valleys later overnight/early Wednesday from the rain showers. TAF sites are projected to be VFR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions. Lows confidence in dying showers slipping south by GEG, SFF, COE late this evening/overnight.
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Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/ www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Spokane 83 54 87 58 92 62 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 79 53 84 57 88 61 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 78 52 84 54 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 87 60 93 64 98 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 81 47 85 50 90 54 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 76 49 81 52 85 55 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 74 56 79 59 84 61 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 88 55 93 61 99 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 88 60 92 65 99 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 88 57 93 61 99 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...Excessive Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for Coeur d'Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.
WA...Excessive Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Blue Mountains-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse- Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 318 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
Mountain showers, seasonal temperatures, and breezy winds will recur through Wednesday. Confidence is increasing in a substantial long duration heatwave starting after July 4th. It is expected to last through midweek.
DISCUSSION
Today through Thursday: High pressure is strengthening off the Western US coastline placing the Inland NW under persistent northwest flow aloft.
A 80-90kt jet will be in place through Wednesday night with the jet migrating slowly to the north/northeast. This will keep a small threat for weaker disturbances to slide through far NE WA and N ID but nothing as organized as late Tuesday night where clusters of storms tracked between Colville-Deer Park-Sandpoint- Prichard.
This convective activity was also being escorted by 4 Celsius of cooling at 500mb which cooled from near -15C to -18C overnight.
Today, the pendulum will begin to swing the opposite direction warming from -18C this morning to -16C in the afternoon.
Consequently, showers and storms will redevelop over far NE WA and N ID around midday (with greater expansion southward into the Silver and St Joe Valleys) however cloud depths will shrink with time given the subtle warming aloft and most CAM models are showing just a few cells lingering after 6PM along the ID-MT border. One of the outlying CAMS does show a few cells in the Upper Columbia Basin but this comes with very low confidence.
CAPES this afternoon will be several magnitudes lower topping out between 200-400 J/kg for the aforementioned areas. For much of Central and Southeastern WA, it will be another warm and dry day with temperatures in the 80s. Winds will not be as strong as Tuesday but still on the breezy side with gusts up to 20 mph. Wind direction will be from the west and northwest. The Cascade Gaps should anticipate another push of winds enhanced in the early evening from the west and northwest with gusts up to 30 mph.
Overall, the HRRR is showing far less coverage for joint probabilities of winds greater than 15 mph and humidity levels between 20%.
On Thursday, the offshore ridge will begin to expand inland.
Temperatures continue to warm aloft and any threat for showers or weak t-storms will migrate toward Bonners Ferry and points north and east. Therefore, the majority of the Inland NW will be under stable weather conditions with temperatures warming a handful of degrees, topping out in the 80s to lower 90s. Winds will weaken with speeds largely below 10 mph. The evening will feature mostly clear skies, light winds, and temperatures ranging from the 50-70s. The benign weather conditions will make for a gorgeous evening to celebrate with friends and family for 4th of July festivities. /sb
Friday through Wednesday: Clusters are in excellent agreement for the onset of the heatwave beginning late this week into the weekend.
The ridge axis Friday is progged off the coast of western Washington. Temperatures Friday peak will in the upper 80s to upper 90s. There is some potential for pockets of 100 degree high temperatures Friday (Wenatchee: 55%, Moses Lake: 25%, Lewiston: 75%). By Saturday the cluster guidance shows a deepening ridge still off the Washington coast. High temperatures will be in the low 90s to low 100s Saturday.
By Sunday, 80% of the clusters move the ridge axis into at least Western Washington with a small portion of them (15%) showing the axis centered over central Washington. Temperatures Sunday will be in the mid 90s to mid 100s. If the ridge axis is centered over central or eastern Washington by Sunday like 15% of the ensemble shows, we could push upper 90s to upper 100s. The remaining 20% of the clusters still have the ridge offshore Sunday. An offshore ridge Sunday would yield temperatures in the low 90s to low 100s similar to Saturday.
70% of the clusters bring the ridge axis over central Washington to northern Idaho by Monday/Tuesday which would maximize our HeatRisk.
Temperatures would be widespread 100 degrees or more (expect for Idaho). Parts of the L-C valley have a 30-60% chance of 110 degrees or more Monday/Tuesday. There is an even 50-50 split headed into Wednesday and beyond with the position of the ridge over central Montana or still over us. The ridge axis still over us Wednesday would yield the temperatures similar to Monday/Tuesday. Butler
AVIATION
06Z TAFS: Scattered showers and isolated t-storms will dissipate in coverage after dark over NE WA and N ID. Some lingering showers may drift south by the Spokane to Coeur d'Alene area, but for the most part it is expected to be dry at TAF sites. Gusty winds will abate. However some localized LLWS is possible, including near MWH and PUW. Some patchy fog is possible in the sheltered northeast valleys later overnight/early Wednesday from the rain showers. TAF sites are projected to be VFR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions. Lows confidence in dying showers slipping south by GEG, SFF, COE late this evening/overnight.
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/ www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Spokane 83 54 87 58 92 62 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 79 53 84 57 88 61 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 78 52 84 54 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 87 60 93 64 98 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 81 47 85 50 90 54 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 76 49 81 52 85 55 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 74 56 79 59 84 61 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 88 55 93 61 99 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 88 60 92 65 99 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 88 57 93 61 99 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...Excessive Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for Coeur d'Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.
WA...Excessive Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Blue Mountains-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse- Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KLWS
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KLWS
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KLWS
Wind History graph: LWS
(wind in knots)
Spokane, WA,
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