Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 1:58 AM   Moonset 3:16 PM

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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 142 Pm Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
This afternoon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of showers late. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers after midnight. Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Mon night - S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Tue night - SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Wed - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 142 Pm Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
on and off showers and Thunderstorms are expected through at least midweek, with the best chances for storms over the marine area being Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Expecting benign marine conditions outside of any Thunderstorms.

FXUS61 KAKQ 021742 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 142 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
An upper level trough will bring the chance for a few showers this evening into tonight. Afterwards, a weak surface low will allow for scattered showers and storms Monday afternoon.
Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday with scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday and Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 140 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- A few light showers are possible this evening into tonight.

Current wx analysis depicts a dampening upper shortwave moving toward the area from the west, with an upper ridge axis just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Sfc high pressure has pushed offshore, and while temps are only a couple degrees warmer than yesterday, dew points have risen into the upper 50s-mid 60s.
Scattered showers to our west have struggled to push into the area so far. As that shortwave tracks across the area this evening-tonight, isolated to widely scattered showers are possible (mainly west of I-95 through the evening before the highest precip chances shift toward the coast/eastern shore overnight). With meager CAPE values around 100-500 J/kg, will continue to leave thunder out of the forecast. Areal average precipitation amounts through tonight will generally be 0.10" or less. Overnight lows will range through the 60s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 355 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Storm chances are increasing for Monday afternoon.

- A few isolated showers and storms are possible Tuesday afternoon.

Instability increases on Mon as dewpoints rise into the upper 60s. A surface low forms over central VA Mon afternoon, allowing for enough surface convergence for scattered storms in the afternoon. CAMs have trended higher in coverage for storms Mon afternoon. As such, confidence has increased enough to add likely PoPs for areas generally along and E of I-95 and along I-64 in central to SE VA (the surface low looks to track near/along the I-64 corridor). RIC is on the edge and may be increased to likely PoPs in future updates. Forecast soundings show modest deep layer shear around 20- 25 kt amidst 2000-2500 J/kg SBCAPE, allowing for slow storm motions with RM motions of 10-15 mph. As such, expect a classic summertime day with scattered afternoon pop-up thunderstorms across the area.
Given slow (nearly stationary) storm motions, heavy rain is possible with any storms as well as strong winds from wet downdrafts. While SPC and WPC don't currently have a severe or flash flooding risk, cannot rule out a few locally strong wind gusts and/or localized ponding of water on roadways. Any showers/storms taper off Mon evening.

High pressure slides S from New England to the Mid Atlantic coastline on Tue which allows a bit of a weak backdoor cold front to push inland. A few isolated showers/storms are possible mainly along this front/wind shift boundary as winds become E behind it with lower dews. As such, expect the shower/storm potential to shift W through the afternoon into the evening. Highs Tue aren't expected to change much from Mon (mid 80s) apart from the Eastern Shore which may only reach mid 70s E to around 80F W. Lows in the 60s are expected both nights.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 405 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled weather continues midweek with scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday and Thursday.

- Seasonally warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s each day.

Aloft, a ridge briefly builds across the East Coast through midweek before a cutoff low moves SE into the Great Lakes and interior New England from mid to late week. As the upper level low approaches, a series of shortwaves move through, providing chances for scattered showers and storms (mainly Wed and Thu). Both Wed and Thu have PoPs of 40-55% with scattered afternoon storms possible both days. Wed features a prefrontal trough and Thu features a cold front approaching from the W as well as the aforementioned exiting prefrontal trough. Models have trended faster with the convection on Thu with the best chance for afternoon storms across E portions of the FA (associated with the prefrontal trough). The cold front itself now looks to hold off until Thu night/early Fri with additional convection from the front uncertain given current timing. Depending on where the front ends up by Fri afternoon, additional storms are possible across SE VA/NE NC. Lower PoPs exist Sat and Sun given the upper level low potentially too close to the local area for sufficient forcing/instability. Otherwise, seasonally warm all week with highs mainly in the mid-upper 80s each day and lows mainly in the 60s.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 140 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions continue through much of the 18z TAF period. Dry wx continues through early evening before isolated-scattered showers overspread the area from west to east tonight. Only brief MVFR VSBY restrictions are expected at most with the showers. There may be a short period of MVFR CIGs Mon AM at RIC/SBY, but confidence in MVFR CIGs is highest NW of the terminals. SW winds will occasionally gust to 20 kt through early evening before diminishing to 5-10 kt tonight-Mon AM.

Chances for scattered showers and storms increase Mon afternoon into Mon evening with brief IFR-LIFR VSBYs and gusty winds possible (especially INVOF PHF/ORF where PoPs are 60%). Tue looks mostly dry at the terminals with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible across the Piedmont. Otherwise, additional afternoon/evening tstms are possible on Wed/Thu.

MARINE
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

-An unsettled weather pattern will develop across the region to start the new week.

High pressure continues to shift offshore early this morning. As a result, south/southwesterly winds have picked up in speed slightly to 14-17kt with gusts up to 20kt. Based on trends and hi-res guidance, this will persist until mid-morning before subsiding.
Still expecting conditions to remain below SCA thresholds across the area, though can't rule out a few spots briefly bumping to 18-20kt sustained. Otherwise, winds will be southwesterly during the day before becoming more southerly in the late evening/overnight. As the shortwave passes through during this timeframe, there could be another brief, spotty uptick in wind speeds to 15-20kt, especially across the coastal waters. Again, sub-SCA conditions are expected.
Additionally, rain chances will push in from the west this afternoon with scattered showers and storms being possible as the shortwave slowly crosses the region. It appears that Monday will have a slightly better chance of showers and storms as the shortwave lingers before pushing offshore. These storms will be capable of producing strong, erratic wind gusts over the local waters. Moisture will remain in place through at least mid-week as a warm front gradually lifts northward, so rain and storm chances remain in the forecast each day.

With generally benign marine conditions outside of any thunderstorms, seas are expected to remain at 2-3ft through mid- week. Waves in the Bay will fluctuate between 1 and 2 ft.

A low risk of rip currents is expected at all local beaches today and Monday. The flow looks to become onshore by Tuesday, which could potentially create some nuisance coastal flooding in spots. We will continue to monitor these trends.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Wachapreague
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Sun -- 02:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:28 AM EDT     4.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:32 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:05 PM EDT     4.85 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Wachapreague, Wachapreague Channel, Virginia, Tide feet

Gaskins Point
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Sun -- 02:17 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:42 AM EDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:20 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:16 PM EDT     2.04 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Gaskins Point, Occohannock Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet

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