Sunrise 5:18 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 5:20 PM   Moonset 2:30 AM

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ANZ350 Moriches Inlet Ny To Montauk Point Ny Out 20 Nm- 317 Pm Edt Tue Jun 18 2024
Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 11 seconds. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 11 seconds. Wed night - SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 10 seconds. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds.Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: sw 3 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. Fri - SW winds around 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: sw 3 ft at 5 seconds and se 3 ft at 8 seconds. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms. Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms. Sat night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Chance of showers and tstms. Sun - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Chance of tstms. Sun night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 317 Pm Edt Tue Jun 18 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure over the western atlantic remains in control through late this week. A cold front moves in from northwest on Friday and stalls over the area to begin the weekend. The front then moves back north as a warm front on Sunday.

FXUS61 KOKX 181954 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 354 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over the western Atlantic remains in control through late this week. A cold front moves in from northwest on Friday and stalls over the area to begin the weekend. The front then moves back north as a warm front on Sunday. A more potent cold front approaches for Monday and moves through Monday night. High pressure returns on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
Upper level anticyclone/ridging continues to build aloft tonight with high pressure over the Western Atlantic. A weak trigger in the form of differential heating to our northwest has initiated some isolated convection just NW of Orange County.
The building heights and middle level cap will prevent this activity from organizing and moving into western Orange. Have left PoPs out of Western Orange County for now. Otherwise, dry and warm conditions are expected tonight. Dew points have been running a degree or two higher this afternoon, but expecting them to mix out a bit into the lower 60s this evening and tonight as subsidence and some drier air advects north around the surface high. Lows will be in the middle to upper 60s for most spots with some low 70s in the NYC metro.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Heat Advisories remain in effect across NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and interior CT through Thursday evening.

*Key Messages*

*Heat wave is expected to continue through at least Thursday, but model guidance has continues to trend down a bit in recent cycles with temperatures and dew points.

*Temperatures across NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley, and interior CT reach the lower and middle 90s with heat indices 95 to 98.
Most places should remain below 100 for max heat index both Wednesday and Thursday.

*Temperatures in the NYC metro should reach 88-93, highest on Thursday. Peak heat index values in NYC metro now look to be 91-94 on Thursday with some isolated areas touching 95. Due to limited coverage of reaching 95, have held off on expanding the heat advisory into the NYC metro.

*Onshore flow will keep much of Long Island and coastal CT a bit cooler both Wednesday and Thursday. Highs should top out in the middle to upper 80s with heat indices around 90. Portions of NW Long Island may be a bit warmer, but should fall short of 95 heat index.

The core of the upper anticyclone/ridge will set up right over the region on Wednesday. A general consensus of the latest guidance indicates 500 mb heights will peak around 596dm-598dm Wednesday into Wednesday night, which is close to the observed max for KOKX per the SPC Sounding Climatology. However, the highest temperatures and dew points look to remain north of the area due to the orientation of the flow around the upper anticyclone. The center of the anticyclone will start to shift to the south and west on Thursday, but moreso Thursday night into the end of the week.

The NBM has continued to shrink the spread in the temperature distribution for both Wednesday and Thursday with the deterministic nearly the 50th percentile for both days. This has led to increased confidence that the current heat advisory looks good with locations across NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley, and interior CT reaching the lower to middle 90s and heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. Onshore flow likely holds temperatures down just enough over much of the NYC metro and coast to prevent heat indices from reaching 95 on Wednesday. In fact, highs for the NYC metro have trended down and could struggle to exceed 90 on Wednesday.

Similar concerns are present on Thursday. While actual air temperatures may rise another few degrees from Wednesday, they still have lowered in the NBM with much smaller spread. Dew points should be a bit higher, but not seeing widespread upper 60s and lower 70s to help push max heat indices into advisory levels for the metro. Higher temperatures for NE NJ and inland areas in combo with middle to upper 60s dew points will help heat indices reach the middle to upper 90s supporting the ongoing Advisory. It looks like the higher dewpoint/humidity air will begin pooling to our north along an approaching front from the north on Thursday, but any convection should remain outside of the area.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
**Key Points**

* Heat wave will likely be broken up to some degree Friday and Saturday, but still quite warm and humid. The chances for showers and thunderstorms has increased for the second half of Friday into a portion of Saturday.

* Sunday looks to likely be the hottest day with more widespread heat and humidity.

* The humidity gets broken late Monday into Tuesday, with a round of showers and thunderstorms.

The latest trend of note in the numerical guidance is a trending further south of a cold front into our area during Friday and into the early portion of the weekend. NWP global guidance and some of the short range guidance like the RGEM point to a cold front sagging further south now, with QPF and reflectivity output pointing towards showers and storms for Friday afternoon and evening. With PWATs rather high, 1.75 to 2 inches any storms to begin the period could produce locally heavy rainfall as a cold front sags south and likely stalls to some degree into Friday evening / night. See hydro section for further details. With the front nearby and the area still not out of the humid air mass on Saturday look for more showers and storms to fire up and likely be scattered across the area. Not a wash out, but in and out of sun and clouds with scattered convection still being a good bet.

By Saturday night into Sunday morning thickness ridging is indicated by the consensus of the guidance. This should lead to the warm front lifting north and putting our areas purely in the warm sector. 5kft temps are progged by global NWP to get to around 19-20 C. If this transpires on more of a lower level SW flow Sunday looks to be the warmest day of the heat spell in terms of widespread 95 heat indices. Interior portions of the area and possibly the metro could very well see heat indices between 100 and 105 given the warm front getting well to the north. Questions remain around the timing of a lead shortwave / pre-frontal trough ahead of the main mid / upper level shortwave feature for late Sunday. Thought it prudent to at least carry chance PoPs, especially further NW for later Sunday as things destabilize through the day. The primary threats for any storms later Sunday would likely be strong winds and heavy rain. The main shortwave / trough then pivots through into Monday as a stronger cold front pushes through with the ongoing chance of convection. By Monday night into Tuesday things should improve from west to east, with less humid conditions with clearing skies. It will still be quite warm on Tuesday with increased mixing and downsloping on a westerly component to the wind, but the humidity should be lower.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure remains in place offshore midweek.

VFR through the TAF period.

S-SW flow 10-15 kt into the early evening, and gusts 20-25 kt at coastal terminals. Winds drop below 10 kt tonight. Speeds just a tad lighter on Wednesday, near 10 kt, with gusts up to 20 kt possible by late afternoon.

An isolated shower or thunderstorm remains possible at KSWF late this afternoon, but confidence is low in occurrence.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Start and end timing of gusts could be a couple of hours.

The afternoon KJFK, KLGA, and KEWR haze potential is YELLOW, which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of a cloud.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday PM and Thursday: VFR. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into early evening.

Friday thru Sunday: Potential for MVFR or lower conditions in showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon/evening hours.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Strong S flow due to afternoon sea breeze circulations may push wind gusts around 20 kt nearshore across the NY Harbor and ocean waters into this evening and then again both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Otherwise, conditions will remain below SCA levels through the end of the week.

Sub small craft conditions will continue through Friday night with a S to SW wind. As a cold front moves nearby and perhaps over the waters the winds will likely be more out of the SE for Saturday with ocean seas getting closer to 4 ft. Marginal small craft seas for the ocean waters are then expected Saturday night into Sunday. Marginal small craft gusts are then possible for the ocean waters during Sunday afternoon.

HYDROLOGY
A cold front will bring scattered showers and t-storms for Friday and possibly Friday night. Some storms could linger, although likely won't be as widespread on Saturday. Any stronger storms will likely produce locally heavy rainfall with a low risk of localized flash flooding. This will depend on the speed of the storms which is too early to assess at this time. Another round of storms is possible late Sunday and again into Monday with uncertainty around potential hydrologic impacts.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There is a moderate rip current risk for the western ocean beaches, and a low rip current risk for the Suffolk ocean beaches on Wednesday. There will be a moderate rip current risk for all ocean beaches on Thursday.

CLIMATE
Here are current record high temperatures for Wednesday through Friday.

Wednesday, June 19

NYC: 98(1994)
LGA: 97(1994)
JFK: 98(1994)
EWR: 102(1994)
ISP: 96(1994)
BDR: 96(1994)

Thursday, June 20

NYC: 98(1923)
LGA: 98(2012)
JFK: 94(2012)
EWR: 98(2012)
ISP: 93(1995)
BDR: 93(1953)

Friday, June 21

NYC: 97(1988)
LGA: 98(2012)
JFK: 97(2012)
EWR: 100(1953)
ISP: 95(2012)
BDR: 96(2012)

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ005-006.
Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ007-008.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ067>070.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108.
MARINE...None.

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Promised Land
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Tue -- 01:39 AM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:30 AM EDT     Moonset
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Tue -- 01:31 PM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
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Montauk
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